To All,
Good Saturday Morning May 6 2023.
I hope you all have a great weekend
Regards,
Skip
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This day in Naval and Marine Corps History May 6
1860 The sloop-of-war Portsmouth, commanded by John Calhoun, captures the slaver brig Falmouth off Porto Praya.
1908 The Great White Fleet anchors in San Francisco Bay, Calif. The fleet is delayed from its round-the-world cruise after both Rear Adm. Robley D. Evans and Rear Adm. Charles M. Thomas fall ill. On May 15, Rear Adm. Charles S. Sperry assumed command and completes the cruise ending Feb. 22, 1909.
1916 The first ship-to-shore radio telephone voice conversation was held on board USS New Hampshire (BB 25) off the Virginia Capes.
1944 USS Buckley (DE 51) rams German submarine U 66 while TBMs (VC 55) from USS Block Island (CVE 21) attack U 66 near Cape Verdes.
1945 USS Farquhar (DE 139) sinks the last German submarine, U 881, in the North Atlantic.
1995 USNS Laramie (T-AO 203) is launched at the Avondale Shipyard, Inc. at New Orleans, La. The Henry J. Kaiser-class underway replenishment oiler is operated by the Military Sealift Command. The Laramie enters non-commissioned U.S. Navy service May 7, 1996.
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This Day in World History May 6
1527 German troops begin sacking Rome. Libraries are destroyed, the Pope is captured and thousands are killed.
1529 Babur defeats the Afghan Chiefs in the Battle of Ghaghra, India.
1682 King Louis XIV moves his court to Versailles, France.
1856 U.S. Army troops from Fort Tejon and Fort Miller prepare to ride out to protect Keyesville, California, from Yokut Indian attack.
1861 Arkansas becomes the ninth state to secede from the Union.
1862 Henry David Thoreau dies of tuberculosis at age 44.
1864 In the second day of the Battle of the Wilderness between Union General Ulysses S. Grant and Confederate General Robert E. Lee, Confederate Gen. James Longstreet is wounded by his own men.
1877Chief Crazy Horse surrenders to U.S. troops in Nebraska. Crazy Horse brought General George Custer to his end.
1937 The dirigible Hindenburg explodes in flames at Lakehurst, New Jersey.
1941 Bob Hope gives his first USO show at California's March Field.
1942 General Jonathan Wainwright surrenders Corregidor to the Japanese.
1944 The Red Army besieges and captures Sevastopol in the Crimea.
1945 Axis Sally makes her final propaganda broadcast to Allied troops.
1954 British runner Roger Bannister breaks the four minute mile.
1960 President Dwight D. Eisenhower signs the Civil Rights Act of 1960.
1962 The first nuclear warhead is fired from a Polaris submarine.
1994 The Channel Tunnel linking England to France is officially opened.
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To Dutch and the Bear
For all—I have received some great pictures of The Bear and Dutch together on his mountain In Ogden Utah. I wish them both a great time as they have provided many inputs to the list and the Windmillers over the last couple of decades.
ROLLING THUNDER REMEMBERED Thanks to the Bear … Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…
From the archives of rollingthunderremembered.com post
Skip… For The List for Saturday, 6 May 2023… Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)
From the archives of rollingthunderremembered.com post for 6 May 1968… Bombing as the big bargaining chip at "the peace table"…
This following work accounts for every fixed wing loss of the Vietnam War and you can use it to read more about the losses in The Bear's Daily account. Even better it allows you to add your updated information to the work to update for history…skip
Vietnam Air Losses
Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at: https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.
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For all the Bubbas
Thanks to Micro. All the bubbas at breakfast yesterday morning have the same thoughts
Author unknown
They won't let me fly jet fighters anymore!
They won't let me fly their jet fighters anymore. The day after I no longer pulled 5-6 Gs (or more) multiple times every day, my middle started expanding. It hasn't stopped. First my toes disappeared, and then the equipment in the Nether Regions disappeared except on outstanding occasions. My feet might as well be in China. My toenails are turning into claws.
The ladies no longer look at my ass as I walk by.
My eyesight has started to fade. I once had the best vision of anyone I ever flew with except Chuck Yeager. He could see another aircraft at 60 miles and I could not see it until 50 miles. And he was older than me. I guess that is why he was an Ace.
The music has faded. Twenty-five years in close proximity of screaming jet engines will do more damage to your hearing than a rock band. The VA gave me some very nice hearing aids but I don't wear the damned things. I don't want to look like an old man. However, it can be a blessing when I piss off my roommate.
My prostate started to enlarge and I have to pee every 5 minutes. Speaking of which: The pressure is too low, the hose is too short, and the nozzle is set on spray. I find it advisable to sit down to pee to avoid getting Wet Foot Syndrome. I know the location of every publicly accessible bathroom within 100 miles.
My gyro tumbled and I have vertigo. I have had it many times while flying in Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) weather but this is different. This is Visual Flight Rules (VFR) weather all the time. I walk like a drunken sailor. My golfing days are over. My back swing would put me flat of my back. A walker may not be far in the future.
If I were to find myself on the ground in the middle of an empty Wal-Mart parking lot, I would not be able to get up onto my feet. The legs are just not there anymore. I would have to crawl to a shopping cart or fence to pull myself up.
My smoking days finally caught up with me and I have emphysema/COPD. I used to cuss while climbing out returning from North Vietnam if I was so high that my Zippo lighter would not light so I could have a smoke to help me come down from an adrenaline high. I have had to go on oxygen in order to have enough to live. It is a real bummer to have to haul a bottle of O2 around with me when I go out of the house. I wear a nose harness at home and drag a plastic tube around and an oxygen concentrator out in the garage runs 24/7. The tube is always snagging on something or someone steps on the damn thing and it almost jerks me ears off. Don't get me wrong. I like oxygen. I used to really like it after a night of serious partying when I had an early morning mission. As soon as I got into the cockpit I went on 100% O2 for startup, taxi, and weapons arming pit. By the time I had wheels up I was ready to fight.
My sex life is 99.9% in my head. But I think that is pretty normal for the male population, which thinks about sex on the average about every 10 seconds. At least that has always been my average.
And they won't let me fly their jet fighters anymore.
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Thanks to Brett
GEOPOLITICAL DIGEST
MAY 05, 2023
THE WEEK AHEAD
Japan's Leader Visits South Korea. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul on 7 May for a two-day visit. The visit signifies the resumption of shuttle diplomacy between the neighboring countries after more than a decade of fraught relations. Yoon and Kishida are expected to discuss national security issues, including North Korea and China, as well as high-tech collaboration, particularly in advanced semiconductors supply chains. Tokyo and Seoul's historical grievances have long hindered trilateral security cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the United States. The resumption of positive relations is thus a boon for Washington, especially as it looks to counter China's military influence in the Asia-Pacific.
Russia Observes Victory Day as the Ukrainian Offensive Looms. Russia will mark its most important holiday on 9 May, Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. While Russia has canceled many traditional 9 May parades and related events across the country due to security concerns, President Vladimir Putin will as customary speak at the parade on Red Square. Compared with last year, the parade will likely be even more emotionally charged amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, where speculation is swirling that Ukrainian troops will soon launch a counteroffensive -- particularly following a 5 May decision by Russian occupation authorities to evacuate civilians in the Zaporizhzhia region, a likely target of the offensive. Ukraine's offensive is unlikely to commence before the holiday to avoid providing Putin political grounds to announce new mobilization measures during the speech, an otherwise unlikely move due to the unpopularity of such measures.
US National Security Advisor Visits Saudi Arabia. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is traveling to Saudi Arabia on 6 May for a meeting with Saudi and Emirati officials. The trip comes as U.S.-Saudi ties continue to fray over Saudi Arabia's independent energy strategy, human rights record and intervention in the civil war in Yemen. But the United States nonetheless remains eager to patch up ties amid growing concerns that Saudi Arabia is drifting toward US rival China, which in 2022 was also the largest market for Saudi oil exports. Riyadh sees its growing ties with Beijing as a move toward greater independence as opposed to joining any given geopolitical bloc. But as long as the United States is unwilling to give Saudi Arabia needed security and political guarantees, there's little Sullivan can do to arrest this drift and restore Washington's once-close relationship with the oil-rich Arab Gulf state.
Please read on for some of our coverage of the week that was...
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Key Developments - Analysis • Other Stories We're Tracking - Curated Content
KEY DEVELOPMENTS - ANALYSIS
Zaporizhzhia Occupation Authority Orders Evacuation of Frontline Areas
What Happened: Russian occupation authorities ordered the evacuation of all children and parents, elderly people, disabled people and hospital patients from 18 settlements near the front line in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, The Moscow Times reported on 5 May. The Russian-installed head of the Zaporizhzhia region said the decision was due to increased Ukrainian shelling that had damaged civilian infrastructure, and claimed the move was "temporary."
Why It Matters: The evacuation, and the insistence on its being a temporary measure, is reminiscent of Russia's evacuation of civilians from the Kherson region in October 2022 across the Dnieper River prior to Ukraine's successful recapture of the region the following month, as well as of Russia's evacuations of civilians from the Russian-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in February 2022 before the Russian invasion began. This means the evacuation is very likely related to Ukraine's impending counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, and strongly suggests that the Zaporizhzhia region will be the primary target of the counteroffensive.
COP28 President Calls for Phaseout of Fossil Fuel Emissions, Not Fossil Fuels
What Happened: COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber called for the phasing out of "fossil fuel emissions" in a 2 May speech in Berlin that laid out an agenda for the upcoming climate conference that included remarks regarding the development of technologies to reduce emissions (e.g., carbon capture and storage) rather than phasing out fossil fuels. Al-Jaber said he wants to "supercharge" global climate finance, reaching a $100 billion goal for a fund to help countries adapt to climate change that developed countries had agreed in 2009 that they would reach by 2020, but which had only hit about $83.3 billion by the missed deadline.
Why It Matters: Al-Jaber's remarks indicate how he and the United Arab Emirates will attempt to steer the discussion ahead of and at COP28 regarding the phaseout of fossil fuels. Despite a push led by European leaders in 2022, no statement regarding the phaseout of fossil fuels at COP27 was included in the conference's final statement; in March 2023, EU member states agreed to try again at COP28. By focusing on emissions, the United Arab Emirates and al-Jaber -- who also heads Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. -- are trying to get global support for continued investment in oil and gas production and to fend off pressure to include more direct language about phasing out fossil fuels. Major oil producers -- including Western oil companies -- and other large emitters (such as power plant owners) are eyeing carbon capture and storage technologies as a way to reduce emissions to zero without having to stop burning fossil fuels, though much uncertainty remains regarding the impact and cost viability of such plans.
Russia Likely to Resume Yuan Purchases for First Time Since Ukraine War
What Happened: Russia's Finance Ministry will likely resume purchasing Chinese yuan this month or later this year, the first time it has done so since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on 1 May.
Why It Matters: Russia has been selling yuan to cover its budget deficit, but its sales have been falling in recent months, suggesting that Russia needs more yuan -- the most viable currency with which it can conduct foreign transactions amid Western sanctions. The main factors driving the policy change are increased Russian revenue from oil sales and greater taxes levied on oil and gas companies, which have shored up Russia's public finances while keeping the ruble exchange rate low, facilitating Russia's continued trade surplus with key partners such as China and India. Moscow will likely point to the purchases as evidence that Russia has returned to building the reserve asset that helps it avoid sanctions rather than spending it, which could disappoint those who thought that problems with Russia's public finances could push the country to scale back the Ukraine war.
OTHER STORIES WE'RE TRACKING - CURATED CONTENT
ASIA
China's Defense Ties With Cambodia Raise Red Flags for Vietnam
Today, Vietnam is once again concerned about China's growing defense ties with Cambodia. Hanoi fears that China is using Cambodia as a tool to pressure Vietnam on its southern border. The South China Sea is a source of ongoing contention between Vietnam and China. China has consistently challenged Vietnam's attempts to extract resources from within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea.
Source: East Asia Forum
Japan Quietly Playing a Growing Role in Central Asia
When the role of outside powers in Central Asia is considered, Japan is often not among them. Japan has focused on smaller "soft power" projects rather than major geopolitical moves, it generally has been able to avoid conflicts with the two largest players in the region, China and and the Russian Federation.
Source: The Jamestown Foundation
Shadow Enemies Cause Iran Jitters
Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are reaching a critical point. The two neighbors have never been friendly, but pragmatism driven by growing bilateral trade and at times overlapping geopolitical imperatives often aided the search for common ground. This changed after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan decisively defeated Armenia. The Middle East and South Caucasus are becoming much more closely linked. Regional security and energy resources underpin the growing interconnection.
Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
EUROPE
Amidst Europe's Right-Wing Successes, Youth Wing of Far-Right German Party Classified 'Extremist'
On 26 April, Germany's domestic intelligence agency classified the youth wing of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, as well as two other far-right entities, as extremist groups that threaten the country's constitution. The newly classified organizations are part of the so-called "New Right" in Germany, a conservative ideological movement that the German intelligence agency said promotes violent, anti-democratic, and racist ideas. Despite being under surveillance by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, AfD has seen a recent resurgence in the polls as it capitalizes on voters' anger over the country's energy and cost of living crises.
Source: The Soufan Center
Russian Spy Network Smuggles Sensitive EU Tech Despite Sanctions
A Russian spy network has acquired sensitive technology from EU companies to fuel Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine even after a US-led crackdown on the covert smuggling ring. The network — set up to procure goods ranging from microchips to ammunition — has managed to obtain machine tools from Germany and Finland despite US sanctions imposed in March 2022, a Financial Times investigation has found. The procurement cell's continued ability to operate in Europe illustrates the challenges faced by western governments as they attempt to choke off the supply of critical technology for Russia's military-industrial complex.
Source: Financial Times
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
Another ISIS Leader Is Eliminated as Islamic State Struggles to Maintain Core
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Türkiye's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) killed Islamic State's leader, Abu Hussein al-Qurashi, in an operation near Jinderes in northern Aleppo, Syria. Erdogan's announcement of al-Qurashi's death by Erdogan was likely intended to reinforce the Turkish president's image as a strong and capable leader, especially in the lead-up to Türkiye's heavily contested presidential and parliamentary elections. The killing of Islamic State's latest chief was announced as he group struggles to gain momentum in Syria.
Source: The Soufan Center
The 'Slow Coup' Taking Tunisia Back to Autocracy
President Saied is dismantling the institutions that a decade earlier had made the country a beacon for democracy in the Arab world. Economists predict that Tunisia will default on its debt. Saied offers fiery diatribes against corruption but no strategies to deal with the deepening crisis, critics say. The president's constant talk of corruption as Tunisia drifts towards economic disaster has alarmed business leaders, even those who supported his intervention to end the democratic experiment in 2021.
Source: Financial Times
AMERICAS
Colombia, Venezuela Security Partnership Puts Pressure on ELN
Eight months into the Gustavo Petro presidency, Colombia's new security policy has underlined the role of Venezuela in defeating binational criminal groups that operate in both countries. Colombia's Defense Ministry presented its "Security, Defense and Citizen Coexistence Policy" on April 25, where, among other issues, the ministry outlined its intention to tackle security threats on its borders. It did not rule out using "bilateral or multilateral cooperation mechanisms."
Source: Insight Crime
Paraguay: Santiago Peña to Run a Still-Divided Country
Santiago Peña's surprisingly easy victory in Paraguay's presidential elections Sunday ensured another five-year term for South America's longest-governing political party — but he will face numerous challenges including relations with Taiwan, divisions in his ranks and US scrutiny over alleged corruption in the party.
Source: Americas Quarterly
GLOBAL
America's Bad Bet on India
For the past two decades, Washington has made an enormous bet in the Indo-Pacific — that treating India as a key partner will help the United States in its geopolitical rivalry with China. It has also overlooked India's democratic erosion and its unhelpful foreign policy choices. New Delhi won't side With Washington against Beijing.
Source: Foreign Affairs
How Macron Is Blocking EU Strategy on Russia and China
Macron's strategy for Europe is ultimately grounded in a well-established French diplomatic tradition that long predates him: maximizing "France's strength, influence and independence." As Macron instructed the country's ambassadors in September 2022, this is "the primary goal, and sometimes when there is only one goal to follow, that is it." As much as he talks about European strategic autonomy, that idea is ultimately subordinated to France's strategic autonomy. Macron, like de Gaulle, seems to want to be the man in the arena. His energetic and persistent diplomatic outreach — to former US President Donald Trump, former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping — is difficult to explain otherwise.
Source: Foreign Policy
Brazil's Lula Strengthens Relations With China and Forays Into Geopolitics
Brazil's president, Lula da Silva, is complicating the geopolitical ambitions of Brazil's Western partners as he strengthens bilateral relations with China and criticizes Ukraine's war effort. Brazil's economic stature could make it influential among its Global South peers as Lula weighs in on great power dynamics, attempting to jockey for a position of maximum leverage. Lula recently met Chinese President Xi Jinping and signed 15 bilateral agreements, some of them quite revolutionary, including abandoning the US dollar and allowing the two countries to trade in their local currencies.
Source: The Soufan Center
Why Fighters From Post-Soviet World Flock to Ukraine's Banner
People from around the world have joined the fight against Russia in Ukraine, but for those from Chechnya and former Soviet republics Belarus and Georgia, the stakes feel especially high. They say their countries will never enjoy freedom or democracy unless Russia is defeated in Ukraine. And so Ukraine's war is their war.
Source: Christian Science Monitor
Marcos Has Turned the Philippines Towards America – Not Without Risks
The Philippines this month granted the United States rotational access to four more military facilities in the country. This expansion will be in addition to the five existing sites under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed in 2014. Although the agreement does not allow the establishment of permanent military bases, it does permit the United States to build and operate facilities on Philippine bases such as runways, fuel storage, and military housing.
Source: The Interpreter (The Lowy Institute)
Europe's AI Act Nears Finishing Line — Worrying Washington
EU lawmakers are poised to expand the scope of artificial intelligence systems covered under an upcoming regulation. A transatlantic clash still can be avoided. European parliamentarians are considering additions to the initial Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act's draft lists of either prohibited or high-risk applications.
Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
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This Day in U S Military History…….May 6
1935 – The first flight of the Curtiss P-36 Hawk. The Curtiss P-36 Hawk, also known as the Curtiss Hawk Model 75, was an American-designed and built fighter aircraft of the 1930s and 40s. A contemporary of both the Hawker Hurricane and Messerschmitt Bf 109, it was one of the first of a new generation of combat aircraft—a sleek monoplane design making extensive use of metal in its construction and powered by a powerful radial engine. Perhaps best known as the predecessor of the Curtiss P-40 Warhawk, the P-36 saw little combat with the United States Army Air Forces during World War II. It was nevertheless the fighter used most extensively and successfully by the French Armee de l'air during the Battle of France. The P-36 was also ordered by the governments of the Netherlands and Norway, but did not arrive in time to see action over either country, before both were occupied by Nazi Germany. The type was also manufactured under license in China, for the Republic of China Air Force, as well as in British India, for the Royal Air Force (RAF) and Royal Indian Air Force (RIAF). Axis and co-belligerent air forces also made significant use of captured P-36s. Following the fall of France and Norway in 1940, several dozen P-36s were seized by Germany and transferred to Finland; these aircraft saw extensive action with the Ilmavoimat (Air Force) against the Soviet Air Forces. The P-36 was also used by Vichy French air forces in several minor conflicts; in one of these, the Franco-Thai War of 1940–41, P-36s were used by both sides. From mid-1940, some P-36s en route for France and the Netherlands were diverted to Allied air forces in other parts of the world. The Hawks ordered by the Netherlands were diverted to the Dutch East Indies and later saw action against Japanese forces. French orders were taken up by British Commonwealth air forces, and saw combat with both the South African Air Force (SAAF) against Italian forces in East Africa, and with the RAF over Burma. Within the Commonwealth, the type was usually referred to as the Curtiss Mohawk. With around 1,000 aircraft built by Curtiss itself, the P-36 was a major commercial success for the company. It also became the basis not only of the P-40, but two other, unsuccessful prototypes: the YP-37 and the XP-42 .
1937 – The airship Hindenburg, the largest dirigible ever built and the pride of Nazi Germany, bursts into flames upon touching its mooring mast in Lakehurst, New Jersey, killing 36 passengers and crewmembers. Frenchman Henri Giffard constructed the first successful airship in 1852. His hydrogen-filled blimp carried a three-horsepower steam engine that turned a large propeller and flew at a speed of six miles per hour. The rigid airship, often known as the "zeppelin" after the last name of its innovator, Count Ferdinand von Zeppelin, was developed by the Germans in the late 19th century. Unlike French airships, the German ships had a light framework of metal girders that protected a gas-filled interior. However, like Giffard's airship, they were lifted by highly flammable hydrogen gas and vulnerable to explosion. Large enough to carry substantial numbers of passengers, one of the most famous rigid airships was the Graf Zeppelin, a dirigible that traveled around the world in 1929. In the 1930s, the Graf Zeppelin pioneered the first transatlantic air service, leading to the construction of the Hindenburg, a larger passenger airship. On May 3, 1937, the Hindenburg left Frankfurt, Germany, for the first of 10 scheduled journey's across the Atlantic to Lakehurst's Navy Air Base. On its maiden voyage, the Hindenburg, stretching 804 feet from stern to bow, carried 36 passengers and crew of 61. While attempting to moor at Lakehurst, the airship suddenly burst into flames, probably after a spark ignited its hydrogen core. Rapidly falling 200 feet to the ground, the hull of the airship incinerated within seconds. Thirteen passengers, 21 crewmen, and 1 civilian member of the ground crew lost their lives, and most of the survivors suffered substantial injuries. Radio announcer Herb Morrison, who came to Lakehurst to record a routine voice-over for an NBC newsreel, immortalized the Hindenberg disaster in a famous on-the-scene description in which he emotionally declared, "Oh, the humanity!" The recording of Morrison's commentary was immediately flown to New York, where it was aired as part of America's first coast-to-coast radio news broadcast. Lighter-than-air passenger travel rapidly fell out of favor after the Hindenberg disaster, and no rigid airships survived World War II.
1941 – Bob Hope (b. May 29, 1903) began broadcasting his first USO radio show from March Field at Riverside, Ca. The United Service Organizations (USO) began operations this year and provided free coffee, donuts, and entertainment to US military forces. The organization is supported entirely by private citizens and corporations.
1941 – The first flight of the Republic P-47 Thunderbolt. The Republic P-47 Thunderbolt was one of the largest and heaviest fighter aircraft in history to be powered by a single piston engine. It was heavily armed with eight .50-caliber machine guns, four per wing. When fully loaded, the P-47 weighed up to eight tons, and in the fighter-bomber ground-attack roles could carry five-inch rockets or a significant bomb load of 2,500 pounds; it could carry more than half the payload of the B-17 bomber on long-range missions (although the B-17 had a far greater range). The P-47, based on the powerful Pratt & Whitney R-2800 Double Wasp engine—the same engine used by two very successful U.S. Navy fighters, the Grumman F6F Hellcat and Vought F4U Corsair—was to be very effective as a short-to-medium range escort fighter in high-altitude air-to-air combat and, when unleashed as a fighter-bomber, proved especially adept at ground attack in both the World War II European and Pacific Theaters. The P-47 was one of the main United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) fighters of World War II, and served with other Allied air forces, notably those of France, Britain, and Russia. Mexican and Brazilian squadrons fighting alongside the U.S. were equipped with the P-47. The armored cockpit was roomy inside, comfortable for the pilot, and offered good visibility. A modern-day U.S. ground-attack aircraft, the Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II, takes its name from the P-47
1944 – The first flight of the Mitsubishi A7M fighter (designed to replace the Zero) takes place. Technical problems and Allied bombing raids prevent mass production.
1945 – The US 97th Division, part of US 5th Corps of the US 3rd Army, occupies Pilsen in Czechoslovakia. The US 12th Corps advances toward Prague but the army is ordered to halt the advance and allow Soviets to occupy the rest of the country as has been arranged.
1945 – On Luzon, elements of the US 25th Division, part of US 1st Corps, capture the Kembu plateau. On Mindanao, the US 24th and 31st Divisions overrun Japanese positions north of Davao, where the Japanese 35th Army (General Morozumi) is concentrated.
1945 – On Okinawa, the Japanese offensive loses momentum. Japanese forces have sustain losses of at least 5000 killed. Even while it has been going on, American forces have made gains near Machinto airfield and Maeda Ridge.
1969 – A US helicopter crashes 75 miles north of Saigon killing 34 and injuring 35 in what is believed to be the worst helicopter accident of the war. To this date, 2,595 helicopters have been lost.
1972 – The remnants of South Vietnam's 5th Division at An Loc continue to receive daily artillery battering from the communist forces surrounding the city as reinforcements fight their way from the south up Highway 13. The South Vietnamese had been under heavy attack since the North Vietnamese had launched their Nguyen Hue Offensive on March 30. The communists had mounted a massive invasion of South Vietnam with 14 infantry divisions and 26 separate regiments, more than 120,000 troops and approximately 1,200 tanks and other armored vehicles. The main North Vietnamese objectives, in addition to An Loc in the south, were Quang Tri in the north, and Kontum in the Central Highlands. In Binh Long Province, the North Vietnamese forces had crossed into South Vietnam from Cambodia on April 5 to strike first at Loc Ninh. After taking Loc Ninh, the North Vietnamese forces then quickly encircled An Loc, the capital of Binh Long Province, which was only 65 miles from Saigon. The North Vietnamese held An Loc under siege for almost three months while they made repeated attempts to take the city, bombarding it around the clock. The defenders suffered heavy casualties, including 2,300 dead or missing, but with the aid of U.S. advisers and American airpower, they managed to hold out against vastly superior odds until the siege was lifted on June 18. Fighting continued all over South Vietnam into the summer months, but eventually the South Vietnamese forces prevailed against the invaders and they retook Quang Tri in September. With the communist invasion blunted, President Nixon declared that the South Vietnamese victory proved the viability of his Vietnamization program, which he had instituted in 1969 to increase the combat capability of the South Vietnamese armed forces.
1994 – The last HH-3F Pelican helicopter in Coast Guard service was retired. This ended the Coast Guard's "amphibious era," as no aviation asset left in service was capable of making water landings.
Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day
MACLAY, WILLIAM P.
Rank and organization: Private, Company A, 43d Infantry, U.S. Volunteers. Place and date: At Hilongas, Leyte, Philippine Islands, 6 May 1900. Entered service at: Altoona, Pa. Birth: Spruce Creek, Pa. Date of issue: 11 March 1902. Citation: Charged an occupied bastion, saving the life of an officer in a hand-to-hand combat and destroying the enemy.
THORDSEN, WILLIAM GEORGE
Rank and organization: Coxswain, U.S. Navy. Born: 2 April 1879, Fredericstadt, Germany. Accredited to: New York. G.O. No.: 6, 15 August 1900. Citation. For heroism and gallantry under fire of the enemy at Hilongas, Philippine Islands, 6 May 1900.
*HOWE, JAMES D.
Rank and organization: Lance Corporal, U.S. Marine Corps, Company I, 3d Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division. Place and date: Republic of Vietnam, 6 May 1970. Entered service at: Fort Jackson, S.C. Born: 17 December 1948, Six Mile, Pickens, S.C. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving as a rifleman with Company I, during operations against enemy forces. In the early morning hours L/Cpl. Howe and 2 other marines were occupying a defensive position in a sandy beach area fronted by bamboo thickets. Enemy sappers suddenly launched a grenade attack against the position, utilizing the cover of darkness to carry out their assault. Following the initial explosions of the grenades, L/Cpl. Howe and his 2 comrades moved to a more advantageous position in order to return suppressive fire. When an enemy grenade landed in their midst, L/Cpl. Howe immediately shouted a warning and then threw himself upon the deadly missile, thereby protecting the lives of the fellow marines. His heroic and selfless action was in keeping with the finest traditions of the Marine Corps and of the U.S. Naval Service. He valiantly gave his life in the service of his country.
PATTERSON, ROBERT MARTIN
Rank and organization: Sergeant, U.S. Army, Troop B, 2d Squadron. 17th Cavalry. Place and date: Near La Chu, Republic of Vietnam, 6 May 1968. Entered service at: Raleigh, N.C. Born: 16 April 1948, Durham, N.C. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity in action at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty. Sgt. Patterson (then Sp4c.) distinguished himself while serving as a fire team leader of the 3d Platoon, Troop B, during an assault against a North Vietnamese Army battalion which was entrenched in a heavily fortified position. When the leading squad of the 3d Platoon was pinned down by heavy interlocking automatic weapon and rocket propelled grenade fire from 2 enemy bunkers, Sgt. Patterson and the 2 other members of his assault team moved forward under a hail of enemy fire to destroy the bunkers with grenade and machinegun fire. Observing that his comrades were being fired on from a third enemy bunker covered by enemy gunners in l-man spider holes, Sgt. Patterson, with complete disregard for his safety and ignoring the warning of his comrades that he was moving into a bunker complex, assaulted and destroyed the position. Although exposed to intensive small arm and grenade fire from the bunkers and their mutually supporting emplacements. Sgt. Patterson continued his assault upon the bunkers which were impeding the advance of his unit. Sgt. Patterson single-handedly destroyed by rifle and grenade fire 5 enemy bunkers, killed 8 enemy soldiers and captured 7 weapons. His dauntless courage and heroism inspired his platoon to resume the attack and to penetrate the enemy defensive position. Sgt. Patterson's action at the risk of his life has reflected great credit upon himself, his unit, and the U.S. Army.
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AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for May 6, 2021 FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY
6 May
1908: Through 14 May, the Wrights resumed flights at Kitty Hawk, N.C., with reporters as witnesses. This ended all doubts about the Wright's ability to fly. (24)
1912: Three Army planes from College Park flew the first group cross-country flight to Chevy Chase Club, Md. (4) (11)
1914: While observing Mexican positions from a Curtiss AH-3 hydroairplane at Vera Cruz, Lt (JG) Patrick N. L. Bellinger, the pilot, and Lt Richard C. Saufley, the observer, were struck by rifle
fire. This was the first Navy and first American plane to come under hostile fire. (21) (24)
1918: The Navy commissioned NAS Coco Solo to maintain patrols over the seaward approaches to the Panama Canal. (24)
1937: The German dirigible Hindenberg burned while moored at Lakehurst, N.J. Thirty-five people died in the fire. (21)
1941: Company test pilot Lowery Brabham flew the XP-47B Thunderbolt on its first flight in a trip from the Republic plant to Mitchel Field. (12)
1949: At Cleveland, the Sikorsky S-52-1 helicopter set an international record of 122.75 MPH for a 100-kilometer course (see 27 April 1949).
1957: The 363d Tactical Reconnaissance Wing (TRW) at Shaw AFB received TAC's first RF-101 supersonic reconnaissance aircraft. (11)
1959: Launched from Cape Canaveral, the 16th Jupiter missile struck a target area 1,500 miles down range near Antigua Island. Afterwards, the USAF declared the missile operational. (6)
1960: At Edwards AFB, the Minuteman made its first public flight from an underground launch
pad--not a silo. (24)
1962: Operation DOMINIC. The submerged USS Ethan Allen launched a Polaris missile on a flight test from the Pacific. This may have been the first US missile launch with a live nuclear warhead.
1967: SAC flew its 10,000th B-52 mission in SEA. By this time, the B-52s had dropped over 190,000 tons of bombs in combat operations. (1)
1970: COLLIER TROPHY. Neil A. Armstrong and Cols Edwin E. Aldrin and Michael Collins from Apollo XI received the trophy for putting the first man on the moon. (5) (16)
1972: Operation CONSTANT GUARD III: After a North Vietnamese offensive, MAC helped the 49 TFW move 3,195 airmen and 1,600 tons of cargo from Holloman AFB, to Takhli, Thailand, through 15 May. As this offensive continued, MAC's C-5s airlifted 26 tanks, weighing 1.6 million pounds, on 10 flights to Da Nang, where they joined the battle in a matter of hours. (2)
1973: A C-5A returned to Edwards AFB after a 15,000-mile flight that included a low-altitude cargo drop by parachute and an inflight refueling. (3)
1987: At Sembach AB, Germany, the 43d Electronics Combat Squadron, 66th Electronic Combat
Wing, received its first EC-130H Compass Call aircraft. (16)
1994: 1Lt Leslie DeAnn Crosby became the first female pilot in the AFRES to graduate from the
ANG's F-16 fighter training course at Tucson, Ariz. (16)
2006: The last operational C-141 Starlifter (Tail No. 66-0177) from the 445th Airlift Wing (AFRC) at Wright-Patterson AFB landed at Wright Field, Ohio, for donation to the National Museum of the USAF. The landing ended 42 years of Starlifter operations in the active-duty USAF, the Air National Guard, and the Air Force Reserve Command. The C-141, named the "Hanoi Taxi," flew the first Vietnam prisoners of war from Hanoi to freedom on 12 February 1973. (22)
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Catching up on what is going on in the world if you are interested,. Short and concise descriptions
More Stratfor Snippets
Israel: Gaza Flare-Up Causes Tensions Inside Coalition
What Happened: Lawmakers who are members of Israel's Otzma Yehudit party, which belongs to the ruling coalition, boycotted the Knesset after accusing the government of a "feeble" response to Gaza rockets that wounded three people in Israel's south the day before, The Times of Israel reported on May 3.
Why It Matters: Israel's far-right is pressuring the government to carry out bigger military operations against Gazan provocations. If the government meets these demands, it could cause significant damage and casualties in the Gaza Strip, creating a higher risk of war and international condemnation. But if the government continues carrying out more moderate strikes, the far-right's support for the government could weaken over time until it leaves the coalition, which would collapse the government.
Background: Israeli warplanes bombed militant positions in Gaza, killing one, after Palestinians launched some 104 rockets into southern Israel in response to the death of a Palestinian Islamic Jihad member, Khader Adnan, during a hunger strike in an Israeli prison.
UAE: COP28 President Focuses on Reducing Emissions, Not Cutting Fossil Fuels
What Happened: The president of the 2023 U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28), UAE industry minister Sultan al-Jaber, called for the phasing out of "fossil fuel emissions," the Financial Times reported on May 2. Al-Jaber laid out an agenda for the conference, focusing some of his remarks on the development of technologies to reduce emissions (i.e., carbon capture and storage, or CCS) rather than phasing out fossil fuels.
Why It Matters: Al-Jaber's remarks indicate how he and the United Arab Emirates will attempt to steer the discussion ahead of and at COP28. By focusing on emissions, the United Arab Emirates and al-Jaber are trying to raise global support for continuing to invest in oil and gas production and fend off pressure to include more direct language about phasing out fossil fuels. Major oil producers — including Western oil companies — and other large emitters (such as power plant owners) are eyeing CCS technologies as a way to reduce emissions to zero without having to stop burning fossil fuels, though there remains a lot of uncertainty around the impact of CCS on emissions and the cost viability of such plans.
Background: In March, EU member states agreed to push for a phase-out of fossil fuels at COP28, an effort that failed at the last climate summit. ExxonMobil bought shallow water acreage off the coast of Houston, Texas, in multiple U.S. offshore bid rounds, likely to use for its proposed offshore $100 billion CCS project for the U.S. Gulf Coast's refineries.
U.S.: Biden Administration to Allow Foreign Chip Manufacturers in China to Import U.S. Chipmaking Tools
What Happened: The United States has indicated to South Korea's leading chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, that it will grant another one-year waiver for their fabrication plants in China to continue importing U.S. chipmaking tools and technology, the Financial Times reported on May 2.
Why It Matters: The extension of the waiver will enable foreign companies with fabrication plants in China to maintain production by building and selling advanced chips in the country, albeit without partnering with Chinese competitors like the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC). This waiver extension will limit the risk of U.S. export controls immediately disrupting global logic and memory chip supplies.
Background: In October 2022, the United States announced export controls on China that target chipmaking equipment used to manufacture the most advanced chips. Washington introduced the restrictions to prevent Chinese semiconductor manufacturers from building the world's most advanced chips and eroding the West's technological edge in semiconductors.
Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Accuses Kyiv of Putin Assassination Attempt With Drones
What Happened: Around 2:30 a.m. local time, two drones exploded near the Russian flag on top of the Kremlin Senate building in Moscow, Russia, The Moscow Times reported on May 3. The Kremlin described the incident as a Ukrainian terrorist attack and an assassination attempt on Russian President Vladimir Putin, which Kyiv denied.
Why It Matters: The Kremlin admitted that Putin was not in the Senate building at the time of the explosions, so it is extremely doubtful the Kremlin or the perpetrators believed the attack had any chance of hurting the president. The Ukrainian government, Russian partisans or Ukrainian non-state actors could have conducted the attack, but it is possible that the incident was a false flag attack by the Russian government. Regardless of who was behind the attack, the Kremlin could use the incident to justify attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's residences or the government quarter in central Kyiv.
Background: The Kremlin Senate building houses Putin's Kremlin apartment and most of the workspaces used by Putin and his administration. It overlooks Red Square, which will hold Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9. Putin rarely spends the night at the Kremlin and spends most of his time in Moscow at his residence south of the city at his Novo-Ogaryovo estate.
EU: Bloc Unveils 500 Million Euro Package to Boost Ammunition Output
What Happened: EU Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton unveiled a plan to mobilize 500 million euros ($551 million) to ramp up Europe's manufacturing of artillery shells, missiles and gunpowder under the new Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), Bloomberg reported on May 3. The act still needs the approval of the European Parliament and EU member states, with the European Commission saying it will fast track negotiations to finalize a deal as soon as the end of June.
Why It Matters: The fund, which will be used to "increase production capacity" and finance "re-fittings" of old ammunition to make them operational again, is aimed at boosting Europe's ammunition output (part of which will be delivered to Ukraine) by providing defense firms with the financial incentives to increase production. The move comes in response to complaints by Europe's defense industry that getting financing from banks is becoming increasingly difficult amid socially responsible investing trends, which endure in Europe despite the Russia-Ukraine war and governments' plans to increase defense budgets. Brussels said around 50 million euros of the funds will be used to launch a so-called Ramp-Up Fund to improve defense firms' access to financing, compensate them for higher levels of interest rates from banks, or potentially offer preferential-rated loans to those ready to increase production.
Background: The scheme is part of a broader EU effort to increase the supply of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine, which includes a 1 billion euro fund for ammunition sent to Ukraine by member states directly from their own stockpiles and another 1 billion euros for the joint procurement of more ammunition. However, the latter funds have been held up by differences among member states over how they should be spent in Europe.
Sudan: Army, Paramilitary Group Agree to Seven-Day Cease-Fire, But Fighting Likely to Continue
What Happened: Abdel-Fattah Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly agreed "in principle" to a seven-day truce, Bloomberg reported on May 3.
Why It Matters: There is little evidence to suggest that this attempt at a cease-fire will hold, given that fighting has continued despite several previous attempts at cease-fires. Sudan's humanitarian situation is likely to get exponentially worse as fighting persists and shortages of food, water and medicine become more severe.
Background: South Sudanese President Salva Kiir reportedly brokered the cease-fire, which is pending peace talks that will take place as soon as possible. Both the SAF and the RSF are under immense international pressure to cease fighting, but several attempts at cease-fires since the conflict broke out on April 15 have fallen through.
U.S., Mexico: Governments Agree to Tighten Immigration Policies
What Happened: U.S. and Mexican officials on May 2 agreed to implement new immigration policies to deter illegal border crossings into the United States ahead of the scheduled end of the U.S. Title 42 immigration policy on May 11, NBC News reported on May 3. Mexico will continue to accept migrants from Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba and Haiti that the United States expels, and the U.S. parole program for the four countries' citizens will continue and partially expand to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
Why It Matters: The agreement indicates the U.S. Biden administration's intention to extend key components of Title 42, a COVID-19 pandemic-era policy that allows U.S. authorities to deport migrants who illegally cross the border without allowing them to claim asylum. However, in the absence of the public health emergency, it is unclear what legal basis the new regulations will use, which may open the policy up to legal challenges. The agreement also demonstrates that despite disputes between the Biden administration and that of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador over labor disputes and the fentanyl trade, the governments are able to cooperate on key issues such as migration. Meanwhile, the countries' changing immigration policies may create near-term chaos at border crossings in the form of protests and increased attempts to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.
Background: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported a record 252,000 border encounters with migrants in December 2022 amid a broader regional surge in migration amid multiple humanitarian crises and poor economic conditions. In April 2023, CBP's acting commissioner told Congress that the body expected migrant crossings to double to 10,000 crossings daily after Title 42 ends.
China: New Report Highlights Return of Hacking Group Earth Longzhi
What Happened: Earth Longzhi, a subgroup of Chinese state-sponsored hacking group APT41, has reemerged after months of dormancy, according to a May 2 report by Japanese multinational cybersecurity firm Trend Micro. The group's newly observed campaign is employing a variety of new tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) and is targeting victims in the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Fiji, including organizations in the countries' government, healthcare, technology and manufacturing sectors.
Why It Matters: Trend Micro's report highlights the continued evolution of Chinese cyberespionage TTPs and activities, posing intellectual property and proprietary data theft risks to targeted organizations. Earth Longzhi's transition to vulnerable internet-exposed servers aligns with other reports that Chinese threat actors are increasingly seeking to exploit weak fringe devices as attack vectors, heightening the risks posed by these systems. Earth Longzhi will likely continue to refine its TTPs to bolster its cyberespionage operations against a variety of Asia-Pacific targets.
Background: Trend Micro first detailed activity by Earth Longzhi in the fourth quarter of 2022, reporting on two different campaigns by the group that took place from 2020-22. In the first of these two previous campaigns, Earth Longzhi targeted government, infrastructure and health industries in Taiwan and the banking sector in China from 2020-21. In the second campaign, the group targeted high-profile victims in the defense, aviation, insurance and urban development industries in Taiwan, China, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ukraine from 2021-22. More generally, APT41 is one of China's most well-known advanced persistent threats, and over the years it has continuously targeted a wide array of organizations in other countries mainly for cyberespionage purposes.
Iran: Authorities Seize Another Oil Tanker
What Happened: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy seized the Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on May 3. Iranian authorities claim they seized the vessel "on orders of the judiciary" but did not provide further details.
Why It Matters: The May 3 seizure is Iran's second such incident in the past week, representing an escalation that negatively impacts the freedom of navigation and maritime sector stability in the Persian Gulf region. Iran's naval harassment is likely to further deteriorate its ties with the United States and make the resumption of nuclear talks less likely.
Background: On April 27, Iranian naval forces seized the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Advantage Sweet as it was headed for the United States. Iranian authorities contend they seized the Advantage Sweet because it collided with an Iranian ship, but it was likely retaliation for the recent U.S. seizure of a Greek-owned ship carrying Iranian crude.
France: Constitutional Council Blocks Second Referendum Proposal on Pension System
What Happened: France's Constitutional Council rejected a second referendum proposal aimed at capping the country's retirement age at 62 on the basis that it did not meet the necessary legal criteria, Reuters reported on May 3. The proposal was aimed at thwarting the French government's unpopular pension reform, which extends the retirement age from 62 to 64 for most workers.
Why It Matters: Now that the pension reform has been enacted, the Constitutional Council's decision means that the only remaining legal option to prevent the reform from being implemented is to pass a bill aimed at repealing the reform, with such bills expected to be put to a vote by independent opposition lawmakers. This council's decision will also fuel demonstrators' frustration at France's political system, making it highly likely that the next round of protests against the pension reform scheduled for June 6 will once again be violent. The Constitutional Council's blocking of this second referendum proposal will strengthen the view among opponents to the pension reform that the council lacks independence from the executive branch and that the country is experiencing a "democratic deficit." It will also intensify domestic debates about France's institutional framework and lead to growing calls by left-wing lawmakers to adopt a new constitution.
Background: The council already rejected a similar referendum proposal on France's pension reform on April 14. Lawmakers proposed both referendums using France's Referendum d'Initiative Partagee (RIP) — or shared-initiative referendum — which enables a group of 185 parliamentarians to propose a referendum to the Constitutional Council.
Turkey: High Voter Turnout for Expatriates May Bolster Erdogan's Presidential Chances
What Happened: Over 800,000 Turkish citizens abroad have already voted in the May 14 general election, compared with only 400,000 early expatriate votes in the 2018 election, Hurriyet Daily News reported on May 4.
Why It Matters: While it is unclear whether high early voter turnout will mean a higher turnout overall, it is evidence of enthusiasm that could prove helpful for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan if prior voting patterns play out, as Turkish expatriates tend to support Erdogan by a greater percentage than those living in Turkey. Anecdotal reporting has indicated in prior elections that Turkish expatriates support Erdogan in part because they are not intimately familiar with the negative, daily impacts of the economic crises of the last several years. Because polling data suggests that the upcoming presidential election will be a tight race between incumbent President Erdogan and the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the expatriate vote could prove decisive.
Background: Expatriates can vote without an appointment until May 9 and on May 14 at designated "border points" in 73 countries. If the election goes to a second round, expatriate voters will be able to vote from May 20-24. Of Turkey's registered voters (60,697,843 total), 5.3% (3,416,098 expatriates total) live abroad, mostly in Western Europe and especially Germany. In the 2018 election, Erdogan won 59.4% of the votes abroad and 52.4% in Turkey.
India, Russia: Suspension of Rupee Trade Settlement Talks Illustrates Dominance of Petrodollar
What Happened: India and Russia suspended talks to settle bilateral trade in rupees, Reuters reported on May 4. The bilateral talks appear to have broken down over Moscow's unwillingness to hold rupees in foreign exchange reserves, while one official said Moscow was concerned that its trade surplus with India would lead to significant rupee accumulation that would be "not desirable."
Why It Matters: The decision shows limitations on the ability of non-Western countries to use non-Western currencies for trade and some of the challenges of diversifying away from the U.S. dollar specifically for the oil trade, with the exception of some bilateral sales to China involving the yuan. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states, which peg their currencies to Western currencies, would also have reservations about accumulating currencies like the rupee.
Background: The rupee's share of global exports is only about 2%. While some countries trade using banking hubs' currencies, like the United Arab Emirates' dirham, most still trade in U.S. dollars.
France: TotalEnergies Sues Greenpeace Over Emissions Underreporting Allegations
What Happened: French energy company TotalEnergies sued the French branch of environmental group Greenpeace and the climate consulting firm Factor-X over a November 2022 report that claimed TotalEnergies had significantly underestimated its greenhouse gas emissions, TotalEnergies said on May 3. Greenpeace claimed that the lawsuit was an attempt to silence the group ahead of the May 26 TotalEnergies annual general meeting, where one activist shareholder proposal is calling for the company to accelerate emissions cuts by 2030.
Why It Matters: Accusations over misleading emissions claims and estimates are only likely to increase the more that companies make concrete commitments to reducing emissions and report their activity. Additionally, activist groups have every incentive to overestimate companies' emissions — just as some oil and gas companies may try to obfuscate them — which means lawsuits and accusations like this are likely to increase in the coming years.
Background: In its report, Greenpeace France estimated that TotalEnergies' emissions in 2019 were more than 1.6 billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, roughly four times higher than TotalEnergies' estimate of 455 million tons. TotalEnergies has argued that Factor-X and Greenpeace's estimates are "dubious" due to the fact that they do not take into account TotalEnergies' integration, which means they count emissions across the company's value chains several times. TotalEnergies also said Greenpeace's use of the same emissions estimation methodology for all companies involved in fossil fuels would create an emissions total several times higher than the companies' annual global emissions.
Kenya: Opposition Leader Suspends Protests
What Happened: Kenya's opposition party suspended protests on May 3 planned for the following day after reaching an agreement with the government, Al Jazeera reported on May 4.
Why It Matters: The suspension of protests will enable businesses in some parts of Nairobi to resume operations disrupted by clashes between demonstrators and police. But details on the deal struck between the opposition Azimio la Umoja alliance led by Raila Odinga and the ruling Kenya Kwanza alliance led by President William Ruto are unknown, which makes it difficult to ascertain whether the suspension will hold.
Background: Odinga's Azimio alliance is demanding that Ruto address Kenya's cost-of-living crisis, perform an audit of the electoral commission's servers from the 2022 election, ensure "protection of the letter and spirit of fidelity to multiparty democracy," and adhere "to the principle of inclusivity in appointment of civil servants."
Argentina: Government May Fast-Track Brazilian Imports in Exchange for Use of the Real
What Happened: Argentina suggested that it could expedite Brazilian imports if Brazil adopts a new credit system to conduct business in reais as opposed to the dollar as Argentina's Central Bank dollar reserves run low, Reuters reported on May 3. Economists representing the two countries at a meeting the week of May 7 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, will discuss shortening the processing and payment time for Brazilian imports from 180 days to 30 days.
Why It Matters: If Argentina and Brazil implement the proposal — which is not guaranteed due to potential technical difficulties — it would likely allow Argentine traders greater freedom to import Brazilian goods such as cars and iron ore. The deal would benefit Brazilian exporters, who have faced trading risks as Argentina's recently-high inflation rate has impacted the exchange rate for goods over a longer period.
Background: A poor grain harvest due to drought has severely impacted Argentina's foreign currency reserves, which the government is using to support the country's official exchange rate, impacting Argentine companies' ability to pay for imports in U.S. dollars.
India: New Electricity Policy Scraps Some New Coal-Fired Power Capacity
What Happened: A new draft of India's national electricity policy scrapped plans to build new coal-fired power plants beyond the projects already moving forward, which will generate 28.2 gigawatts of power, Reuters reported on May 4. However, the new policy also proposes delaying the retirement of old coal-fired power plants until energy storage for renewable electricity becomes financially viable.
Why It Matters: The changes will decrease global coal-fired power generation in the long run, as India and China account for about 80% of active coal projects. The freeze on new builds could also slowly shift India's energy mix away from coal, although India will still build a number of new coal power plants and continue burning coal at existing plants for decades.
Background: The draft is India's first revision of its national electricity policy since the current one went into effect in 2005.
Germany: Economy Minister Proposes Subsidizing Electricity Costs for Some Industries
What Happened: German Economy Minister Robert Habeck proposed subsidizing up to 80% of the electricity costs for companies in energy-intensive industries such as chemicals, steel, metal and glass, according to a May 5 working paper on industrial electricity prices in Germany. The plan would cost 25-30 billion euros ($27-33 billion).
Why It Matters: If implemented, the plan would improve Germany's industrial competitiveness and reduce some of the concerns that industrial firms have about Germany's high energy price environment relative to other manufacturing regions outside Europe. However, Germany's ruling three-party coalition is divided over the plan, so it will face strong domestic opposition. A German shift toward more industrial subsidies could also expose rifts in the European Union, as Germany's ability to pour billions of euros into subsidies is unmatched by virtually all other EU countries.
Background: Europe's quest to reduce consumption of Russian natural gas is forcing companies to pay higher prices on electricity and natural gas, eroding the relatively cheap energy cost advantage they previously had over Asia. In recent months, a number of European industrial firm executives warned that the Continent's competitiveness had waned, particularly after the United States passed its Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act, which collectively offered billions of dollars for green technologies and semiconductors.
Russia: Wagner Boss Escalates Feud With Military, Claims Withdrawal From Bakhmut in Ukraine
What Happened: The leader of Russia's Wagner military contractor, Evgeny Prigozhin, escalated his feud with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov, releasing a series of videos blaming them for ammunition shortages and the subsequent deaths of Wagner soldiers, AP reported May 5. Prigozhin also claimed that Wagner forces would withdraw from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut beginning May 10, transferring its positions to Russia's defense ministry.
Why It Matters: Prigozhin's comments are in line with his previous efforts to secure resources by framing Wagner's activities as uniquely valuable and heroic. Still, the rhetoric represents a significant escalation in his longstanding feud with Shoigu and Gerasimov that risks increasing skepticism toward Russia's military and political leaders. Russian forces near Bakhmut may withdraw from the city in order to regroup, but the primary reason for this is related to manpower shortages as opposed to ammunition shortages due to heavy losses after months of heavy fighting for the Ukrainian city.
Background: On April 30, Russia's deputy defense minister in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev, was removed from his position without explanation. But on May 4, Wagner announced Mizintsev had become a deputy commander of Wagner forces in Ukraine, making him one of the most senior Russian military officials to join the organization.
China, Canada: Diplomatic Spat Shows 'Guardrails' on Competition Unlikely
What Happened: Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly stated that the ministry was considering the "expulsion of diplomats" over a controversy related to a Chinese intelligence campaign against a Canadian member of parliament, South China Morning Post reported on May 5. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on May 4 reiterated China's opposition to interference "in China's internal affairs" (i.e., human rights), and the Chinese embassy in Ottawa noted "China will play along" if Canada continues to make provocations.
Why It Matters: Incidents like this will continue to plague China's relations with the United States and its closest partners (e.g., Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia) for the foreseeable future, making it extremely difficult for U.S. partners to put limits on strategic competition with China. Chinese influence operations will persist as Beijing's siege mindset deepens, and U.S. partners will likewise expand investigations into these operations, making controversies like Canada's inevitable.
Background: Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei is believed to have helped Chinese intelligence authorities gather information on Canadian member of parliament Michael Chong — who has critiqued Beijing's human rights abuses — and his family.
France: National Assembly Adopts Text Preventing EDF Asset Sale
What Happened: The lower house of France's National Assembly adopted a text to prevent the ''dismantling'' of the French electricity giant EDF, despite opposition from President Emmanuel Macron's government, le Figaro reported May 4. The proposal was pushed by the left and backed by conservative and far-right lawmakers, with 127 votes in favor and 89 against. The text will now go to a vote in the Senate.
Why It Matters: If approved by the Senate, the proposal would significantly complicate any restructuring of EDF following the government's full nationalization of the company. Opposition parties' move to vote together against the Macron administration highlights the French president's current lack of control in the National Assembly after his centrist alliance lost its absolute majority last year, and amid the mass uproar over his controversial decision to ram through his unpopular pension reform in March without holding a vote in the legislature.
Background: Opposition lawmakers added a list of ''missions'' for EDF (including the production, transport and distribution of energy) to prevent the government from resuscitating a controversial restructuring plan that stalled in 2021 amid public criticism. The government's stalled plan would have divided EDF's nuclear and hydropower assets (nationalized) from its renewables, power distribution and retail operations (publicly listed).
Sudan: Biden Signs Executive Order Paving the Way for Sanctions
What Happened: U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order that paves the way for the government to sanction individuals involved in fighting in Sudan, AP reported on May 4.
Why It Matters: Sanctions against Sudanese leadership are unlikely to coerce either side to stop fighting, as immense U.S. and European pressure to end the conflict has failed to produce effective cease-fires. The generals appear more concerned with complete victory than maintaining good relations with the West, especially since both sides have regional foreign backers.
Background: White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the Biden administration had not decided whether it would issue sanctions against Abdel-Fattah Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo, head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
Mali: Interim Military Government Announces Date for Constitutional Referendum
What Happened: The Malian junta announced that it will hold a constitutional referendum — originally scheduled for March but postponed — on June 18, Radio France Internationale reported on May 5. The referendum is one of many steps in the transition back to civilian rule, which is scheduled to conclude in February 2024.
Why It Matters: The junta's announcement enables it to keep up the facade of progressing toward civilian rule, when in fact few members of Malian military leadership likely intend to step down in February 2024. Even if Mali holds elections, the key decision-makers in government are likely to remain within the security establishment — particularly as jihadist insurgencies continue to encroach on Bamako and large swaths of the population will likely be unable to vote due to insecurity.
Background: The amendments to the constitution include the creation of new regions in line with the 2015 Algiers peace agreement, the enhancement of the powers of the president (allowing them to appoint one-third of the members of a newly created senate and preside over the constitutional court), and set up elected regional councils in the 10 regions of Mali (including the two newly created regions in the north).
U.K.: Conservative Party Suffers Heavy Defeat in Local Elections
What Happened: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party suffered a significant defeat in local elections in England on May 4, with about 95% of votes counted as of late May 5, BBC reported the same day. Early results show the ruling Conservatives may have suffered a net loss of at least 1,000 seats, while the opposition Labour Party gained above 500 seats and the Liberal Democrats gained as many as 400.
Why It Matters: While midterm local elections are never a perfect indicator of voters' intentions at the national level due to the role local dynamics play in the polls and given a significantly lower turnout than in national votes, significant losses in local council seats for the Conservatives confirm the difficulties Sunak will face in seeking reelection at the general election expected in 2024. Based on these results, which have no effect on the government's current majority in Parliament, the main opposition Labour Party is on track to win the next national election by a landslide, capitalizing on the political and economic turmoil of 2022 under successive Conservative governments, as well as on the country's general dire economic situation amid high inflation and stagnant economic growth. Labour's largest gains came in areas that voted "leave" in the 2016 Brexit referendum and Conservative in the 2019 general elections, further highlighting a shift in voting intentions in key electoral battlegrounds.
Background: The local elections across more than 230 councils in England were the largest test of voter sentiment in the United Kingdom before the next general election, and they were the first electoral test for Sunak since he became prime minister and Conservative Party leader in October 2022. Sunak inherited a record 30 point lead for Labour in the polls from the two previous Conservative premiers, a gap he has managed to reduce during its first six months in office to a smaller, yet still significant 20 points.
Russia, Ukraine: Occupation Official Orders Evacuation Over Impending Offensive
What Happened: The Russian-installed head of Ukraine's occupied Zaporizhzhia region authorized the evacuation of all children, parents, elderly people, disabled people and hospital patients from 18 settlements near the front line in the region, The Moscow Times reported on May 5. The official later said he possessed information suggesting Ukraine may begin an offensive in the coming days or even hours.
Why It Matters: The evacuation and insistence of it being a temporary measure is reminiscent of Russia's evacuation of civilians from the Kherson region in October 2022 prior to Ukraine's successful recapture of the region the following month, as well as of Russia's evacuations of civilians from the Russian-controlled areas in February 2022 and prior to Russia's invasion. Therefore, the evacuation underscores the impending nature of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and strongly suggests that the Zaporizhzhia region will be the primary target of the counteroffensive. The attack could commence in the coming days and is likely in the coming weeks.
Background: In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on May 4, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Russia is unlikely to be able to mount a significant offensive in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages, regardless of the success of Ukraine's impending counteroffensive.
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