To All,
Good Wednesday morning October 18 2023
A bit of history and some tidbits
Regards
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Today in Naval and Marine Corps History thanks to NHHC
October 18
1812 The sloop-of-war Wasp, commanded by Master Commandant Jacob Jones, captures HMS Frolic. After a severe engagement of 43 minutes, both vessels are dismasted. HMS Poictiers appears shortly thereafter and Wasp has to surrender as it can neither run nor hope to fight such an overwhelming opponent as the 74-gun ship-of-the-line. Wasp serves the British as HMS Peacock until it is lost off the Virginia Capes in 1813.
1867 The sloop-of-war Ossipee and the third-class screw steamer Resaca participate in formal transfer of Alaska from Russia to U.S. authority at Sitka and remain to enforce law and order in the new territory.
1944 USS Bluegill (SS 242) and USS Raton (SS 270) attack a Japanese convoy in the South China Sea. Bluegill sinks the army cargo ships Arabia Maru and Chinsei Maru and freighter Hakushika Maru. Raton sinks the army cargo ships Taikai Maru and Shiranesan Maru.
1977 USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) is commissioned at Norfolk, Va. The Ike, named after the nations 34th president, is the third nuclear-powered and second Nimitz-class aircraft carrier.
2001 – The pilots of Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 251 became the first Marines known to be engaged in combat in Afghanistan, supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. The Marines, piloting Hornets, took off from the deck of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, and flew several bombing missions, including the destruction of a bridge in northern Afghanistan. The Theodore Roosevelt, carrying approximately 195 Marines, was leading one of the four Navy battle groups in the region.
2003 USS Chafee (DDG 90) is commissioned at Newport, R.I. The first U.S. Navy ship named to honor John Hubbard Chafee, the late Senator from Rhode Island, who also served as Secretary of the Navy under President Nixon.
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Today in World History October 18
1648 The "shoemakers of Boston"--the first labor organization in what would become the United States--was authorized by the Massachusetts Bay Colony.
1685 Edict of Nantes lifted by Louis XIV. The edict, signed at Nantes, France, by King Henry IV in 1598, gave the Huguenots religious liberty, civil rights and security. By revoking the Edict of Nantes, Louis XIV abrogated their religious liberties.
1813 The Allies defeat Napoleon Bonaparte at Leipzig.
1867 The Alaska territory is formally transferred to the U.S. from Russian control.
1867 The rules for American football are formulated at meeting in New York among delegates from Columbia, Rutgers, Princeton and Yale universities.
1883 The weather station at the top of Ben Nevis, Scotland, the highest mountain in Britain, is declared open. Weather stations were set up on the tops of mountains all over Europe and the Eastern United States in order to gather information for the new weather forecasts.
1910 M. Baudry is the first to fly a dirigible across the English Channel--from La Motte-Breil to Wormwood Scrubbs.
1912 The First Balkan War breaks out between the members of the Balkan League--Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro--and the Ottoman Empire.
1918 Czechs seize Prague and renounce Hapsburg's rule.
1919 Madrid opens a subway system.
1921 Russian Soviets grant Crimean independence.
1939 President Franklin D. Roosevelt bans war submarines from U.S. ports and waters.
1944 Lt. General Joseph Stilwell is recalled from China by president Franklin Roosevelt.
1950 The First Turkish Brigade arrives in Korea to assist the U.N. forces fighting there.
1967 A Russian unmanned spacecraft makes the first landing on the surface of Venus.
1968 US athletes Tommi Smith and John Carlos suspended by US Olympic Committee for giving "black power" salute while receiving their medals at the Olympic Games in Mexico City.
2003 Bolivian president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada resigns in the wake of protests centered around Bolivia's natural gas resources.
2007 Suicide attack on a motorcade in Karachi, Pakistan, kills at least 139 and wounds 450; the subject of the attack, Pakistan's former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, is not harmed.
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ROLLING THUNDER REMEMBERED Thanks to the Bear … Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
Skip… For The List for Wednesday, 18 October 2023… Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…
From the archives of rollingthunderremembered.com for 18 October 1968… Remembering Captain Edward Allen Brudno, USAF, (RIP), POW, NVN (Oct 65-Mar 73)…with a Tip-of-the-Hat to Orson Swindle, Marine, who gives a damn…
Thanks to Micro
From Vietnam Air Losses site for Wedesday October 18
October 18: https://www.vietnamairlosses.com/loss.php?id=301
This following work accounts for every fixed wing loss of the Vietnam War and you can use it to read more about the losses in The Bear's Daily account. Even better it allows you to add your updated information to the work to update for history…skip Vietnam Air Losses Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at: https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.
This is a list of all Helicopter Pilots Who Died in the Vietnam War . Listed by last name and has other info https://www.vhpa.org/KIA/KIAINDEX.HTM
MOAA - Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Servicemembers Killed in the Vietnam War
The site works, find anyone you knew in "search" feature.
https://www.vvmf.org/Wall-of-Faces/ )
Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Service members Killed in the Vietnam War
By: Kipp Hanley
AUGUST 15, 2022
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This is the other part of the B-52 story from yesterday.
Thanks to ED From the archives
As Paul said . It is a shame that this Gen. Sullivan is not THE acknowledged hero of the Viet Nam War
Subject: FW: Linebacker II and Brigadier General Glen R. Sullivan (9)
Whether you spent 18 hours watching Ken Burns Vietnam documentary or as many vets did, just skipped it, I think you owe it to yourself to spend 30 minutes or so watching this video on Linebacker II and the career ending courage of Brigadier General Glenn R. Sullivan who jumped his chain of command after the first three nights of disastrous same tactics over and over for the B-52's and changed the way the rest of LB II was conducted. Real leadership
As an add - Recognizing the magnitude of events and the bravery of the BUFF crews on missions far more dangerous than any they had previously flown, to perceive LB II only from the perspective of B-52 strikes is to miss significant pieces of the operation. Often left without discussion are the night low level missions to Haiphong by the A-6 Intruder squadrons: VA-115 Midway, VA-196 Enterprise, VA-35 America, VA-145 Ranger and VA-75 Saratoga.
Christmas '72 Stories: (2) Night time in the Red River Valley (http://rememberedsky.com/?p=612)
'Those of us who came home will never forget those who could not'
Merry Christmas to all 45 years later
Boris
From: Ray Sullivan/Barry Dycus [mailto:linebackervideo@yahoo.com]
Sent: Monday, December 18, 2017 7:34 AM
To: Grayjr
Subject: Linebacker II
December 18, 1972.... 45 years ago today began one of the most important pieces of the puzzle of the Vietnam conflict. It was the "solution", the final piece to getting the POWs returned and resolving our involvement In Vietnam. Yet, these 11 days are often overlooked, mischaracterized or eliminated from the historical perspective.
We toast ALL of those involved in those 11 days in whatever capacity, whatever your task, whatever your branch of service. You did an amazing job and proved what could be done if the will was present. We especially give thanks and remembrance to those who did not return, for it is through them that we are allowed to live the lives we do today.
Pay a visit today to www.linebacker2.com and especially the "Day by Day" page to remember the reality of those 11 days. On the "Scenes" page is some video, part of which is edited and titled "Sully: A General's Decision" directed by Barry Dycus "Sully: A General's Decision"
"Sully: A General's Decision"
An original film about operation Linebacker II that brought an end to America's involvement in the Vietnam war. ...
if you have about 35 minutes, I think you will find it interesting.
I was lucky enough to be invited to speak at the Utapao Alumni Reunion in Dayton, OH this year! What a thrill it was for me to meet all these folks who were at UT at some point and many of them during Linebacker II. My presentation included a piece on Bud Day (the POWs were a primary reason for the effort) and also "Sully: A General's Decision". I was well received and look forward to being with that group again. It was a great experience. I'm occasionally asked to speak to groups and do so willingly. It is an untold story that keeps unfolding all the time. There is rarely a week goes by that I am not contacted by someone about Linebacker II. My friend, Karl Eschmann, who wrote the original book about Linebacker II "Linebacker the Untold Story..." also has a presentation he does about Linebacker I and II. Karl is, I think, the preeminent authority on both I and II and includes all aircraft in his presentation, not just the B-52.
The story lives and changes as more is revealed all this time later. But the important part is not to forget.
As days go by and times change I will keep this website up as a tribute to those 11 days. Somewhere down the line, I may ask for a very small donation to keep it active. This is not an expensive site, if anyone has an idea about how to create a little funding down the line please let me know.
We wish you all the best. Thank you for all your support whether you were involved in Linebacker II or not.
Have a wonderful Holiday Season.
We wish you well.... ray and barry
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Thanks to Interesting Facts
The International Space Station is the most expensive item humans have ever created.
The most expensive movie ever made is Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, which cost a whopping $410 million. That's a pretty penny to be sure, but it's less than half a percent of the most expensive human-made object in history: the International Space Station, whose price tag comes in at $100 billion. Launched in 1998 after more than a decade of careful (and often difficult) planning, the ISS is a collaboration between five space agencies: NASA (United States), Roscosmos (Russia), JAXA (Japan), ESA (Europe), and CSA (Canada). It has been continuously occupied since 2000, with a full-time international crew conducting microgravity experiments and other research.
For all that, the ISS almost didn't exist in the first place. "There was never really a strong push to abandon it but there were threats," according to Valerie Neal of the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C. "It was very nearly killed by a single vote at one of the committees of the U.S. Congress." Getting five space agencies representing the interests of 15 countries to work together was no easy feat, but few would argue that the results — including insights on disease treatments and drug delivery systems, the development of new water purification systems, and a better understanding of how bodies work in space — haven't justified the financial investment.
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From the archives
Thanks to Clint
Subject: This is not the 10 commandments.....
Dedicated to those who really must watch their diets. I think you will way Amen.
And God sighed.... This is NOT the 10 commandments
I think this is hilarious! I NEVER HEARD CREATION EXPLAINED THIS WAY
1. In the beginning, God created the Heavens and the Earth and populated the Earth with broccoli, cauliflower and spinach, green and yellow and red vegetables of all kinds, so Man and Woman would live long and healthy lives.
2. Then using God's great gifts, Satan created Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream and Krispy Creme Donuts. And Satan said, "You want chocolate with that?" And Man said, "Yes!" and Woman said, "and as long as you're at it, add some sprinkles." And they gained 10 pounds. And Satan smiled.
3. And God created the healthful yogurt that Woman might keep the figure that Man found so fair. And Satan brought forth white flour from the wheat, and sugar from the cane and combined them. And Woman went from size 6 to size 14.
4. So God said, "Try my fresh green salad." And Satan presented Thousand-Island Dressing, buttery croutons and garlic toast on the side . And Man and Woman unfastened their belts following the repast.
5. God then said, "I have sent you heart healthy vegetables and olive oil in which to cook them. And Satan brought forth deep fried fish and chicken-fried steak so big it needed its own platter. And Man gained more weight and his cholesterol went through the roof.
6. God then created a light, fluffy white cake, named it "Angel Food Cake" and said, "It is good." Satan then created chocolate cake and named it "Devil's Food."
7 . G od then brought forth running shoes so that his children might lose those extra pounds. And Satan gave cable TV with a remote control so Man would not have to toil changing the channels. And Man and Woman laughed and cried before the flickering blue light and gained pounds.
8 . Then God brought forth the potato, naturally low in fat and brimming with nutrition. And Satan peeled off the healthful skin and sliced the starchy center into chips and deep-fried them. And Man gained pounds .
9 . God then gave lean beef so that Man might consume fewer calories and still satisfy his appetite. And Satan created McDonald's and its 99-cent double cheeseburger. Then said, "You want fries with that?" And Man replied, "Yes! And super-size them!" And Satan said, "It is good." And Man went into cardiac arrest.
10 . God sighed and created quadruple bypass surgery.
. Then Satan created the Health Care System. Amen.
If you don't send this to five old friends right away there will be five fewer people laughing in the world
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Thanks to Brett
To Win a War, Fight One
To Win a War, Fight One - Daniel Greenfield
For Israel, winning this war means destroying Hamas, its leaders, its terrorists and its supporters by any means necessary, and securing the territory they operated from so that it cannot be used to stage more attacks. Pictured: IDF soldiers prepare to remove the bodies of four Israeli civilians who were murdered Saturday by Hamas terrorists in Kfar Aza, Israel, on October 10, 2023. (Photo by Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
As highly civilized people, we've lost touch with some basic concepts. Like war.
We complain that we never win wars anymore, but that's because we don't fight them. Instead, we have limited interventions against insurgents. We try to stabilize failed states. Sometimes we go in, take out a few terrorists, and then go back home. Veterans, whose wounds are very real, sit around wondering what it was all for. So do the families of the men who died fighting in a war that was never a war.
To win a war, you have to fight one.
If your enemy is fighting a war and you're fighting something less than a war, the enemy will win.
Police actions, nation-building exercises, and the like have vague and poorly defined objectives, while wars have very clear ones.
Wars are either won or lost. That's why modern governments rarely like fighting them.... Once you declare a war, you know you have to win.
We fight things that are not wars to 'stabilize' regions. Wars are not fought for stability, but destruction. To win a war, destroy the enemy. That's what the United States and its allies did in WWII, raining mass death and destruction on Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in ways that still make modern liberals cringe.
"The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them," said Arthur Harris, the Royal Air Force chief of Bomber Command, in 1940.
"The harder we push, the more Germans we kill. The more Germans we kill, the fewer of our men will be killed. Pushing harder means fewer casualties. I want you all to remember that," General George Patton told the Third Army.
Franklin D. Roosevelt's obsession with taking the war to Japan led to the Doolittle Raid. One of the bombs from that raid hit a school. "It is quite impossible to bomb a military objective that has civilian residences near it without danger of harming the civilian residences as well. That is a hazard of war," Doolittle had warned.
That is what war is. It's why wars should not be fought lightly. But when you fight them, fight to win.
A just war is based on a fundamental moral clarity about your enemies, not your tactics. War crimes are a meaningless term except when applied to violations of an agreement between the two combatants or civilians that are not a party to the conflict. That is not the case in Gaza. And is rarely the case when fighting Islamic terrorists.
The United States met the Japanese torture, execution, abuse, medical experiments and cannibalism of our troops with increased determination to win at any cost. This was the cost for Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These were not war crimes, this was how a regime of monsters that committed unspeakable atrocities was finally forced to surrender.
That is what fighting to win means.
Winning against Hamas does not mean dropping a few bombs on buildings, staging a limited incursion, taking out a few Hamas leaders and then letting Turkey and Egypt negotiate a truce. That's not a war.
Winning means destroying Hamas, its leaders, its terrorists and its supporters by any means necessary, and securing the territory they operated from so that it cannot be used to stage similar attacks.
Can Israel fight and win such a war? Yes, it can. Will it? That's the question.
Israel, like America, has tried not fighting wars. That is what led to the horrors of the High Holy Day attacks. It may want to fight and win a war before it's too late.
Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center. This article previously appeared at the Center's Front Page Magazine
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From the archives…one of the better cruise videos
Black Knight WESTPAC Cruise 2021 .
thanks to Doctor Rich
Thanks to Felix ...
Grab a beer … full screen … volume UP .. and spend a few days of flying and carrier life w. VFA 154 on CVN-71 Theodore Roosevelt - the "Black Knights"
Better yet … if you use a Mac then AirPlay the video to your AppleTV and big screen TV!!
FLY NAVY (AND MARINES FOR FELIX!!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO8QSTmdwCc
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This Day in U S Military History
1775 – The Burning of Falmouth (now Portland, Maine) prompts the Continental Congress to establish the Continental Navy. The Burning of Falmouth was an attack by a fleet of Royal Navy vessels on the town of Falmouth, Massachusetts (site of the modern city of Portland, Maine, and not to be confused with the modern towns of Falmouth, Massachusetts or Falmouth, Maine). The fleet was commanded by Captain Henry Mowat. The attack began with a naval bombardment which included incendiary shot, followed by a landing party meant to complete the town's destruction. The attack was the only major event in what was supposed to be a campaign of retaliation against ports that supported Patriot activities in the early stages of the American Revolutionary War. Among the colonies, news of the attack led to rejection of British authority and the establishment of independent governments. It also led the Second Continental Congress to contest British Naval dominance by forming a Continental Navy. Both Mowat and his superior, Vice-Admiral Samuel Graves, who had ordered Mowat's expedition, suffered professionally as a consequence of the act.
1776 – At the Battle of Pelham Col. John Glover and the Marblehead regiment collided with British Forces in the Bronx. Sir William Howe, Commander-in-Chief of the British army, landed 4,000 English and Hessian troops near the stables on Pelham Parkway in an action which became the first permanent invasion of the American mainland in the American Revolution. Howe's objective was to outflank the American army by marching west across today's Bronx along the Boston Post Road. This would also cut off Washington's vital supply route from New England and enable the British to surround Washington and quickly end the rebellion. However, 600 seamen from the Boston area, led by Colonel John Glover, and fighting from behind Pelham Manor's stone walls put an end to Howe's plan and saved Washington's army. The main significance of the Battle of Pelham lay in the fact that it bought time for Washington to remove the American army from an extremely perilous position and to retreat to White Plains. It is for this reason that the Battle of Pelham has been called the battle that saved the American Revolution.
1812 – U.S. sloop of war Wasp captures HM brig Frolic. Folic had been separated from a convoy by a storm. While repairing damage, the Wasp came into view and was at first taken for a part of the convoy. On October 18th the "Wasp" moved toward the British ship. The "Frolic" hoisted Spanish colors, this keep the strange ship from pursuing the convoy. At 11:30 a.m. the two ships were sailing no more than 60 yards apart. The "Wasp" fired her port guns, and the "Frolic" fired her starboard guns. The British ship fired rapidly, delivering three broadsides to the American's two. Both crews cheered wildly as the battle became heated. The "Wasp" was landing more shot than the British ship. The ocean was very rough, the crew of the "Frolic" fired their cannon when they were on the crest of the waves. The Americans fired their guns on the lower part of the waves. But in spite of the weather both ships fire was well directed. At 11:36 a.m. the "Wasp's" maintop-mast was shot away and fell with it's yard. At 11:46 a.m. her mizzentop -gallant mast came down and by 11:52 every brace and most of her rigging had been shot away. The British ship however, had been severely damaged in her hull and lower masts. The "Wasp" gradually moved ahead and raked the "Frolic" with a devastating effect. The American ship fired again, this caused many casualties on the "Frolic". The ships came together, and after one failed attempt because of rough seas the Americans boarded the British ship. Not one Englishman was there to stop the crew of the "Wasp" from boarding. The man at the wheel was dazed but still at his post. Captain Whinyates and Lieutenant Wintle were wounded so severely that they could not stand without support. The crew of the "Frolic" could not fight any longer and Lieutenant Biddle lowered the flag at 12:15 just 43 minutes after the battle had started. The American ship had been damaged severely in her rigging but only two or three shots struck her hull. The American's had 5 killed and 5 wounded. The British had 30 killed and 60 wounded. The American ship "Wasp" had a crew of 135 and carried 9 guns. The British ship "Frolic" had a crew of 110 and carried 10 guns.
Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day
THOMPSON, MAX
Rank and organization: Sergeant, U.S. Army, Company K, 18th Infantry, 1st Infantry Division. Place and date: Near Haaren, Germany, 18 October 1944. Entered service at: Prescott, Ariz. Birth: Bethel, N.C. G.O. No.: 47, 18 June 1945. Citation: On 18 October 1944, Company K, 18th Infantry, occupying a position on a hill near Haaren, Germany, was attacked by an enemy infantry battalion supported by tanks. The assault was preceded by an artillery concentration, lasting an hour, which inflicted heavy casualties on the company. While engaged in moving wounded men to cover, Sgt. Thompson observed that the enemy had overrun the positions of the 3d Platoon. He immediately attempted to stem the enemy's advance single-handedly. He manned an abandoned machinegun and fired on the enemy until a direct hit from a hostile tank destroyed the gun. Shaken and dazed, Sgt. Thompson picked up an automatic rifle and although alone against the enemy force which was pouring into the gap in our lines, he fired burst after burst, halting the leading elements of the attack and dispersing those following. Throwing aside his automatic rifle, which had jammed, he took up a rocket gun, fired on a light tank, setting it on fire. By evening the enemy had been driven from the greater part of the captured position but still held 3 pillboxes. Sgt. Thompson's squad was assigned the task of dislodging the enemy from these emplacements. Darkness having fallen and finding that fire of his squad was ineffective from a distance, Sgt. Thompson crawled forward alone to within 20 yards of 1 of the pillboxes and fired grenades into it. The Germans holding the emplacement concentrated their fire upon him. Though wounded, he held his position fearlessly, continued his grenade fire, and finally forced the enemy to abandon the blockhouse. Sgt. Thompson's courageous leadership inspired his men and materially contributed to the clearing of the enemy from his last remaining hold on this important hill position.
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AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for October 18, FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY
18 October
1911: Capt George W. McKay, Michigan National Guard, was the first National Guardsman to qualify as a pilot. He received FAI pilot certificate number 67. (5) (21)
1918: Maj Charles Biddle, the 13th Pursuit Squadron's Commander, downed his eighth German fighter in a fierce dogfight over Verdun. (4)
1922: Brig Gen William "Billy" Mitchell used Lt Russell L. Maughan's Curtiss R-6 racing biplane, powered by a D-12 Curtiss Conqueror engine, to set a world speed record of 222.97 MPH over a one-kilometer course near Mount Clemens. (9)
1950: KOREAN WAR. An RB-29 crew spotted more than 75 fighters at Antung Airfield, China, just across the Yalu River from N. Korea. That intelligence suggested that Communist China might intervene in the war. (28)
1961: NASA fired a Scout rocket to an altitude of 4,261 miles in a study of the ionosphere. (24) The USAF announced that its H-43B Huskie rescue helicopter had ascended to 32,840 feet to set a world altitude record for light (Class E-1d) helicopters. (24)
1962: NASA launched Ranger V, a lunar probe, from Cape Canaveral aboard an Atlas-Agena B booster. A failure of the spacecraft's power system, however, made the planned television transmission of moon pictures impossible. The probe vehicle passed within 450 miles of the moon and entered a solar orbit. (24) CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS. The Air Force Reserves mobilized eight troop carrier wings and six aerial port squadrons for the Cuban Missile Crisis. (21)
1965: The 107 TFG, New York ANG, became the first tactical ANG unit to deploy to the Pacific for a joint-service exercise in peacetime. (16) (26)
1967: OSO IV, the 3,000th man-made sent into space, returned data on solar effects on communications.
1977: A Program Management Directive redesignated the F-15A and F-15B as the F-15C and F-15D, respectively. (30)
1984: First B-1B flight completed at Palmdale. (12) Through 20 October, the Air Force Rescue Coordination Center arranged search and rescue missions for 47 people during heavy snows, high winds, and low temperatures in Colorado and New Mexico. (16) (26)
1985: First flight of an F-111 aircraft with the Mission Adaptive Wing took place at Edwards AFB. The wing had no flaps, slats, ailerons, or spoilers, but used internal hydraulic actuators to change its camber in flight. The wing also had a flexible composite covering to maintain a smooth surface. According to the Boeing Military Airplane Company, the wing produced a 25 to 30 percent increase in range and maneuverability to give the F-111 tighter sustained maneuvers for evasive action and survivability, increased fatigue life, better handling, and a more stable weapons platform.
1995: Lockheed rolled out its first C-130J (Tail No. 5408).
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What is going on in the world
Thanks to Brett
Stratfor snippets - China/U.S. Ecuador, Mozambique, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Georgia, Egypt, Israel/Lebanon, Japan/Russia, Afghanistan, Egypt, New Zealand, Turkey, China, U.S./Israel, U.S./Marshall Islands
China, U.S.: Washington to Announce New Export Controls on AI Chip Exports to China
What Happened: The United States will place new rules on exports of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China the week of Oct. 16, though Washington could still push back this timetable, Reuters reported on Oct. 16.
Why It Matters: The new restrictions are designed to close loopholes that Chinese and Western firms have used to send advanced semiconductors and other technology to China. The new restrictions will also supposedly be more effective at maintaining curbs on AI chip exports as the technology evolves.
Background: To circumvent the current U.S. restrictions, companies introduced new AI chips with specifications that were slightly below the threshold of triggering export controls but are still effective at training AI models when used in mass. The United States announced its previous round of restrictions in October 2022.
Ecuador: Political and Time Constraints Will Limit the Ambitions of President-Elect Noboa
What Happened: With nearly all votes counted, Ecuador's center-right presidential candidate Daniel Noboa, a comparative political outsider, defeated the center-left candidate Luisa Gonzalez, an ally of former (and exiled) President Rafael Correa, by 52%-48% in the Oct. 15 runoff election, Reuters reported the next day. Noboa will take office in late November and will rule only until May 2025, the end of current President Guillermo Lasso's term.
Why It Matters: With little support in the legislature and a lack of influential political allies, Noboa and his small National Democratic Action Alliance coalition will likely struggle to form a government and subsequently keep it together. Combined with Noboa's short term, these political struggles will likely keep him from making significant progress on his tough-on-crime and business-friendly campaign promises.
Background: Ecuador held the first round of the election on Aug. 20 after Lasso used a controversial constitutional mechanism to dissolve the National Assembly to avoid an impending vote to impeach him.
Mozambique: Frelimo Claims Landslide Victory in Local Elections, Opposition Alleges Fraud
What Happened: Mozambique's ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) party claimed that it had won local elections in every municipality except Beira, which some Frelimo elites allegedly decided at an emergency meeting would be "given" to the opposition Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), Zitamar News reported Oct. 15. While Mozambique's largest opposition party, Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), appeared to have large leads over Frelimo in the capital, Maputo, and other large cities in the country as vote counting was ongoing, the official results announced Oct. 14 and 15 declared a resounding Frelimo victory.
Why It Matters: Frelimo's "victory" likely foreshadows the 2024 general elections, which will likely be marred with violence and electoral interference, as well as the ruling party maintaining its political dominance. Frelimo's brazenness during elections in the last several years likely portends widespread electoral fraud. President Filipe Nyusi has given no indication that he intends to seek an unconstitutional third term (which would very likely incite widespread opposition-led resistance), but even so, the party is expected to maintain control of the executive through a candidate of the party leadership's choosing — potentially Frelimo's campaign manager, Celso Correia. While the growing groundswell of popular support behind Renamo and other opposition parties appears unlikely to prevent Frelimo's 2024 victory, the independence era party will likely increasingly struggle to quell popular dissent against corruption, failed economic policies and fraudulent elections ahead of the next round of elections in 2029.
Background: Renamo went from governing seven municipalities before the Oct. 11 election to zero. While election day was mostly peaceful, violence erupted in several locations across the country on Oct.12. Police clashed with opposition party members and supporters in Nampula province in the north, who were celebrating what looked like a Renamo victory. Violent clashes were also reported in Cuamba, Moatize and Vilanculos municipalities.
Nigeria: Government to Seek $1.5 Billion World Bank Loan
What Happened: The Nigerian government is seeking a $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank to assist with budget financing, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 16.
Why It Matters: The loan will help fill Nigeria's growing fiscal deficit — in part driven by insufficient oil revenues and uneven tax collection — as the Tinubu administration seeks to tamp down spending and carry out politically painful reforms. Nigeria does not yet appear to be near an external debt crisis, but ongoing currency reform, the May removal of the fuel subsidy and additional budget assistance will still likely wear on Tinubu's political popularity. These measures will likely improve Nigeria's economic standing in the medium to long term if the Tinubu administration is able to follow through and keep the measures in place, despite the political costs.
Background: Since 2015, Nigeria's debt has increased almost eight times to over $110 billion, with debt servicing obligations taking up 96% of government revenue in 2022.
Zimbabwe: Worker Migration Numbers Rise as Economy Struggles
What Happened: Census data from South Africa shows that 1.01 million Zimbabweans lived in South Africa in 2022, up from 672,308 in 2011 at an average annual increase of almost 31,000, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 14.
Why It Matters: Despite promises to "right the ship" and engage with Western creditors to repay long-past debts, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa appears unlikely to sacrifice deep corruption, cronyism and self-enrichment in order to carry out the reforms necessary to access foreign lines of credit or restructure Zimbabwe's $18 billion of debt. Therefore, Zimbabwe's economic disrepair will continue, as will the mass exodus of Zimbabwean workers. Their migration will continue to harm Zimbabwe's long-term human capital development while triggering xenophobic and nationalist disputes in neighboring South Africa.
Background: In South Africa, activist groups like Operation Dudula and opposition parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters openly blame domestic unemployment rates on Zimbabwean migrants, whom they accuse of taking local jobs.
Georgia: Constitutional Court Says President Violated Constitution
What Happened: The Constitutional Court of Georgia ruled that President Salome Zurabishvili violated the constitution by visiting Europe without the government's approval, Civil Georgia reported on Oct. 16. The leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party said Parliament will vote on Zurabishvili's impeachment before Oct. 21.
Why It Matters: Georgian Dream only has 84 seats in Parliament and is unlikely to find the opposition votes it needs in order to meet the 100-vote threshold to impeach the president. Instead, Georgian Dream will likely use the ruling and impeachment proceedings to tarnish Zurabishvili's reputation, limit her travel and turn her into an effective lame duck ahead of the 2024 elections. The impeachment proceedings will further polarize the country but are unlikely to electorally benefit Georgian Dream in the fall 2024 elections.
Background: On Sept. 1, Georgia's ruling party said it would move to impeach Zurabishvili after a series of foreign visits, which the government argued exceeded the president's authority because the prime minister is responsible for the country's foreign policy.
Egypt: Opposition Leader Withdraws Ahead of December Presidential Election
What Happened: Egypt's leading opposition presidential candidate, Ahmed Altantawy, announced that he will not run in the December election against President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Reuters reported on Oct. 13.
Why It Matters: Altantawy's absence from the ballot will lead to a landslide victory for al-Sisi in the first round of the election, even if al-Sisi is forced to make unpopular decisions on issues like the humanitarian crisis along the Egypt-Gaza border before December. After his victory, al-Sisi will be able to make politically controversial decisions on the border issue and the International Monetary Fund's demands for currency devaluation even more freely.
Background: In order to be added to the ballot for the election, Altantawy needed to collect endorsements from 25,000 members of the public across 15 governorates or from 20 sitting members of parliament by Oct. 14. He was unable to meet the required number of endorsements amid accusations of electoral intimidation and interference by the al-Sisi administration.
Israel, Lebanon: Border Communities to Evacuate in Advance of Potential Northern Front Opening
What Happened: Israel announced that it will evacuate 28 communities along its border with Lebanon due to continued intermittent rocket attacks from the Lebanese militant and political group Hezbollah, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 16. The evacuation will create a two-kilometer (1.2-mile) buffer zone along Israel's northern border.
Why It Matters: The evacuation is part of Israel's efforts to minimize potential civilian casualties in preparation for a potential second war front, and Israel will increase the number of troops and defense systems in the buffer zone amid Hezbollah's continued warnings of escalation. However, Israel will try to limit cross-border fire to avoid expanding the conflict.
Background: Rocket attacks on Oct. 15 killed one Israeli civilian and one member of the Israel Defense Forces. Hezbollah, as well as other Palestinian militant groups in Lebanon, have fired rockets and missiles across Israel's northern border since shortly after the initial Hamas attack on Oct. 7.
Japan, Russia: Moscow's Fish Ban Highlights Deteriorating Relations in Northern Pacific
What Happened: Russia's federal phytosanitary authority announced that it would ban seafood imports from Japan as a "precautionary measure" after Japan began releasing treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean in late August, The Japan Times reported on Oct. 16.
Why It Matters: The ban is not impactful economically, but it is indicative of the broader strategic bifurcation of Asia as Japan aligns trade policy with Washington and Russia's global isolation brings it closer to Beijing. This trend highlights the risks of Russia supporting China in a Korean Peninsula or Taiwan conflict, both of which would be deeply detrimental to Japan's national security and economic stability. Economic impacts could arise if Russia reduces natural gas exports to Japan, but this would harm Russia's economy and thus remains unlikely.
Background: Russia's move comes despite Tokyo's repeated efforts to prove that the treated wastewater is safe for food and wildlife. China announced a seafood import ban on Japan immediately following the release of wastewater in late August.
Afghanistan: Taliban to Join China's Belt and Road Forum
What Happened: An Afghan Taliban spokesperson confirmed the group's acting minister for commerce and industry would attend China's Oct. 17-18 Belt and Road Forum, Reuters reported on Oct. 14.
Why It Matters: The Afghan Taliban's planned participation in the forum demonstrates the group's continuing, strong ties with China, and it may help normalize the Taliban's participation in at least some higher-profile multilateral forums. The group's participation may also bring about additional agreements for investment or infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, although any such projects would also face security, technical and policy-related implementation challenges.
Background: While the Afghan Taliban have attended various regional meetings in recent years, the Belt and Road Forum would be among the highest-profile multilateral forums attended by the group since its takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021. China remains the most diplomatically active country with the Afghan Taliban, and in May, China agreed alongside the Taliban and Pakistan to extend the Belt and Road Initiative to Afghanistan. Chinese companies have also pursued various investment projects in the country including in mining and energy, though security concerns have sporadically disrupted these efforts.
Egypt: Rafah Border Crossing Remains Inoperable, Despite Anticipated Reopening
What Happened: The Egypt-Gaza Rafah border crossing was scheduled to reopen on the morning of Oct. 16 to facilitate the distribution of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of foreign passport holders, but it remains inoperable amid additional airstrikes, Reuters reported on Oct. 16.
Why It Matters: Egypt is under international and domestic pressure to respond to the ongoing humanitarian crisis at its border with Gaza and to coordinate control of the border with Israel. Cairo will likely continue to emphasize humanitarian shipments into Gaza in order to avoid a mass migration of Palestinians into Egypt, though Egyptian officials might allow some Palestinians to travel and seek medical aid across the border once the crossing reopens.
Background: After Israel issued a "total blockade" of Gaza on Oct. 9, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza became the sole transit point into and out of the strip. However, the Rafah crossing sustained damage from Israeli airstrikes on the same day, leading it to close.
New Zealand: The Center-Right Take Center Stage in the Post-Ardern Era
What Happened: Christopher Luxon of New Zealand's center-right National Party appears to be New Zealand's next prime minister, leading a slim parliamentary majority of 61 out of 121 seats thanks to a partnership with the libertarian-right ACT Party, Reuters reported on Oct. 15. However, official results will not come in until Nov. 3, as 20% of the vote must still be counted.
Why It Matters: The final results may force National and ACT to rely on a third coalition partner, the nationalist and populist New Zealand First party, for a parliamentary majority, which could make legislative votes slow and fraught with bargaining. Regardless, fighting the cost-of-living crisis is top of mind for Luxon, as is maintaining fruitful trade relations with China. However, Wellington will seek to deepen security ties with the United States and the Pacific Islands due to growing concerns over China's military role in the region.
Background: Prime Minister and charismatic leader of the Labour Party Jacinda Ardern stepped down in January after claiming she had "no more in the tank." Since then, Labour has struggled to regain voter support under interim leader Chris Hipkins.
Turkey: Ankara Tries to Negotiate Release of Hostages, Support for Gazans
What Happened: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the leader of Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas, political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, discussed the ongoing Israel-Gaza war and the release of hostages in a call on Oct. 16, Al-Monitor reported the same day.
Why It Matters: Turkey is leveraging its position as a conduit between Hamas, which it does not recognize as a terrorist organization, and Israel to stabilize the region and gain influence. If Turkey's negotiations succeed, Turkey's role as a regional player will grow, which would help the country regain some political credibility as a negotiator after its efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war failed. However, Turkey only resumed full diplomatic ties with Israel in 2022, and Israel may be reluctant to work with a mediator that does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization. This means Ankara may not have enough credibility with Israel to foster successful negotiations at this scale.
Background: Turkey, along with other neighboring countries, has called for de-escalation in the region amid continued airstrikes and reports of Hamas holding at least 199 hostages in Gaza.
China: Beijing Orders Banks to Extend Debt Lifeline to Local Governments
What Happened: China's central bank ordered major state-owned banks to extend loan maturities and reduce interest rates on loans to local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in 12 "high risk" regions the week of Oct. 9, Reuters reported on Oct. 17. The banks must also offer these LGFVs new loans to help them make payments.
Why It Matters: This funding lifeline will defuse immediate risks of local government debt defaults, which may give cities more budgetary room to stimulate economic growth with tax cuts and subsidies. However, it also transfers LFGV debt risks onto China's banking system and fails to deal with the issue of depressed local government revenues, raising the question of how they will repay these extended debts down the line. If Beijing offers similar relief to the real estate sector, it could stimulate China's economic growth while raising long-term debt bubble risks.
Background: Reuters sources added that new loan terms should not exceed 10 years and that new interest rates should not be lower than China's Treasury bond rates, or around 2.7% on 10-year bonds. Overdue LGFV loans due in 2024 or before will be classified as "normal," not non-performing.
U.S., Israel: Biden to Visit Israel in Show of Wartime Support
What Happened: U.S. President Joe Biden plans to visit Tel Aviv, Israel, on Oct. 18 to show solidarity for wartime Israel and will hear military plans for the operations in Gaza, including possible asks for military support from the United States, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 17. From there, Biden will meet with the leaders of Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority in Jordan to discuss possible humanitarian solutions for Gaza.
Why It Matters: Biden's visit to Tel Aviv will be a strong show of support for Israel and demonstrate that the United States would likely directly intervene against an Iranian attack. The latter effect creates a strong risk of at least limited regional escalation that could develop into a large, sustained regional war. However, Biden's visit to Jordan will also focus on trying to minimize the diplomatic fallout of Israel's operations in Gaza.
Background: The White House has been working behind the scenes to pressure Israel into allowing humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, in part to earn the release of hostages. However, Washington has also been clear that it will support Israel's military operation and help provide deterrence against Iran and the Lebanon-based militant and political group Hezbollah.
U.S., Marshall Islands: Third and Final COFA Signed, Waiting on Congressional Ratification
What Happened: The United States and the Marshall Islands renewed their Compact of Free Association on Oct. 16, Reuters reported the next day. The deal will provide the Marshall Islands $2.3 billion over 20 years, oblige the United States to defend the Marshall Islands, and grant the United States exclusive naval access to the Marshall Islands' territorial waters.
Why It Matters: The U.S. Congress still needs to ratify the COFA before it goes into effect, and while it is likely to do so, the timetable is uncertain. In the meantime, funding shortfalls will make the Marshall Islands' economy vulnerable, as it is heavily reliant on COFA money. The same holds true for Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, which are also waiting for Congress to approve their COFAs. Slow COFA ratification will underscore to all three countries that they are not high priorities for the United States, which could make them more receptive to Chinese offers to fill the void.
Background: The COFA countries are sparsely populated but hold vast stretches of ocean territory, rendering exclusive naval access highly strategically valuable amid U.S.-China competition. All three COFAs lapsed on Oct. 1. Congress' 45-day stopgap funding measure to avert a government shutdown included funding for the COFA countries but left shortfalls that cannot be rectified until Congress ratifies the renewed deals.
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