To All,
Good Saturday morning October 21 2023
I hope you all have a great weekend
Well the workers are here taping off the dining room and kitchen from top to bottom to satart spraying the texture on them to be ready for painting next week.
Yesterday I drove up to Los Angeles with three of my black belts to go to the funeral of my Grand Master Chan Young Kim. It was my pleasure to know him for over 35 years. He was a great man and I will miss him. We had many conversations over the years and there was always a life lesson in them.. This is a man that grew up during the Korean War and was overrun by both sides back and forth and saw the horrors of war at a very young age. Much of his family ended up in the north and they never heard much about them. His list of accomplishments is long and impressive all over the world. He flew into Los Angeles in1973 with300 dollars in his pocket and started his school. Teaching martial arts and head of the Tae Kwon Do referees in the Olympic Games are only a couple of his many accomplishments. His son who we lost last summer won the heavy weight division Gold Medal in the Olympic games in Korea in 1988and was also a Grand Master and trained many for the Olympic games. He always said he was blessed at having 7 Grandsons and a wife who ran the family. She is a great lady and to watch her yesterday stand at the head of the family and personal greet 100s of well wishers was something I will never forget. She remembered who I was. What a treat. skip
Regards
Skip
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Today in Naval and Marine Corps History thanks to NHHC
October 21
On This day
1797 The frigate Constitution launches at Edmund Hartt's Shipyard, Boston, Mass. The ship is now the oldest commissioned ship in the U.S. Navy.
1862 The Cairo class ironclad river gunboat Louisville, under the command of Lt. Cmdr. R.W. Meade III, escorts the steamer Meteor, whose embarked Army troops landed at Bledsoes Landing and Hamblins Landing, Ark. The towns are burned in reprisal for attacks by Confederate guerrillas on mail steamer Gladiator early in the morning of
1864 The wooden side-wheel cruiser Fort Jackson captures steamer Wando at sea, east of Cape Romain, S.C., with cargo of cotton.
1942 The British submarine HMS Seraph lands Navy Capt. Jerauld Wright and four Army officers including Maj. Gen. Mark Clark at Cherchel, French North Africa to meet with a French military delegation to assess French attitude towards future Allied landings (Operation Torch). Eventually, the French agreed to the mission.
1942 USS Guardfish (SS 217) sinks Japanese freighter Nichiho Maru about 120 miles north-northeast of Formosa while USS Gudgeon (SS 211) attacks a Japanese convoy in the Bismarck Sea and sinks the transport Choko Maru.
1952 USS Lewis (DE 535) aids two Korean minesweepers under fire at Wonson Harbor. As she approaches, at least four enemy batteries open up on the destroyer escort. Lewis returns fire and lays down a smoke screen to cover the minesweepers retreat. Shortly thereafter the destroyer escort takes two 75mm shell hits, killing six crewmen outright and mortally wounding a seventh. The second hit explodes on the main deck, port side, lightly wounding one sailor.
1989 Los Angeles-class submarine USS Topeka (SSN 754) is commissioned at Groton, CT
1995 USS Stethem (DDG 63) is commissioned at Port Hueneme, Calif., and named in honor of Bronze Star and Purple Heart recipient, Robert Dean Stethem. She is the 13th Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the U.S. Navy.
2017 Expeditionary Sea Base USNS Hershel "Woody" Williams (ESB 4) is put into service during a christening ceremony at General Dynamics NASSCO, San Diego.
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Today in World History: October 21
1096 Seljuk Turks at Chivitot slaughter thousands of German crusaders.
1529 The Pope names Henry VIII of England Defender of the Faith after defending the seven sacraments against Luther.
1600 Tokugawa Ieyasu defeats his enemies in battle and affirms his position as Japan's most powerful warlord.
1790 The Tricolor is chosen as the official flag of France.
1805 Vice Admiral and Viscount Horatio Nelson wins his greatest victory over a Franco-Spanish fleet in the Battle of Trafalgar, fought off Cape Trafalgar, Spain. Nelson is fatally wounded in the battle, but lives long enough to see victory.
1837 Under a flag of truce during peace talks, U.S. troops siege the Indian Seminole Chief Osceola in Florida.
1861 The Battle of Ball's Bluff, Va. begins, a disastrous Union defeat which sparks Congressional investigations.
1867 Many leaders of the Kiowa, Comanche and Kiowa-Apache sign a peace treaty at Medicine Lodge, Kan. Comanche Chief Quanah Parker refused to accept the treaty terms.
1872 The U.S. Naval Academy admits John H. Conyers, the first African American to be accepted.
1879 After 14 months of testing, Thomas Edison first demonstrates his electric lamp, hoping to one day compete with gaslight.
1904 Panamanians clash with U.S. Marines in Panama in a brief uprising.
1917 The first U.S. troops enter the front lines at Sommerviller under French command.
1939 As war heats up with Germany, the British war cabinet holds its first meeting in the underground war room in London.
1940 Ernest Hemingway's novel For Whom the Bell Tolls is published.
1942 Eight American and British officers land from a submarine on an Algerian beach to take measure of Vichy French to the Operation Torch landings.
1950 North Korean Premier Kim Il-Sung establishes a new capital at Sinuiju on the Yalu River opposite the Chinese City of Antung.
1959 The Guggenheim Museum, designed by Frank Lloyd Wright, opens in Manhattan.
1961 Bob Dylan records his first album in a single day at a cost of $400.
1967 The "March on the Pentagon," protesting American involvement in Vietnam , draws 50,000 protesters.
1969 Israel's Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan resigns over disagreements with Prime Minister Menachem Begin over policies related to the Palestinians.
1983 The United States sends a ten-ship task force to Grenada.
1994 North Korea and the US sign an agreement requiring North Korea to halts its nuclear weapons program and agree to international inspections.
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ROLLING THUNDER REMEMBERED Thanks to the Bear … Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
Skip… For The List for Saturday, 21 October 2023… Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)
From the archives of rollingthunderremembered.com post for 21 October 1968…
Lincoln: "A house divided against itself cannot stand."
Thanks to Micro
To remind folks that these are from the Vietnam Air Losses site that Micro put together. You click on the url below and get what happened each day to the crew of the aircraft. This one is exciting……Skip
From Vietnam Air Losses site for Saturday October 21
October 21: https://www.vietnamairlosses.com/loss.php?id=305
This one was pretty hairy….skip
This following work accounts for every fixed wing loss of the Vietnam War and you can use it to read more about the losses in The Bear's Daily account. Even better it allows you to add your updated information to the work to update for history…skip Vietnam Air Losses Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at: https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.
This is a list of all Helicopter Pilots Who Died in the Vietnam War . Listed by last name and has other info https://www.vhpa.org/KIA/KIAINDEX.HTM
MOAA - Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Servicemembers Killed in the Vietnam War
The site works, find anyone you knew in "search" feature.
https://www.vvmf.org/Wall-of-Faces/ )
Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Service members Killed in the Vietnam War
By: Kipp Hanley
AUGUST 15, 2022
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Thanks to Interesting Facts
Whats in a name
The Most Popular Baby Names in Each Decade
If you've ever wondered how popular your name is, it's easy to find out. In 1998, the Social Security Administration began ranking the top 1,000 most common first names submitted on Social Security card applications for each year dating back to 1880. The administration then whittled down the list to the 200 most popular names of each decade, tallying up how many people share the same identifier. That list has become a tool for parents-to-be looking for the perfect name, and a warning for those trying to avoid name trends. Here are the most popular boy and girl names from the past century.
1OF 10
1920s
Credit: Istomina Olena/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Robert, John, James, William, Charles
Top Girl Names: Mary, Dorothy, Helen, Betty, Margaret
Boy names were relatively traditional and Eurocentric 100 years ago. William and Charles gave off strong, regal impressions, which is no surprise considering their origins — both have Germanic roots and were used abundantly among British, French, and Spanish monarchs. While girl names were similar to the prior decade, newcomer Betty was less formal than its original form of Elizabeth during a decade where women sought financial and social independence (but still not as zany as flapper-inspired names such as Fern and Iola).
2OF 10
1930s
Credit: Everett Collection/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Robert, James, John, William, Richard
Top Girl Names: Mary, Betty, Barbara, Shirley, Patricia
Seemingly out of nowhere, the name Patricia catapulted to the country's top-five spot for girl names, when just 10 years prior it ranked 104. But why? It's possible an influx of Irish immigrants in the early 20th century helped popularize the name. As a feminine form of Patrick — Ireland's patron saint — Patricia seems traditionally Irish, though a survey of Irish Americans suggests it's more commonly used in the U.S. than in the Emerald Isle itself. It's likely a name that bridged the gap between heritage and new homeland, helping young Irish Americans hold onto their family history while blending into American culture with an easy-to-pronounce name. Patricia remained a top-five name throughout the 1950s, spawning shortened names such as Trish, Patti, and Tricia as its popularity waned.
3OF 10
1940s
Credit: Everett Collection/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: James, Robert, John, William, Richard
Top Girl Names: Mary, Linda, Barbara, Patricia, Carol
Traditional names like Richard and James continued to reign supreme for boys born in the 1940s; with an ongoing war, it's likely parents reused family names to honor loved ones stationed overseas. New names for girls, however, emerged, with Carol becoming a trendy alternative to the longer Caroline. Often given to wintertime babies, Carol was considered an uplifting holiday name that honored the season's musical hymns. It peaked during the 1940s and fell from the top-10 list by 1951. Equally prominent Barbara, which became common in the 1800s, also fell out of style by the early '50s, but ranks overall as the sixth-most popular name for a girl over the last century, with 1.3 million women sharing the name.
4OF 10
1950s
Credit: Helene Woodbine/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: James, Michael, Robert, John, David
Top Girl Names: Mary, Linda, Patricia, Susan, Deborah
The 1950s marked a shift in Mary's role as the top girl name of all time, ending a run that had dominated the name leaderboards since the 1880s — the Social Security Administration's oldest data. It's no surprise considering the name means "beloved" and is an ode to the Virgin Mary. History has no shortage of famed Marys, ranging from queens and actresses to fictional characters like Mary Poppins. While less common now (holding spot 124 in 2020), similar names have carried on, such as Maria and Mariah. From 1921 to 2020, more than 3.1 million babies in the U.S. shared the simple, four-letter name.
5OF 10
1960s
Credit: Serdar Tibet/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Michael, David, John, James, Robert
Top Girl Names: Lisa, Mary, Susan, Karen, Kimberly
Leonardo da Vinci's most famous painting may have spurred a name trend during the 1960s. The "Mona Lisa" made its first trip to the U.S. in 1963, displayed at the National Gallery of Art in Washington, D.C., and created social excitement that led 2 million spectators to view the portrait. While the name Lisa had reached the number one spot a year before the painting's tour, it held firm for seven more years until being dethroned in 1970. The '60s also ceded some traditional boy names for more modern styles, with Michael starting its run as the top boy name for decades to come.
6OF 10
1970s
Credit: Lyudmila2509/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Michael, Christopher, Jason, David, James
Top Girl Names: Jennifer, Amy, Melissa, Michelle, Kimberly
The 1970s brought about a major shift in common boy names. With Richard and William becoming "old-fashioned," parents opted for the ever-popular Michael and David. But one name ascended in a way few other names have: Jason. The name shot up the charts from spot 87 in the 1960s to third place in the 1970s. While sounding modern, Jason actually has Greek origins; in mythology, heroic Jason embarks on an epic quest to restore his family to his homeland's throne. The name fad quickly dissipated, dropping down to the 11th-most popular spot in the 1980s and further in the '90s, but it has echoes in 2010's Jaxon and Jaxson.
7OF 10
1980s
Credit: Zajaczver/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Michael, Christopher, Matthew, Joshua, David
Top Girl Names: Jessica, Jennifer, Amanda, Ashley, Sarah
Christopher wasn't a new name in the 1980s — it has Latin and Greek origins, becoming common among Christian followers during the Middle Ages in honor of a third-century saint who protected travelers. It's unclear why Christopher reached such heights in the '80s, though it could have been influenced by the number of Christophers on stage and screen; actors Christopher Reeve, Christopher Walken, and Christopher Lloyd got their big breaks in the late '70s. For girls, names like Jessica and Sarah maintained peak popularity until the early 2000s, around the same time parents began seeking out more unique names.
8OF 10
1990s
Credit: Lyudmila2509/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Michael, Christopher, Matthew, Joshua, Jacob
Top Girl Names: Jessica, Ashley, Emily, Sarah, Samantha
The name Michael was the highest-ranking boy name for five short years — 1954 to 1959 — only to come roaring back in 1961 and then holding the No. 1 spot through the 1990s. Its Hebrew origins refer to the sword-wielding archangel Michael, at one time making it a common name among soldiers and military families. In its last decade of acclaim, the name was boosted by a number of celebrities: singers Michael Jackson and Michael Bolton, basketball great Michael Jordan, and actors Michael Keaton and Michael J. Fox. In 2020, Michael remained the 12th most popular name and was the moniker given to 4.3 million boys since 1921.
9OF 10
2000s
Credit: claudyo2001/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Jacob, Michael, Joshua, Matthew, Daniel
Top Girl Names: Emily, Madison, Emma, Olivia, Hannah
New millennium, new names ... right? Not so much. The top names of the 2000s — while seemingly fresh compared to years of Jennifers, Lisas, and Williams — mostly have old roots. The popular boy names have biblical ties, along with Hannah and Olivia (which refers to the symbolic olive tree). Madison, traditionally a boy name, was commonplace throughout the 1800s. Just 100 years prior, Emma was the 13th most popular name in 1900, ranking low on baby name charts until the early 2000s.
10OF 10
2010s
Credit: Oksana Kuzmina/ Shutterstock
Top Boy Names: Noah, Liam, Jacob, William, Mason
Top Girl Names: Emma, Olivia, Sophia, Isabella, Ava
Just like decades before, naming trends don't often disappear easily — and it's evident with names like Emma, Olivia, and Sophia hanging on for a second decade. Compared to popular names 100 years before, modern names feel like a departure from Eurocentric names, and that's because naming websites and social media provide access to more diverse names than ever before. Where some parents look to trend-free, steadfast names (such as William), others consider unique monikers that help their kids stand out in a world of Isabellas (consider Athena, ranked at 173).
While new baby name trends are emerging — specifically nature-based names, like August and Sage, and gender-neutral names, like Charlie and Blake — there's no clear science as to why some names become standouts while others languish for decades. Some linguists and naming experts theorize that times of social change and upheaval spawn new, creative names. If that's the case, 2020's top picks may be the most unique we've seen in a while.
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This Day in U S Military History
October 21
1797 – The 44-gun 204-foot U.S. Navy frigate USS Constitution, also known as Old Ironsides, was launched in Boston's harbor. It was never defeated in 42 battles. 216 crew members set sail again in 1997 for its 200th birthday. Although her construction is almost halted by a 1796 peace treaty with Algiers, the CONSTITUTION is launched-christened by visiting Capt. James Sever using a bottle of Madeira. It is actually the third attempt to launch her; the first was a month earlier, when the ship sticks after moving only 27 feet. Two days later she moves another 31 feet before sticking once again. For the third attempt, workers make the launching ways steeper, which finally enables a successful event. The public, which includes several French aristocrats, is warned beforehand that the launch of such a large ship might cause a dangerously large wave, but none actually materializes during the event.
1837 – Under a flag of truce during peace talks, U.S. troops sieged the Indian Seminole Chief Osceola in Florida. Osceola, who was sick with malaria, knew the Indians could fight no more. He went to the General's fort at St. Augustine with a white flag. When Osceola went to General Jesup the General had his men surround Osceola. They threw the white flag to the ground and put chains on his hands and feet. The Seminoles were so angry with Osceola's capture that they continued to fight for the next five years.
1879 – Thomas Edison invents a workable electric light bulb at his laboratory in Menlo Park, N.J. which was tested the next day and lasted 13.5 hours. This would be the invention of the first commercially practical incandescent light. Popular belief is that he invented the first light bulb, which he did not.
1917 – Members of the First Division of the U.S. Army training in Luneville, France, became the first Americans to see action on the front lines of World War I. The first U.S. troops entered the front lines at Sommervillier under French command. During the night, a battalion from each regiment and designated batteries of the division moved in beside corresponding units of the 18th French Division and began training in caring for themselves in the trenches, in patrolling, observation, and artillery procedures. The battalions and batteries were rotated at ten-day intervals until all had been at the front.
1942 – On Guadalcanal, the Japanese forces, mainly 2nd Infantry Division, under General Maruyama now number 20,000. The plan for the attack on the main American position involves simultaneous attacks to be made northward in the area between the Lunga and Tenaru Rivers, while secondary attacks are made on the American western outposts along the Matanika River. The Japanese lack accurate intelligence concerning the numbers and dispositions of the American troops.
1983 – The United States sent a ten-ship task force to Grenada, one of the smallest independent nations in the Western Hemisphere and one of the southernmost Caribbean islands in the Windward chain. The Cuban government had decided to utilize the former British colony as a holding place for arms and military equipment, complete with a major airport. Eastern Caribbean nations fully understood the implication of the communist threat and called upon the United States for help. The response was Operation Urgent Fury, a multinational, multiservice effort. Commanding officers of the US Navy ships have not yet been told what the mission in Grenada–to evacuate U.S. citizens, neutralize any resistance, stabilize the situation and maintain the peace—will be.
Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day
*MOON, HAROLD H., JR.
Rank and organization: Private, U.S. Army, Company G, 34th Infantry, 24th Infantry Division. Place and date: Pawig, Leyte, Philippine Islands, 21 October 1944. Entered service at: Gardena, Calif. Birth: Albuquerque, N. Mex. G.O. No.: 104, 15 November 1945. Citation: He fought with conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity when powerful Japanese counterblows were being struck in a desperate effort to annihilate a newly won beachhead. In a forward position, armed with a submachinegun, he met the brunt of a strong, well-supported night attack which quickly enveloped his platoon's flanks. Many men in nearby positions were killed or injured, and Pvt. Moon was wounded as his foxhole became the immediate object of a concentration of mortar and machinegun fire. Nevertheless, he maintained his stand, poured deadly fire into the enemy, daringly exposed himself to hostile fire time after time to exhort and inspire what American troops were left in the immediate area. A Japanese officer, covered by machinegun fire and hidden by an embankment, attempted to knock out his position with grenades, but Pvt. Moon, after protracted and skillful maneuvering, killed him. When the enemy advanced a light machinegun to within 20 yards of the shattered perimeter and fired with telling effects on the remnants of the platoon, he stood up to locate the gun and remained exposed while calling back range corrections to friendly mortars which knocked out the weapon. A little later he killed 2 Japanese as they charged an aid man. By dawn his position, the focal point of the attack for more than 4 hours, was virtually surrounded. In a fanatical effort to reduce it and kill its defender, an entire platoon charged with fixed bayonets. Firing from a sitting position, Pvt. Moon calmly emptied his magazine into the advancing horde, killing 18 and repulsing the attack. In a final display of bravery, he stood up to throw a grenade at a machinegun which had opened fire on the right flank. He was hit and instantly killed, falling in the position from which he had not been driven by the fiercest enemy action. Nearly 200 dead Japanese were found within 100 yards of his foxhole. The continued tenacity, combat sagacity, and magnificent heroism with which Pvt. Moon fought on against overwhelming odds contributed in a large measure to breaking up a powerful enemy threat and did much to insure our initial successes during a most important operation.
*WILSON, RICHARD G.
Rank and organization: Private First Class, U.S. Army, Co. 1, Medical Company, 187th Airborne Infantry Regiment. Place and date: Opari, Korea, 21 October 1950. Entered service at: Cape Girardeau Mo. Born: 19 August 1931, Marion, Ill. G.O. No.: 64, 2 August 1951. Citation: Pfc. Wilson distinguished himself by conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity above and beyond the call of duty in action. As medical aid man attached to Company I, he accompanied the unit during a reconnaissance in force through the hilly country near Opari. The main body of the company was passing through a narrow valley flanked on 3 sides by high hills when the enemy laid down a barrage of mortar, automatic-weapons and small-arms fire. The company suffered a large number of casualties from the intense hostile fire while fighting its way out of the ambush. Pfc. Wilson proceeded at once to move among the wounded and administered aid to them oblivious of the danger to himself, constantly exposing himself to hostile fire. The company commander ordered a withdrawal as the enemy threatened to encircle and isolate the company. As his unit withdrew Private Wilson assisted wounded men to safety and assured himself that none were left behind. After the company had pulled back he learned that a comrade previously thought dead had been seen to be moving and attempting to crawl to safety. Despite the protests of his comrades, unarmed and facing a merciless enemy, Pfc. Wilson returned to the dangerous position in search of his comrade. Two days later a patrol found him lying beside the man he returned to aid. He had been shot several times while trying to shield and administer aid to the wounded man. Pfc. Wilson's superb personal bravery, consummate courage and willing self-sacrifice for his comrades reflect untold glory upon himself and uphold the esteemed traditions of the military service.
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AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for October 21, FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY
21 October
1917: First flight test of the 12-cylinder Liberty engine in a Curtiss HS-1 Flying Boat completed at Buffalo. Later, both the engine and aircraft were adopted as standard service types.
1929: Colonial Flying Service and Scully Walton Ambulance Company, New York, organized an Air Ambulance Service. (24)
1936: Pan American Airways initiated regular weekly 6-day passenger service between San Francisco and Manila. (24)
1942: The India Air Task Force sent B-24s to bomb mines near Kuyeh in the first offensive mission north of the Yellow River. (24) The VIII Bomber Command sent 15 B-17s on the first raid on the U-boat pens at LorientKeroman. Eight bombers also hit the airfield at Cherbourg/Maupertus. The command lost three bombers in the missions. (4)
1947: The Northrop YB-49 Flying Wing made its first flight in a trip from the Hawthorne plant to Muroc AFB. (3)
1950: KOREAN WAR. In the first use of a helicopter in support of an airborne operation, the 3d Air Rescue Squadron sent H-5s to evacuate some 35 paratroopers and rescue 7 American POWs from the Sukchon and Sunchon area. A C-47 used loudspeakers to persuade some 500 enemy troops hiding in houses near Kunmori to surrender. Combat Cargo Command began aeromedical evacuations from Pyongyang. (28)
1951: KOREAN WAR. Through 30 October, the enemy flew sorties over N. Korea daily for the first time in the war. MiGs in numbers over one hundred, consistently outnumbered the F-86 formations, downing three at a cost of five enemy fighters lost to Sabres. (28)
1960: A Mace-B tactical missile, designed to carry a nuclear bomb 1,800 miles, launched from Cape Canaveral. (24)
1961: The USAF launched MIDAS IV, a heat-sensing satellite that could detect missile launches, from Point Arguello into a 2,100-mile circular orbit. Under Project West Force, the Midas IV then ejected millions of copper wires to form a reflecting belt in space to aid radio communications. The wires failed to disperse as planned.
1965: Gen Curtis E. LeMay, former CSAF, received the 1965 Collier Trophy, American aviation's highest honor.
1981: EURO-NATO JOINT JET PILOT TRAINING PROGRAM. Sheppard AFB started training pilots from Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Turkey, and the UK under this program. (16) (26)
1987: The Japanese Defense Agency selected a modified F-16 (designated the SX-3) as its new close support/sea patrol aircraft to replace its Mitsubishi F-1s and F-4EJs. The AFLC ferried the first four F-16D Fighting Falcons to Murted AB, Turkey. (16)
1999: The USAF awarded the GATM equipment contract for the entire KC-135 fleet to Rockwell Collins. The $600 million contract covered 544 KC-135s, 20 flight simulators, and 43 other C-135- derived aircraft. (22)
2003: Through 4 November, six ANG C-130s and two AFRC C-130s, equipped with Modular Airborne Fire Fighting Systems (MAFFS), flew 48 missions to drop 129,600 gallons of fire retardant on fires in Southern California's Simi Valley. Ten wild fires in Southern California consumed more than 745,000 acres and destroyed over 3,400 homes in this period. (32)
I remember this one well as we had to evacuate our home in Poway….but in 2007 it was much worse and we evacuated again almost lost the house which got singed a bit and full of smoke….skip
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THANKS TO BRETT
Stratfor snippets - EU/U.S., U.K., Vietnam/Saudi Arabia, U.S., Venezuela, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, India, China
EU, U.S.: Trans-Atlantic Steel and Critical Minerals Negotiations Stall
What Happened: Negotiations between the European Union and the United States for an agreement on the so-called Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum, or GSA, and a deal on critical minerals have reportedly stalled after a meeting between U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis, Reuters reported Oct. 19. The news came ahead of an Oct. 20 summit in Washington between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, and U.S. President Joe Biden during which the two sides were hoping to announce a breakthrough on both deals.
Why It Matters: The deadlock in negotiations confirms that the two sides remain distant on key elements of both deals, and that a comprehensive and legally binding agreement for the GSA by Oct. 31 appears unlikely. The main point of contention is the U.S. intention to maintain a snapback mechanism for reimposing tariffs in case the European Union fails to comply with the terms of the agreement, while the bloc would prefer a complete removal. As neither Brussels nor Washington wants a return of Trump-era steel tariffs in the absence of a deal, however, the most likely scenario is for them to remain engaged in negotiations, postpone the deadline and seek a high-level political agreement by the end of the year for later implementation. Meanwhile, the lack of an agreement on critical minerals means European companies will remain unable to access some of the benefits in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
Background: A preliminary GSA in 2021 had paused steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2018, setting a deadline of Oct. 31, 2023, for reaching a binding agreement, in the absence of which tariffs are set to automatically reenter force from 2024.
U.K.: Labour Wins By-Election in Two Key Conservative Constituencies
What Happened: The main opposition Labour Party won two by-elections in formerly Tory strongholds in the United Kingdom, overturning the ruling Conservative Party's substantial majorities in Mid Bedfordshire (north of London) and Tamworth in central England, the BBC reported Oct. 20.
Why It Matters: By-elections in the United Kingdom never perfectly reflect voters' intentions at the national level due to the role local dynamics play in the polls, and the fact that by-elections see lower turnout compared with national votes. But the Conservatives had previously controlled Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth since 1931 and 1996, respectively. The ruling party had also resoundingly won both constituencies during the last national ballot in 2019; and Tamworth, in particular, strongly voted for ''Leave'' in the 2016 Brexit referendum as well. The results of two special elections thus nonetheless serve a significant blow to Conservatives ahead of next year's national election, and increase the prospect of a Labour landslide victory in 2024 if the opposition party is able to replicate its recent success in other pro-Brexit, Conservative strongholds during the general election.
Background: The by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, both of which were triggered by parliamentary resignations, saw a swing from the Conservative to the Labour party of 20.5% and 23.9%, respectively. The majority in Mid Bedfordshire was the largest the Labour Party was ever able to overturn in a by-election, while Labour's swing from the Conservatives in Tamworth was the second largest since 1945. However, turnout in both votes was low (44% in Mid Bedfordshire and 36% in Tamworth), which suggests results at the general elections are unlikely to see a similar gap between the two parties.
Vietnam, Saudi Arabia: New Deals Intended to Act as 'Bridge' Between Regions
What Happened: Vietnam and Saudi Arabia have agreed to several memorandums of understanding ahead of the Gulf Cooperation Council-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit, The Hanoi Times reported Oct. 20. The memorandums of understanding focus on industrial cooperation (particularly in energy), tourism and trade promotion. During the past nine months of this year, Saudi-Vietnamese bilateral trade reached more than $2 billion.
Why It Matters: The memorandums of understanding provide significant institutional groundwork to expand trade ties by building out numerous legal frameworks and bilateral cooperation mechanisms in several sectors. The deals could be more impactful for Vietnam, which is looking for capital for modernizing infrastructure projects, a sector Saudi Arabia has been building out in recent years. More broadly, the deals could be a catalyst for wider regional collaboration as both ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council pursue space for trade and cooperation that involves autonomy from the United States, European Union and China.
Background: The recent deals come after a high-level Saudi delegation visited Vietnam in September. Bilateral Saudi-Vietnam trade reached over $2 billion over the last nine months. The GCC-ASEAN summit will conclude Oct. 20.
U.S.: Biden Stresses Need to Support Both Israel and Ukraine in Public Address
What Happened: In a televised address on Oct. 19, U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated the need to support the United States' democratic allies in Ukraine and Israel for the United States, stressing that any reduction in support for either of these countries would pose a greater and more costly threat to U.S. national security in the long run, Reuters reported the same day. During this speech, Biden also appealed to Congress to pass a $105 billion national security-oriented spending package that is anticipated to include $61 billion in aid for Ukraine and $14 billion in aid for Israel.
Why It Matters: Biden's speech comes amid growing divisions among Americans over how their country should respond to the latest conflict in Gaza in light of other security threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. By tying both Israeli and Ukrainian aid to U.S. national security goals — namely, protecting Washington's democratic allies — Biden's speech was aimed at bridging those divides and, in turn, fostering bipartisan support for his proposed funding package. However, there are growing concerns that continuing to supply both Ukraine and Israel may leave the United States with reduced stockpiles in the event that it gets directly involved in a conflict. And as the two wars rage on in Gaza and Ukraine, Biden's request for emergency aid will likely also be the first of many, raising the risk of aid fatigue on Capitol Hill even if this current request is approved.
Background: Biden's speech follows his recent visit to Israel, where he affirmed U.S. support for the country and promised to provide more military aid. Some Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Congress — which is still tied up struggling to select a speaker of the House — have called for decreasing U.S. aid to Ukraine, while some Democratic lawmakers have expressed skepticism over the White House's ardent support for Israel's new military campaign against Hamas (especially in the wake of the deadly Oct. 17 hospital blast in Gaza).
Venezuela: Political Prisoners Released Following Agreement With Opposition
What Happened: Five political prisoners in Venezuela, including members of the political opposition, have been released following an agreement with the Venezuelan opposition and pressure from the United States, Reuters reported Oct. 18. Three of the five freed prisoners have not been named, but two have been: Roland Carreno, a journalist, and former legislator Juan Requesens.
Why It Matters: Venezuela's decision to release the political prisoners, while a positive development in the short term, should not be viewed as a signpost that President Nicolas Maduro is embracing democratic governance and transparency. Given that over 200 people remain imprisoned in Venezuela for political reasons and that there are no apparent divisions in the country's governing faction, Maduro has little incentive to adjust his overall approach to the United States. However, if Maduro wishes to retain access to lucrative oil licenses following the United States' decision on Wednesday to ease sanctions on the Venezuelan oil and natural gas sectors, Caracas may be willing to continue along the current path of diplomatic engagement.
Background: On Oct. 17, Venezuela agreed in principle to conduct internationally monitored presidential elections in the second half of 2024 but stopped short of reinstating opposition political figures. Additionally, on Oct. 18, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden announced an easing of Trump-era sanctions on the Venezuela oil and gas sectors, allowing Caracas to do business with U.S. and European energy firms.
Sri Lanka: IMF and Government Reach Staff-Level Agreement on First Review of Bailout
What Happened: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Sri Lanka have reached a staff-level agreement on a first review of the country's $3 billion bailout, paving the way for potential IMF board approval in the coming weeks that would release a second tranche of approximately $330 million, Reuters reported Oct. 20. In a subsequent press release, the IMF said board approval would be contingent on Sri Lanka's continued implementation of previously-committed reforms and the completion of financing assurance reviews, which will include sufficient progress in debt restructuring.
Why It Matters: The staff-level agreement marks progress in the country's effort to secure a second bailout tranche. However, while Sri Lanka will likely continue to demonstrate broad commitment to the IMF's bailout conditions in the coming weeks — including through policies and adjustments in the country's budget, which is expected to be presented in November — progress in its debt restructuring will be more uncertain, sustaining potential for additional delays on the tranche's release.
Background: The IMF had traveled to Sri Lanka and conducted its first review before initially failing to reach a staff-level agreement in late September. The fund noted expected revenue shortfalls and slowed foreign exchange reserve accumulation, among other things, for the initial failure to reach a staff-level agreement.
Taiwan: Presidential Frontrunner Promises Not to 'Rule Out' Nuclear Power
What Happened: Taiwan's vice president and leading presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) William Lai said that the government ''will not rule out the use of safe, waste-free nuclear'' energy during a press conference, Focus Taiwan has reported Oct. 19.
Why It Matters: Taiwan's three-way presidential race leading up to the Jan. 2024 general elections seems to be moderating some of the hard-line energy and national security policies of the DPP and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, with the KMT making national defense a key pillar of its campaign. Should third-party candidate Ko Wen-je's Taiwan's People's Party (TPP) make sizable gains in the legislature come January, as polling currently predicts, the moderating effect of the TPP could last for the next four to eight years as the KMT or DPP must garner TPP support to pass policies.
Background: President Tsai Ing-wen, former leader of the DPP, has staunchly opposed nuclear energy since coming to office in 2016, pledging to shut down Taiwan's only remaining nuclear reactor in Pingtung by 2025.
India: Canada Recalls Diplomats, Suspends Consular Services Amid Diplomatic Row
What Happened: Canada recalled 41 of its 62 diplomats in India after the Indian government said it would revoke their diplomatic immunity, escalating a row between the two countries over the death of a Sikh separatist in Canada, the AP reported Oct. 19, citing an announcement made by Canada's foreign minister. Canada has also announced it was temporarily suspending consular services in the Indian cities of Bengaluru, Chandigarh and Mumbai; however, such services will remain available in the capital New Delhi.
Why It Matters: The spat over diplomatic immunity comes amid increased tensions between Canada and India after the former accused the latter of being involved in the June killing of a Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in a suburb of Vancouver. The suspension of Canadian consular services in Bengaluru, Chandigarh and Mumbai will potentially cause visa delays and travel disruptions. However, the suspensions are temporary and additional disruptions will likely also be limited, as the two countries have both expressed a desire to keep their diplomatic row over Nijjar's death from impacting other aspects of their relationships: The Indian government recently confirmed that it does not plan on imposing measures to curb imports and investments from Canada, while Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) department has reiterated that the country has ''a strong connection with Indian citizens, and will continue to welcome them.''
Background: In a Sept. 18 speech before the House of Commons, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canadian security agencies were ''actively pursuing credible allegations'' that ''agents of the government of India'' were potentially involved in the June killing of Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and Sikh separatist leader, in British Columbia. India rejected the allegations; New Delhi has also accused Ottawa of failing to take action against Sikh separatist leaders and supporters in Canada, whom India views as national security threats.
China: Beijing Imposes Export Curbs on Graphite, the Largest Component of EV Batteries
What Happened: China's Ministry of Commerce announced Oct. 20 that starting Dec. 1, exporters of two graphite products — high-purity, high-hardness and high-intensity synthetic graphite material and natural flake graphite and its products — will need to apply and receive a special export license. Graphite exports had been subject to temporary export control orders since 2006, but the temporary export controls of less sensitive graphite products (mainly used in the steel and chemical industries) were dropped, as the more sensitive graphite products (mainly used in electric vehicle battery anodes) are now subject to dual-use export controls.
Why It Matters: The export controls represent a significant retaliatory move by China against recent European and U.S. moves against China's technology sector; they will likely cause EV battery costs to increase slightly in the West, as graphite is an indispensable part of EV batteries, in virtually all battery chemistries comprising a quarter of an EV battery by mass and volume. Should China significantly restrict the issuance of licenses for graphite exports, global EV battery production would be majorly impacted, because China accounts for about 60% of global natural graphite production capacity and 90% of global synthetic graphite production.
Background: China also imposed export controls on gallium and germanium that entered into effect in August. Since those export controls began, wrought germanium exports went to virtually zero in August and 1 kilogram in September compared with 8.63 metric tons in July, though a buying spree ahead of the restrictions inflated that figure.
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