To All,
Good Thursday morning 21 November. I spent quite a bit of time cleaning up my email yesterday. When I started there were over 1000 in the In Box and over 120 unread. When I was done there were less than 100 in the inbox and none unread. A lot went into the history folders that I have on many of your interesting bits of history and tales. That gets regularly backed up on now a brand new 5 TB drive. And yes there is no excuse as the shadow file is over 1200 all of the latest are safely filed there for his book. Monday morning Al has way over 600 and DR Rich is over 1400. Keep those stories and bits of history coming as you are all contributors to the daily List in many ways. I can't forget NHHC and Admiral Cox whose daily items and H-Grams have given us so much over the years . When his first one came out I was thrilled and followed and shared them all up to H-gram 84.
Make it a GREAT Day
Regards,
Skip
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This day in Naval and Marine Corps History (thanks to NHHC)
Here is a link to the NHHC website: https://www.history.navy.mil/. Go here to see the director's corner for all 84 H-Grams .
This day in Naval and Marine Corps History .
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November 21
1861—During the Civil War, the screw steamer New London, along with screw steamer R.R. Cuyler and crew members of the screw steamer Massachusetts, capture the Confederate schooner Olive with a cargo of lumber in Mississippi Sound.
1918—U.S. battleships witness the surrender of German High Seas fleet at Rosyth, Firth of Forth, Scotland to U.S. and British fleets.
1942—USS Cincinnati (CL 6) and USS Somers (DD 381) uncover the Norwegian ship SS Skjilbred as being the German blockade runner Anneliese Essberger after setting explosions and boarding the ship. Survivors are taken on board USS Milwaukee (CL 5).
1943—USS Nautilus (SS 168) lands U.S. Marine Corps Reconnaissance Company on Abemama, Gilberts while USS Trigger (SS 237) sinks Japanese freighter Eizan Maru in the Yellow Sea.
1944—USS Sealion (SS 315) sinks the Japanese battleship Kongo and destroyer Urakaze north-northwest of Formosa.
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Today in World History
November 21
1620 Leaders of the Mayflower expedition frame the "Mayflower Compact," designed to bolster unity among the settlers.
1783 Jean de Rozier and the Marquis d'Arlandes make the first free-flight ascent in a balloon to over 500 feet in Paris.
1789 North Carolina ratifies the Constitution, becoming the 12th state to do it.
1855 Franklin Colman, a pro-slavery Missourian, guns down Charles Dow, a Free Stater from Ohio, near Lawrence, Kansas.
1864 From Georgia, Confederate General John B. Hood launches the Franklin-Nashville Campaign into Tennessee.
1904 Motorized omnibuses replace horse-drawn cars in Paris.
1906 In San Juan, President Theodore Roosevelt pledges citizenship for Puerto Rican people.
1907 Cunard liner Mauritania sets a new speed record for steamship travel, 624 nautical miles in a one day run.
1911 Suffragettes storm Parliament in London. All are arrested and all choose prison terms.
1917 German ace Rudolf von Eschwege is killed over Macedonia when he attacks a booby-trapped observation balloon packed with explosives.
1918 The last German troops leave Alsace-Lorraine, France.
1927 Police turn machine guns on striking Colorado mine workers, killing five and wounding 20.
1934 A New York court rules Gloria Vanderbilt unfit for custody of her daughter.
1934 Cole Porter's musical Anything Goes premieres at New York's Alvin Theatre.
1949 The United Nations grants Libya its independence by 1952.
1967 President Lyndon B. Johnson signs the air quality act, allotting $428 million for the fight against pollution.
1970 U.S. planes conduct widespread bombing raids in North Vietnam.
1985 US Navy intelligence analyst Jonathan Pollard arrested for spying and passing classified information to Israel; he received a life sentence on Nov. 1, 1987.
1986 The Justice Department begins an inquiry into the National Security Council into what will become known as the Iran-Contra scandal.
1995 The Dayton Peace Agreement is initialed at Wright Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio; the agreement, formally ratified in Paris on Dec. 14, ends the three-and-a-half year war between Bosnia and Herzegovina.
2006 Anti-Syrian Lebanese Minister and MP Pierre Gemayel assassinated in Beirut.
1970 U.S. force raids Son Tay prison camp »
1980
November 21
Millions tune in to find out who shot J.R.
On November 21, 1980, 350 million people around the world tune in to television's popular primetime drama "Dallas" to find out who shot J.R. Ewing, the character fans loved to hate. J.R. had been shot on the season-ending episode the previous March 21, which now stands as one of television's most famous cliffhangers. The plot twist inspired widespread media coverage and left America wondering "Who shot J.R.?" for the next eight months. The November 21 episode solved the mystery, identifying Kristin Shepard, J.R.'s wife's sister and his former mistress, as the culprit.
The CBS television network debuted the first five-episode pilot season of "Dallas" in 1978; it went on to run for another 12 full-length seasons. The first show of its kind, "Dallas" was dubbed a "primetime soap opera" for its serial plots and dramatic tales of moral excess. The show revolved around the relations of two Texas oil families: the wealthy, successful Ewing family and the perpetually down-on-their-luck Barnes family. The families' patriarchs, Jock Ewing and Digger Barnes, were former partners locked in a years-long feud over oil fields Barnes claimed had been stolen by Ewing. Ewing's youngest son Bobby (Patrick Duffy) and Barnes' daughter Pam (Victoria Principal) had married, linking the battling clans even more closely. The character of J.R. Ewing, Bobby's oldest brother and a greedy, conniving, womanizing scoundrel, was played by Larry Hagman.
As J.R. had many enemies, audiences were hard-pressed to guess who was responsible for his attempted murder. That summer, the question "Who Shot J.R.?" entered the national lexicon, becoming a popular t-shirt slogan, and heightening anticipation of the soap's third season, which was to air in the fall. After a much-talked-about contract dispute with Hagman was finally settled, the season was delayed because of a Screen Actors Guild strike, much to the dismay of "Dallas" fans. When it finally aired, the episode revealing J.R.'s shooter became one of television's most watched shows, with an audience of 83 million people in the U.S. alone—a full 76 percent of all U.S. televisions on that night were tuned in—and helped put "Dallas" into greater worldwide circulation. It also popularized the use of the cliffhanger by television writers.
The shooting of J.R. wasn't "Dallas'" only notorious plot twist. In September 1986, fans learned that the entire previous season, in which main character Bobby Ewing had died, was merely a dream of Pam's. The show's writers had killed the Bobby character off because Duffy had decided to leave the show. When he agreed to return, they featured him stepping out of the shower on the season-ending cliffhanger, and then were forced the next season to explain his sudden reappearance.
The last premiere episode of "Dallas" aired on May 3, 1991. A spin-off, "Knots Landing," aired from December 27, 1979 until May 13, 1993. "Dallas" remains in syndication around the world.
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Thanks to the Bear. .
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER ….
. rollingthunderremembered.com .
Thanks to Micro
To remind folks that these are from the Vietnam Air Losses site that Micro put together. You click on the url below and get what happened each day to the crew of the aircraft. ……Skip
From Vietnam Air Losses site for . November 21 .
The one on the 21st is very interesting.;….You have to read it
November 21: https://www.vietnamairlosses.com/loss.php?id=2662
This following work accounts for every fixed wing loss of the Vietnam War and you can use it to read more about the losses in The Bear's Daily account. Even better it allows you to add your updated information to the work to update for history…skip Vietnam Air Losses Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at: https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.
This is a list of all Helicopter Pilots Who Died in the Vietnam War . Listed by last name and has other info https://www.vhpa.org/KIA/KIAINDEX.HTM
MOAA - Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Service members Killed in the Vietnam War
The site works, find anyone you knew in "search" feature.
https://www.vvmf.org/Wall-of-Faces/ )
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Thanks to Shadow…another trip down memory lane
BEACON HILL II AND PRARIE III
After re-boarding the Iwo Jima… we sailed again for the PI. We weren't going to be there
long… but it was long enough to have the worst and last drunk of my life… We also
changed ships… going from the Iwo to the USS Princeton.
When we arrived in Subic… the first night we had no liberty… but it was "Poor Richard"
night at the Club… Mixed drinks were a dime and beer was a nickel.
I've come to the conclusion over the years… that for over a decade… the military
actually seemed to encourage alcoholism… No other way to explain the happy hours and
ridiculous prices. I know one year at El Toro, after I became an aviator… we lost as many
pilots to drunken driving… as we did in aircraft accidents.
This night in particular, when we hit the Club… For some un-Godly reason… I reached
into my Geneva Convention Card holder… and pulled out a hundred dollar bill that I kept
there for emergencies… and threw it on the bar… And with the grandest showboating I
could muster… I yelled out, "I want a thousand Stingers… for all my friends"!
There was a mad rush to the bar… and I had a lot of friends in the club that night. Every
time someone would get a drink… they'd buy me one in return… to my ever-lasting
pain… I tried to drink them all… Big Mistake!
By the time the night was over… I was so "Toxson Stinko"… I couldn't even walk. I
tried to climb the hill back to my room and kept falling down. After a while, some Shore
Patrol guys came along… Put me in a jeep and took me to my room. It was the only time
in my life… that when I laid down… the whole room started spinning like a whirly gig at
a county fair.
I thought I was going to fly off the bed from the centrifugal force… I grabbed the edges
of the bed… like you would in one of those spinning cups at the fair… Then… I got sick!
Oh God, did I get sick! I puked and puked and puked…. Then I passed out… mercifully.
The next morning… when I woke up… I couldn't see. I was still drunk… but alarmed
that the world was black. I started yelling for help. Two Filipino workers came in and
took me to the showers… They were talking in Tagalog… but I could make out stink…
and a couple of other words.
They put my head under the shower and started running hot water on my face… slowly,
so slowly… light started to reach my eyes. The reason I couldn't see… was that when I
got sick… I was lying flat on my back… When I puked, it came straight back on my face.
The combination of the alcohol… the pizza I had eaten and the nuts… produced the first
version of "super glue"… it coagulated in my eye sockets… and welded my eyes shut! I
was still too drunk to realize that… until the hot water started melting it away.
It was two weeks before I felt any where near decent, again. It was also the last time I got
"Toxon Stinko"… Never again.
I don't remember much of the PI after that… it was kind of a blur… except for Pat
DeSarno and I renting a T-34 from the Navy Flying Club… and going for a joy ride
around the islands. It was beautiful.
When we went aboard the Princeton… We realized how good we'd had it on the Iwo.
The Princeton was a WW II era carrier… and was damn near as bad as the old ship we
went to Okinawa on. No air conditioning in the troop berthing… and generally a rust
bucket. Seemed like they always purged the boilers when we were up on deck… covering
us in soot.
In the brief we were told this would be the end of the SLF. Once we got ashore… We
would not come back to the ship. Everything would be off-loaded and permanently
transferred to the beach.
We would land three companies north and east and west of Gio Linh. H&S and one line
company would land at Gio Linh itself… and establish the battalion CP. We would also
send a small detachment to Con Thien… which by now was a Special Forces outpost.
After the brief, the XO came up to me and said he was going to Con Thien… then he
asked me… if I wanted to go along. He went on to explain that the Special Forces was
there… and you know those guys live well… "How 'bout it"? The XO and I got along
real well… He was a good guy…. Even though he tried to get me killed at Duc Pho
through his naivety. I said, "Count me in". I think the deference he showed me was
because I was past my rotation date… Technically, I shouldn't even be on the cruise.
The next morning I was called to Westerman's office. Blackjack had me sit down. He
said the XO told him I was going to Con Thien with him… Westerman told me to forget
it… I wasn't going… said it was too dangerous… that my mom would never forgive him
if I got killed this late in the game. I would be back with him… there would be no
discussion about it any more. As I left his office, the XO apologized… said he gave it his
best shot, but the Colonel was adamant. Westerman and I would be ending our tours
together.
That afternoon, I had my last run-in with Donnelly… Don't even remember what it was
about… I just remember being pissed at him… again.
I was helping pack up the Comm Section gear when Pat DeSarno pointed out a small
conex box… it had huge white X's painted on it. "See that"? "That's Donnelly's personal
shit he got in Hong Kong when he went on R&R and leave". "The bastard has it packed
like its official gear… when it's all personal effects". "We've had to cart that shit around
since Okinawa". Donnelly had it listed on the manifest… as communications gear.
When we finally started to vertrep off the Princeton… The move went like clockwork…
except for one small incident. An H-34 was lifting a conex box as an external load… the
container had these large X's on it. As the load was picked up and the helicopter started to
go into transitional lift over the water… either one of the pilots or the crew chief (it was
the crew chief)… evidently thought they were not climbing fast enough… and they
pickled the load… right into the Tonkin Gulf… Now how the fuck you think that
happened? Twenty-five bucks went a long way in 1967.
Five minutes later, I heard that Donnelly was looking for me… but I managed to avoid
him until we went ashore.
Gio Linh
I rode in to Gio Linh with Westerman on the first helicopter. We landed right outside the
Army compound. Inside the compound, the Army had their battery of 175mm "Long
Tom"… super cannons. The biggest mothers in the country. These were awesome guns…
the barrels appeared to be twice the length of our 155mm self-contained gun.
Right after I got out of the helicopter… I looked around and could not believe the number
of craters in the area… Got to hand it to the Doggies… they really prepped the hell out of
the area before moving the big guns up.
We went about setting up the CP… everyone was ashore and things seemed to be getting
off the ground OK. The XO checked in from Con Thien… said he was going to be living
in an air-conditioned conex box… Sorry I wasn't there. He really rubbed it in.
About an hour after we landed… I saw a jeep coming out of the Army compound and
drive in our direction. For some reason he drove right up to me… Inside was an Army
Major… once again… a typical new uniform and a fleshy look. He got out of the jeep
and asked me who was in charge? I told him Colonel Westerman… but he was real busy,
could I help him? The Major looked at me and said, "I want to tell him he should move
this camp about a thousand meters away from here… You see all these craters… Well we
didn't put them here… The gooks have a 152 battery just over the DMZ and this is where
the rounds usually hit". I looked at him and said, "Major… Come this way, I'd like to
introduce you to Colonel Westerman"!
I went up to Blackjack and said, "Colonel, this is the commander of the 175 battery and
he has something to tell you". Westerman seemed irritated… Looked at the major and
said, "What do you want"?
The Major went into his speil about the craters… and opined that we should move a
thousand meters to the west. When he had finished, Westerman looked at him
disdainfully… and said, "Major, when I want the opinion of an Army Officer on how to
run my battalion… I'll ask for it"! With that, he turned away… end of conversation!
I walked the Major back to his jeep… He looked at me and said, "What an asshole".
Considering the circumstances… I couldn't have agreed more. As I watched him drive
away, I once again looked at all the craters… and decided for the first time in almost a
year… I was going to dig a fucking hole in the ground!
Little did I know, I was about to endure the longest night of my life…
More tomorrow… Shadow
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From the archives thanks to Dr.Rich
Victor Belenko who brought us a Mig 25 and what we learned was invaluable
We've known Viktor for many years … can't remember who introduced us, but I know we introduced him to many of y'all … He would come stay (in the cabin above) with us for a few days, maybe go flying, maybe a brief physical to "Check my bad blood….", and always to recount some of his amazing stories … Early on he was in a CIA witness protection-like isolation, so frequently we had no notice he was coming … he'd show up and we'd be in for a great few days!!
One story that hardly anyone has heard involves the 1930 cabin you see in the photo of Viktor with Mia and Murphy, our labs. I had to go to work that day, and Viktor came down to the house and told Sue that the toilet would not flush. She gave him a "plumber's helper", and, a little later, he came back and said "no luck" … So she sent him down to Wilson to the hardware to rent a "snake", figuring that the blockage was somewhere 'downstream' … A little later she called me and said Viktor had removed the toilet, put it in the back of his truck, and was last seen heading down Fish Creek Rd. He came back w. a brand new toilet, matching the one he'd removed .. and still "No luck" …
Well, first, a toilet has to be vented to outside air to allow it to flush, and when folks build cabins in snow country they don't want the vent to get plugged w. snow … so … they attach the vent to the drain pipe from a sink nearby .. with a valve that lets them turn off the vent when not being used … like when we didn't have visitors for awhile!! We all got a good laugh .. and we were able to return the toilet.
Viktor had some amazing stories of his early life in America, when he couldn't speak or understand english … some of which are told below .. many of which are not suitable for mixed company … esp. ones from when he was visiting our fighter squadrons and teaching our pilots how to fight the Russians … a few good tricks were pulled on unsuspecting Viktor.
Some tears of sadness, and remembrance of great patriotism … and humor, at the Sugdens today …
Viktor Belenko, Who Defected to the West in a Jet Fighter, Dies at 76
Among the highest-profile figures to flee the Soviet Union, he brought with him a secret weapon and firsthand experience behind the Iron Curtain.
When the Soviet pilot Viktor Belenko defected to the United States in 1976, he brought his plane with him. George Bush, then the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, called the incident an "intelligence bonanza."Credit...via Paul Schmidt
On a clear late summer day in 1976, a plane popped up on the radar just off the coast of the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. It had been flying a mere 100 feet off the water, low enough to avoid detection. Now, suddenly, it climbed up to 20,000 feet. Clearly, the pilot wanted to be seen.
The aircraft flew toward the southwestern port city of Hakodate. It circled the airport twice, then prepared to land. The plane, identifiable now as a Soviet fighter jet, nearly collided with a 727 airliner as it touched down. It plowed past the end of the tarmac, blew out its front wheel and came to a stop not far from a busy highway.
As ground crews rushed toward it, the plane's canopy opened. A sturdy blond man emerged with a gun and fired two shots in the air to warn onlookers away. When the authorities arrived, he climbed down to meet them.
His name was Lt. Viktor Belenko. He was there to defect, he said, along with his jet, a supersonic interceptor called a MiG-25. The plane had stoked fear among Western militaries for years. Now, thanks to Lieutenant Belenko, they had a pristine specimen to examine. George Bush, then the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, called the incident an "intelligence bonanza."
Lieutenant Belenko, who went on to settle in the United States, died on Sept. 24 at a senior living center near Rosebud, a small town in Southern Illinois. He was 76. His son Paul Schmidt said his death, which was not widely reported at the time, came after a brief illness.
Viktor Belenko was the flower of Communist youth. Born into proletarian poverty, he had worked himself up through the career and party ranks to become a member of the country's elite Air Defense Forces, a separate branch from the Soviet Air Force that was charged with defending the motherland from attack.
But along the way he became disillusioned with the Soviet system. He had been promised material rewards for his hard work; instead, despite his elite status, he felt he was being treated like an expendable cog in a creaking war machine.
He kept his doubts to himself — so much so that in the early 1970s he received the choicest of assignments: to train on the MiG-25, one of the Soviets' newest weapons.
Through the 1950s and '60s, the United States and the Soviet Union had fought a high-altitude arms race, building bigger, faster bombers and reconnaissance aircraft. The United States had the upper hand, given the expanse of territory the Soviets had to defend.
Then, in the early 1970s, American intelligence agencies and their allies detected a new aircraft in the Soviet arsenal: an enormous fighter, capable of flying miles above the earth, several times faster than sound.
An aerial view of Lieutenant Belenko's MiG-25 shortly after he landed it at Hakodate Airport. The plane had stoked fear among Western militaries for years. Credit...The Asahi Shimbun, via Getty Images
The plane, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization called the MiG-25 "Foxbat," had something else: wide wings, suggesting that it was also highly maneuverable. This was the weapon the West had long feared, believing it was capable of taking down supersonic bombers and reconnaissance jets that had, until then, flown through Soviet airspace with impunity.
Now Lieutenant Belenko was going to give them one as a gift.
He had plotted his escape for months, waiting until he and his squadron went on an unarmed training mission over the Sea of Japan, putting him close to freedom and rendering his colleagues unable to stop him.
After he landed, Japanese officials handed Lieutenant Belenko and his plane to the Americans. The plane was dissected and analyzed before being returned, in pieces, to the Soviets, a few weeks later. Lieutenant Belenko received asylum, then flew to the United States to be interviewed.
After Lieutenant Belenko, center, was delivered to American authorities, he received asylum and then flew to the United States to be interviewed.Credit...The Asahi Shimbun, via Getty Images
The MiG-25 turned out to be a paper eagle. Its giant wingspan was not for maneuverability but simply to lift the plane and its 15 tons of fuel off the ground. It couldn't even do its job: Though it flew fast, it was no match for the American aircraft it was meant to take down.
Of great value, though, was what Lieutenant Belenko told the Americans about conditions and morale within the Soviet armed forces.
American officials had long believed that Soviet military personnel were chiseled supermen. Lieutenant Belenko revealed that they were often half-starved and beaten down, forced into cramped living spaces and subject to sadistic punishment at the tiniest infraction.
During a visit to a U.S. aircraft carrier, he was astonished that sailors were allowed unlimited amounts of food, at no cost. He once bought a can of cat food at a grocery store, not knowing it was for pets; when someone pointed out his error, he shrugged and said it still tasted better than the food sold for human consumption in the Soviet Union.
And he was astounded to learn about the inadequacies of his aircraft's inner workings, which, despite his elite status, he had never been allowed to see.
"If my regiment could see five minutes of what I saw today," he told a companion, "there would be a revolution."
Viktor Ivanovich Belenko was born on Feb. 15, 1947, in Nalchik, a Russian city in the foothills of the Caucasus Mountains.
His father worked in a factory, his mother on a farm. Even by Soviet standards, they had very little money. But Viktor applied himself to his studies and to his Communist Party activities, becoming a member of the Young Pioneers, a youth group that trained future party members.
He had little idea about life in America, except that it had to be better than what he encountered in the Soviet Union.
"I have been longing for freedom in the United States," the Japanese police quoted him saying. "Life in the Soviet Union has not changed from that existing in the days of Czarist Russia, where there had been no freedom."
Congress passed an act in 1980 to give Mr. Belenko citizenship. Eager to escape attention, he took the surname Schmidt and moved around often, mostly living in small towns across the Midwest. He worked as a consultant to aerospace companies and government agencies. His marriage to Coral Garaas ended in divorce. Along with his son Paul Schmidt, Mr. Belenko is survived by another son, Tom Schmidt, and four grandchildren. Though some reports said he had left a wife and child behind in the Soviet Union, Mr. Belenko told his son that this was untrue and the result of Soviet propaganda.
After the Cold War ended, he began to make occasional appearances at air shows and returned to calling himself Viktor Belenko. But he never sought to capitalize on his moment of international fame.
"He lived the most private life," his son Paul said. "He flew under the radar, literally and figuratively."
Clay Risen is an obituaries reporter for The Times. Previously, he was a senior editor on the Politics desk and a deputy op-ed editor on the Opinion desk. He is the author, most recently, of "American Rye: A Guide to the Nation's Original Spirit." More about Clay Risen
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/18/world/europe/viktor-belenko-dead.html
MORE - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Belenko
I hope all the photos and link come through …
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Thanks to 1440
Landmines in Ukraine
President Joe Biden announced yesterday the US will send antipersonnel landmines to Ukraine, reversing a ban in place since 2022. Officials suggested the devices will shore up Ukraine's defenses against Russia's deployment of small squads across its lines; rights groups say the mines will endanger civilians.
More than 160 countries are signatories to the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning the mines designed to detonate on contact. Russia and the US are not party to the treaty, with Russia deploying mines since the start of the conflict. Ukraine—a signatory—manufactures them. The US-supplied mines are reportedly nonpersistent, designed to self-deactivate after a set period. Analysts estimate that since the war began, 20% of Ukraine's territory has become contaminated by mines.
Separately, the US closed its embassy in Kyiv yesterday amid tips of a possible air attack following the launch of short-range US-made ballistic missiles into Russia; the embassies of several European countries have followed suit.
Bomb Cyclone Hits Northwest
Two people have died in Seattle, as a bomb cyclone impacts the Pacific Northwest. Nearly 600,000 customers have lost power.
A bomb cyclone occurs when a storm system undergoes bombogenesis, with its central pressure dropping rapidly within 24 hours. This particular storm system has been fueled by an atmospheric river, a band of moisture in the sky with water vapor levels comparable to average flow levels at the mouth of the Mississippi River. The resulting weather system has unleashed hurricane-level winds in parts of Oregon and Canada, with Vancouver Island witnessing winds as high as 101 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 storm.
Heavy winds, rain, and snow are expected to continue impacting the region in the coming days. A separate storm is due to hit the Northwest tomorrow as the current storm moves east. .
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Thanks to Brett……Interesting note about the rest of the world
Geopolitical Futures:
Keeping the future in focus
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Daily Memo: Trump and the Elusive Middle Eastern Balance of Power
By Kamran Bokhari
Nov 21, 2024
Much of the public discussion about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's forthcoming strategy for the Middle East, especially in light of the nominees to his national security team, is binary. In this oversimplified view, which reduces the complexities of the region into a struggle for supremacy between Israel and Iran, Trump is expected to strongly support the Israeli government and get tough on the Iranian regime. However, the second Trump administration's attempts to deal with the extraordinary scale of conflict in the region and end the United States' "forever wars" must also take into account the Middle East's present imbalance of power. To this end, the U.S. will have to deal simultaneously with the Israelis, the Iranians, the Saudis and the Turks.
The first stirrings of what will be a complex diplomatic process are already evident from the negotiations for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Obviously, these efforts are being led by the Biden White House, but not without the critical influence of Trump's transition team. Likewise, tech billionaire and close Trump associate Elon Musk reportedly met with the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations to discuss ways to deescalate tensions from their dangerously high level. The Iranians denied that such a meeting occurred, but they did so only several days after the initial report, while expressing a keen interest in negotiating with the incoming U.S. administration.
Perhaps the most intriguing recent development from Tehran is the regime's shifting position on the 2015 nuclear deal, which was nixed by Trump during his first term. Thus far, the Iranians had been pressing – albeit unsuccessfully – for a return to a similar arrangement. But in a Nov. 14 interview on state television, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the defunct nuclear agreement could serve only as a reference and that it had lost its previous significance. Any new deal must be "feasible," he added.
The U.S. position for some time has been that the nuclear deal is dead. Although Joe Biden was serving as Barack Obama's vice president when the agreement was concluded, he was reluctant to revive it as president. That Tehran is now assuming the same stance, however, is a function of its deteriorating position in the conflict with Israel, especially the massive losses suffered by its premier proxy, Hezbollah. The Iranians know that the incoming Trump administration will seek to force them not only to accept stricter limits on their nuclear program but also to desist from using militant proxies to destabilize the Middle East.
Iran realizes that its ability to exert influence has peaked. In addition, Israel's Oct. 26 strikes exposed the weakness of Iran's conventional military capabilities. Therefore, Tehran is likely ready for a broader negotiation with the U.S. regarding not only the nuclear issue but also its regional assets. From Tehran's point of view, it may be better to negotiate now and preserve some of its regional influence before it shrinks further amid greater pressure from the Trump administration.
With regard to its nuclear program, Iran will continue to use it as leverage to try to gain respite from sanctions. This is the foremost imperative of the Islamic Republic, which has experienced significant reversals on the foreign policy front and needs financial relief to carry it through its historic and imminent political evolution. Besides, the nuclear issue is less important to the Iranian regime than preserving its regional influence – which will frustrate the Trump strategy for the region.
The central focus of the incoming administration's approach to the Middle East will be to advance the 2020 Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalize relations with Israel. Missing from the accords is the region's leading Arab nation, Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration continued its predecessor's efforts to bring the Saudis on board – and made considerable headway – until it was torpedoed by the Iran-supported Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the subsequent regional conflict.
Differences in Israeli and Saudi imperatives, especially regarding the Palestinians, will test the diplomatic acumen of the Trump White House. Though a cease-fire in Lebanon could come in the next few months, a cease-fire in Gaza will take much longer. Israeli forces have considerably weakened Hamas, but they have yet to prove to themselves that the group will not reanimate as soon as they leave. Therefore, Israeli troops are likely to remain in Gaza for some time, exacerbating the humanitarian disaster in the strip. Under these circumstances, it will be terribly difficult for the Saudi kingdom to normalize ties with Israel, but Riyadh is hoping that the influence it enjoys with Trump and Israel's desire to establish relations with the kingdom will enable it to steer the situation in Gaza toward recovery.
Normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel could help to counter Iran's regional ambitions. However, considering the significant obstacles to such a deal, the Trump team appears to want to deal with Iran separately. Obviously, problems with either of these two diplomatic tracks could bring the whole thing down.
As if this were not complicated enough, Turkey, which has been on the sidelines for much of the current crisis, is hoping to benefit from the weakening of Iran. It is also hoping that Trump's return to the White House will bring better relations between Ankara and Washington. As Washington works to bring the Saudis and the Israelis closer and at the same time deal with the Iranians one-on-one, it also will need to factor in the Turks as a stakeholder in the region. Achieving a four-way balance of power, though not impossible, will be excruciatingly challenging.
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This Day in U S Military History
November 21
1860 – The notorious hired killer Tom Horn is born on this day in 1860, in Memphis, Missouri. "Killing is my specialty," Horn reportedly once said. "I look at it as a business proposition, and I think I have a corner on the market." Horn was raised on a farm, and like many young farm boys, Horn loved to roam the woods with his dog and rifle, hunting for game and practicing his marksmanship. He was an unusually skilled rifleman, an ability that may have later encouraged him to gravitate towards a career as a professional killer. That his father was a violent man, who severely beat his son, might also explain how Horn came to be such a remorseless killer. However, the young Horn did not immediately begin his adult life as a professional murderer. Fleeing his home in Memphis after a particularly savage beating from his father, the 14-year-old boy first worked as a teamster in Santa Fe, New Mexico, where he demonstrated a quick intelligence and learned Spanish. Horn's packing and language skills later won him a job with the U.S. Army, where he served as an interpreter with the Apache Indians, learned to be a skilled scout and tracker, and tracked the cunning movements of the famous Apache warrior Geronimo. Ironically, Horn's career as a hired gunman began legitimately when he signed up with the well-known Chicago-based Pinkerton Detective Agency, which supplied agents to serve as armed guards and private police forces. Though Pinkerton detectives generally stopped short of carrying out actual murders, they were sometimes called on to fight gun battles with everyone from striking miners to train robbers. Horn's four-year stint with the Pinkertons doubtlessly impressed his next employer, the giant Wyoming ranching operation, Swan Land and Cattle Company. Swan and other big ranches funded Horn's reign of terror in Wyoming, where he assassinated many supposed rustlers and other troublemakers. To take only one example, a Wyoming homesteader named William Lewis had stubbornly claimed his right to farm on what had previously been open range for cattle. He openly bragged about stealing and eating the cattle he found there. The big ranchers warned Lewis to leave the territory, but he refused to back down. In August 1895, he was shot to death with three bullets fired from a distance of at least 300 yards. Few doubted that the sharpshooting Horn killed Lewis. Horn's reign of terror ended in 1903, when he was hanged for killing a 14-year-old boy.
1943 – On Tarawa Atoll, more American troops (of the 2nd Marine Divison) land on Betio Island. There are heavy casualties initially. However, by noon some progress is being made in successfully landing more troops. Other American units land on Bairiki Island. On Makin Atoll, elements of the US 27th Infantry Division begin to advance on Butaritari Island.
1944 – On Leyte, the US 32nd Division, advancing from the north coast, is held in the Ormoc Valley by Japanese forces. US 7th Division begins attacks north from Baybay toward Ormoc.
1944 – Northeast of Formosa, the US submarine Sealion sinks the Japanese battleship Kongo and a destroyer.
1944 – US 1st and 9th Armies meet firm resistance from German forces west of the Roer River. The US 3rd Army continues the siege of Metz while other elements gain ground near Saarebourg. Metz has never been taken by siege.1945- The last residents of the US Japanese-American internment left their camps.
1950 – The 17th Infantry Regiment of the 7th Infantry Division reached the Yalu River near its source at Hyesanjin, "Ghost City of Broken Bridges." This was the northernmost progress achieved by any U.S. unit operating in the east under X Corps.
1970 – A combined Air Force and Army team of 40 Americans–led by Army Colonel "Bull" Simons–conducts a raid on the Son Tay prison camp, 23 miles west of Hanoi, in an attempt to free between 70 and 100 Americans suspected of being held there. Planning for the mission–code-named Operation Ivory Coast–began in June 1970. The plan called for Army Rangers to be flown to Son Tay by helicopter and crash-land inside the compound. The plan was for Rangers to pour out of the helicopter and neutralize any opposition while Rangers in other helicopters, landing outside the walls, would break in and complete the rescue operation. At 11:30 p.m. on November 20, the raiding force departed Takhli Royal Thai Air Force Base in Thailand. As the force approached the camp, U.S. Air Force and Navy warplanes struck North Vietnamese troop installations and antiaircraft sites in the area. Part of the force initially landed at the wrong compound, but otherwise the mission came off without a hitch. Unfortunately, the Rangers could not locate any prisoners in the huts. After a sharp firefight with the North Vietnamese troops in the area, the order was given to withdraw–27 minutes after the raid began, the force was in the air headed back to Thailand. The raid was accomplished in a superb manner and all Americans returned safely, but it was learned later that the prisoners had been moved elsewhere in July. Despite that disappointment, the raid was a tactical success and sent a message to the North Vietnamese that the United States was capable of inserting a combat force undetected only miles from their capital. Stunned by the raid, high Hanoi officials ordered all U.S. POWs moved to several central prison complexes. This was actually a welcome change-the move afforded the prisoners more contact with each other and boosted their morale.
Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day
*HAWKINS, WILLIAM DEAN
Rank and organization: First Lieutenant, U.S. Marine Corps. Born: 19 .April 1914, Fort Scott, Kans. Appointed from: El Paso, Tex. Citation: For valorous and gallant conduct above and beyond the call of duty as commanding officer of a Scout Sniper Platoon attached to the Assault Regiment in action against Japanese-held Tarawa in the Gilbert Island, 20 and 21 November 1943. The first to disembark from the jeep lighter, 1st Lt. Hawkins unhesitatingly moved forward under heavy enemy fire at the end of the Betio Pier, neutralizing emplacements in coverage of troops assaulting the main beach positions. Fearlessly leading his men on to join the forces fighting desperately to gain a beachhead, he repeatedly risked his life throughout the day and night to direct and lead attacks on pillboxes and installations with grenades and demolitions. At dawn on the following day, 1st Lt. Hawkins resumed the dangerous mission of clearing the limited beachhead of Japanese resistance, personally initiating an assault on a hostile position fortified by S enemy machineguns, and, crawling forward in the face of withering fire, boldly fired pointblank into the loopholes and completed the destruction with grenades. Refusing to withdraw after being seriously wounded in the chest during this skirmish, 1st Lt. Hawkins steadfastly carried the fight to the enemy, destroying 3 more pillboxes before he was caught in a burst of Japanese shellfire and mortally wounded. His relentless fighting spirit in the face of formidable opposition and his exceptionally daring tactics served as an inspiration to his comrades during the most crucial phase of the battle and reflect the highest credit upon the U.S. Naval Service. He gallantly gave his life for his country.
*MINICK, JOHN W.
Rank and organization: Staff Sergeant, U.S. Army, Company I, 121st Infantry, 8th Infantry Division. Place and date: Near Hurtgen, Germany, 21 November 1944. Entered service at: Carlisle, Pa. Birth: Wall, Pa. Citation: He displayed conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his own life, above and beyond the call of duty, in action involving actual conflict with the enemy on 21 November 1944, near Hurtgen, Germany. S/Sgt. Minick's battalion was halted in its advance by extensive minefields, exposing troops to heavy concentrations of enemy artillery and mortar fire. Further delay in the advance would result in numerous casualties and a movement through the minefield was essential. Voluntarily, S/Sgt. Minick led 4 men through hazardous barbed wire and debris, finally making his way through the minefield for a distance of 300 yards. When an enemy machinegun opened fire, he signaled his men to take covered positions, edged his way alone toward the flank of the weapon and opened fire, killing 2 members of the guncrew and capturing 3 others. Moving forward again, he encountered and engaged single-handedly an entire company killing 20 Germans and capturing 20, and enabling his platoon to capture the remainder of the hostile group. Again moving ahead and spearheading his battalion's advance, he again encountered machinegun fire. Crawling forward toward the weapon, he reached a point from which he knocked the weapon out of action. Still another minefield had to be crossed. Undeterred, S/Sgt. Minick advanced forward alone through constant enemy fire and while thus moving, detonated a mine and was instantly killed.
CARPENTER, WILLIAM KYLE
Rank and Organization: Lance Corporal, U.S. Marine Corps, Company F, 2d Battalion, 9th Marines. Place and Date: November 21, 2010, Marjah District, Helmand Province, Afghanistan. Entered Service At: Columbia, SC. Born: 17 October, 1989, Flowood, MS. Departed: No. Entered Service At: Columbia, SC. G.O. Number: . Date of Issue: 06/19/2014. Accredited To: South Carolina. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving as an Automatic Rifleman with Company F, 2d Battalion, 9th Marines, Regimental Combat Team 1, 1st Marine Division (Forward), 1 Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), in Helmand Province, Afghanistan in support of Operation Enduring Freedom on 21 November 2010. Lance Corporal Carpenter was a member of a platoon-sized coalition force, comprised of two reinforced Marine squads partnered with an Afghan National Army squad. The platoon had established Patrol Base Dakota two days earlier in a small village in the Marjah District in order to disrupt enemy activity and provide security for the local Afghan population. Lance Corporal Carpenter and a fellow Marine were manning a rooftop security position on the perimeter of Patrol Base Dakota when the enemy initiated a daylight attack with hand grenades, one of which landed inside their sandbagged position. Without hesitation, and with complete disregard for his own safety, Lance Corporal Carpenter moved toward the grenade in an attempt to shield his fellow Marine from the deadly blast. When the grenade detonated, his body absorbed the brunt of the blast, severely wounding him, but saving the life of his fellow Marine. By his undaunted courage, bold fighting spirit, and unwavering devotion to duty in the face of almost certain death, Lance Corporal Carpenter reflected great credit upon himself and upheld the highest traditions of the Marine Corps and the United States Naval Service.
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AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for November 21, FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY
21 November
1917: The Navy's R-9 robot bomber, a flying bomb, demonstrated to Army, Navy, and civilian aviation experts at Amityville, N.Y.
1957: The DoD announced that the first ICBM base would be built at Francis E. Warren AFB. (6)
1961: The USAF launched Midas IV, a heat-sensing satellite designed to detect missile launchings, from Point Arguello into a 2,100-mile circular orbit. As a part of the controversial Project West Force, the satellite ejected a package of several million copper wires to form a reflecting belt in space to aid radio communications. These wires failed to disperse as planned. USAF crewmembers fired their first Titan when the 6555th Aerospace Test Wing launched a test missile on a 5,000-mile flight from Cape Canaveral. (16) (24)
1962: Operation LONG SKIP. After an initial airlift effort from 2-14 November, USAFE dispatched C-130s to India to assist MATS in this operation. LONG SKIP continued through August 1963. The airlifters carried 20,000 passengers and troops, along with 25,000 tons of supplies and equipment to the area. The timely response led the Chinese to withdraw. (2)
1969: A Thor-Delta rocket pushed a Skynet communications satellite for the UK into orbit. The Air Force's Space and Missile Systems Organization developed the satellite for the British government. (16)
1970: SON TAY RAID. A special USAF and Army task force volunteers tried to rescue American servicemen from the Son Tay prisoner-of-war camp 20 miles west of Hanoi. Brig Gen Leroy J. Manor commanded the operation, while Col Arthur D. Simons (Army) led the search-and rescue team. Unfortunately, the prisoners had been moved elsewhere. (2) (21)
1980: As a fire swept through the MGM Grand Hotel in Las Vegas, the 20 SOS, 302 SOS, and Det 1 of the 57th Fighter Weapons Wing flew their helicopters to rescue 310 people. The fire killed 84 people and injured another 679. (26)
1994: Air Force and NATO aircraft bombed Serb targets to retaliate for a Serbian attack on Bihac. The raid was the largest NATO operation to date. (16) (26) Project SAPPHIRE. Through 23 November, three C-5s from the 436 AW carried nuclear technicians, equipment, and 1,300 pounds of highly enriched uranium from Kazakhstan to Dover AFB to protect the nuclear material from terrorists, smugglers, and unfriendly governments. The US convoyed the material to Oak Ridge, Tenn., for conversion into commercial nuclear fuel. (16) (18)
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