To All,
Good Saturday morning January 14, 2023.
I hope that you all have a great weekend.
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This day in Naval and Marine Corps History
January. 14
1863—Navy General Order 4, signed by Secretary of the Navy Gideon Welles, announces the Emancipation Proclamation by President Abraham Lincoln, which is signed on Jan. 1, 1863.
1943—USS Gudgeon (SS 211) lands six men, 2,000 pounds of equipment, and supplies on Negros Island, Philippines, during the first resupply mission for a submarine.
1944—Five Navy submarines sink five different Japanese vessels in and around the Pacific Ocean. USS Albacore (SS 218) sinks Japanese destroyer Sazanami 300 miles off Yap; USS Scamp (SS 277) sinks the tanker Nippon Maru off Sorol Island; USS Guardfish (SS 217) sinks tanker Kenyo Maru southeast of Palau; USS Seawolf (SS 197) sinks tanker Yamazuru Maru off Okinawa; and USS Swordfish (SS 193) sinks transport Yamakuni Maru off Hachijo Jima.
1945—USS Cobia (SS 245) sinks the Japanese minelayer Yurijima off the east coast of Malaya.
2006—Amphibious transport dock USS San Antonio (LPD 17) is commissioned at Naval Station Ingleside, TX. It is the first ship to be named after the city of San Antonio and the lead ship of its class of amphibious transport docks.
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Today in History January 14
1236 Henry III marries Eleanor of Provence.
1526 Francis of France, held captive by Charles V for a year, signs the Treaty of Madrid, giving up most of his claims in France and Italy.
1797 Napoleon Bonaparte defeats the Austrians at Rivoli in northern Italy.
1858 Emperor Napoleon and Empress Eugenie escape unhurt after an Italian assassin throws a bomb at their carriage as they travel to the Paris Opera.
1864 Confederate President Jefferson Davis writes to General Joseph E. Johnson, observing that troops may need to be sent to Alabama or Mississippi.
1911 The USS Arkansas, the largest U.S. battleship, is launched from the yards of the New York Shipbuilding Company.
1915 The French abandon five miles of trenches to the Germans near Soissons.
1916 British authorities seize German attaché Franz von Papen's financial records confirming espionage activities in the U.S.
1917 A Provisional Parliament is established in Poland.
1920 Berlin is placed under martial law as 40,000 radicals rush the Reichstag; 42 are dead and 105 are wounded.
1942 President Franklin D. Roosevelt orders all aliens in the U.S. to register with the government.
1943 Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Charles DeGaulle meet at Casablanca to discuss the direction of the war.
1943 Italian occupation authorities refuse to deport Jews living in their territories in France.
1969 A blast on the U.S. carrier Enterprise in the Pacific results in 24 dead and 85 injured.
1980 The United Nations votes 104-18 to deplore the Soviet aggression in Afghanistan.
2000 UN tribunal sentences 5 Bosnian Croats to prison for up to 25 years; they were charged with killing some 100 Muslims in a Bosnian village in 1993.
2004 The Republic of Georgia restores the "five cross flag" as its national flag after some 500 years of disuse.
2005 Huygens probe lands on Saturn's moon Titan.
2010 Yemen declares war on al-Qaeda terrorist group.
2011 Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, former president of Tunisia, flees to Saudi Arabia after a series of demonstrations against his regime.
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ROLLING THUNDER REMEMBERED Thanks to the Bear
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…
Skip… For The List for Saturday, 14 January 2023… Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…
From the archives of rollingthunderremembered.com post for 14 January !968… Dark days ahead…
This following work accounts for every fixed wing loss of the Vietnam War and you can use it to read more about the losses in The Bear's Daily account. Even better it allows you to add your updated information to the work to update for history…skip
Vietnam Air Losses
Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at: https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.
This is a list of all Helicopter Pilots Who Died in the Vietnam War . Listed by last name and has other info https://www.vhpa.org/KIA/KIAINDEX.HTM
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Thanks to Bob
Life In 79 Seconds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-A4LzA08po
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Thanks to Carl
The reason they did it is pretty simple. Money.
Oh, So That's What Moderna Forgot to Tell Us About Their COVID Vaccine
Matt Vespa January 12, 2023 8:45 PM
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A bit of US History
1784 Continental Congress ratifies the Treaty of Paris, ending the American Revolution
On January 14, 1784, the Continental Congress ratifies the Treaty of Paris, ending the War for Independence. In the document, which was known as the Second Treaty of Paris because the Treaty of Paris was also the name of the agreement that had ended the Seven Years' War in 1763, Britain... read more
1969 Explosion rocks USS Enterprise
1875 Albert Schweitzer born
1954 Marilyn Monroe marries Joe DiMaggio
1970 Diana Ross and the Supremes perform their final concert
1639 The first colonial constitution
1920 Dodge co-founder dies
1973 Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl VII to cap NFL's only perfect season
1942 FDR orders "enemy aliens" to register
1943 FDR becomes first president to travel by airplane on U.S. official business
1980 Gold prices soar
1963 George Wallace inaugurated as Alabama governor
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From the Archives
Thanks to Dutch and Marathon and to Cowboy who found the URL so it would fit in the List
Sex Lives of the Golden Girls
Too funny not to pass on
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkPQalSoZiE
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Thanks to Dutch
Israel's battle for the Golan Heights ...
How did 100 Israeli tanks beat the entire Syrian Army
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Okhd_ijkI6k
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So that we do not forget…..If you have not read" Bloody Sixteen" you need to read about USS Oriskany in Vietnam.
Thanks to Brown Bear
We were young once . . .
12 January 1968 . . . 52 years ago! The USS Oriskany, with Air Wing SIXTEEN embarked, departed Yankee Station and Operation Rolling Thunder. It was a bittersweet "goodbye!" We had just lost our 93rd aircraft, and almost our 74th pilot when Magic Stone Denny Weichmann was hit on a final "routine" Steel Tiger mission into Laos. He nursed his burning Skyhawk across Vietnam and stayed with it long enough to get within range of rescue forces. Denny barely made it back to Oriskany as we steamed northeast off Yankee towards Yokosuka . . . and the way home.
Operation Rolling Thunder had been a really tough show for the "O" Boat. Between 2 March '65 and 12 January '68, Air Wing SIXTEEN had 242 aircraft hit by enemy fire. 62 were lost; 29 A-4 Skyhawks, 23 F-8 Crusaders, 9 A-1 Skyraiders, and 1 A-3 Skywarrior. Of our 180 aircraft that suffered battle damage but recovered safely; 91 were A-4s, 50 F-8s, 38 A-Ds, and 1 A-3. We also suffered 31 operational losses; 13 A-4s, 8 F-8s, 5 A-Ds, 3 UH-2s, 1 A-3, and 1 E-1. After one particular bad day, one of our leaders (believe it was Old Salt ONE Bryon Compton) was heard to say, "If this keeps up, we'll rotate this whole damn Air Wing!" In fact, we did just that! Our designated combat squadrons had a authorized manning level of 72 pilots. We had lost 56 brave souls killed in combat, and as we sailed away from Yankee Station and Rolling Thunder, we left behind 12 POWs and 5 MIAs.
Thirty years later, I flew over North Vietnam again. That time with my Hungarian Bride in a chartered brand new Boeing 777, with British pilots and Chinese crew, enroute to an assignment in Bangkok. From 37,000 feet, the Hanoi mid-afternoon weather looked much the same, broken clouds and haze. However, there was a high cirrus layer; and, as I stared out the first class cabin window, I saw the faces of KIA roommates Norm Levy and Ed Van Orden, and there was wingman Bill McWilliams, 3 of the 73 we had left behind on Yankee in '68. Gone and totally forgotten by the America they died for, but not by those of us who led them into the fight or fought on their wings, and certainly not by the loving God who called them to His paradise. Tears were running down my cheeks and the cute Chinese Stew with the bottle in her hand was apologizing, "Sorry, Sir, is our champagne that bad?"
Hal Moore said it best: "Were young once . . ."
Very Respectfully,
Brown Bear aka Dick Schaffert
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Thanks to Glenn
director John Ford's award winning: December 7th
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo7Z9css0Jg
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This Day in U S Military History January 14
1861 – Union troops garrison Fort Taylor in Key West, Florida. In reaction to Florida's secession, Capt. John Brannon occupied the fort, placing it in Union hands. Key West was an important outpost for the Union because numerous blockade-running ships were detained at Key West harbor and guarded by Fort Taylor's cannons. The 10-inch Rodman and Columbiad cannons at the fort had a range of three miles. This was an impressive deterrent to the Confederate navy, preventing them from attempting to take the fort or the island of Key West. Proving to be a severe loss for the South, Fort Taylor remained in Union hands throughout the Civil War. By the time the three-story fort was finally finished in 1866 (21 years after it was begun), there were many impressive features included. Items such as sanitary facilities flushed by the tide and a desalination plant which produced drinking water from the sea were available as early as 1861. A total of 198 guns and a large supply of ammunition were on hand to secure the fort.
1911 – The USS Arkansas, the largest U.S. battleship, is launched from the yards of the New York Shipbuilding Company. A 26,000 ton Wyoming class battleship, she was built at Camden, New Jersey. Commissioned in September 1912, she spent her first seven years of service with the Atlantic Fleet. In 1913, Arkansas cruised in the Mediterranean, and in 1914 she participated in the U.S. intervention in Mexico. During July-December 1918, she operated with the British Grand Fleet as World War I approached and reached its conclusion. Transiting the Panama Canal in July 1919, Arkansas joined the Pacific Fleet, remaining there for two years before returning to the Atlantic. She carried Naval Academy midshipmen on cruises to Europe in 1923 and 1924, and to the west coast in 1925. After the latter voyage, the battleship underwent extensive modernization, receiving new oil-fired boilers, additional deck armor and a changed appearance, with only one smokestack and "basket" mast in place of the previous two of each. Through the next two decades, Arkansas primarily served in the Atlantic area, making annual Midshipmen's cruises to Europe in 1929-31 and 1934-37. In 1932-34, she operated along the west coast on training operations, a mission that largely occupied her through the 1930s. After war broke out in Europe in 1939, Arkansas continued her training duties, and, as relations with Germany deteriorated, took part in "operations short of war". In the summer of 1941, she escorted occupation forces to Iceland and was present when President Roosevelt met Prime Minister Churchill at the Atlantic Charter Conference. Once the United States formally entered the war in December 1941, Arkansas was employed escorting Atlantic convoys, as well as continuing her training work. An overhaul in March-June 1942 again changed her appearance, with a new tripod foremast replacing the previous "basket" type. Her combat experience began in June 1944, when she used her twelve-inch guns to support the Normandy invasion and in bombardments of German defenses at Cherbourg. In August, she participated in the invasion of Southern France. Arkansas went to the Pacific in November 1944 and crossed the ocean to the war zone early in the next year. In February-May 1945, she supported the conquests of Iwo Jima and Okinawa. Once Japan had surrended, she transported veterans home from bases in the Pacific. By now thoroughly obsolete, the old battleship was assigned a final mission, to serve as a target ship for atomic bomb tests at Bikini, in the Marshalls. She survived the initial test, an air-burst, but was anchored in close proximity to the bomb used in the 25 July 1946 underwater shot. Arkansas was engulfed in the column of water driven up by the powerful blast and quickly sank. She remains on the bottom of Bikini Atoll to this day.
1945 – The US 1st Army achieves an advance 2 miles toward St. Vith in continuing attacks. British forces attacking southward from Laroche link up with elements of US 3rd Army advancing northwest from Bastogne
1945 – The US 8th Air Force resumes strategic operations after a month-long pause caused by the Battle of the Bulge. Some 600 B-17 and B-24 bombers strike oil targets and encounter heavy resistance from Luftwaffe fighters.
1968 – U.S. joint-service Operation Niagara is launched to support the U.S. Marine base at Khe Sanh. The Khe Sanh base was the westernmost anchor of a series of combat bases and strongholds that stretched from the Cua Viet River on the coast of the South China Sea westward along Route 9 to the Laotian border. Intelligence sources revealed that the North Vietnamese Army was beginning to build up its forces in the area surrounding Khe Sanh. Operation Niagara was a joint U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps air campaign launched in support of the marines manning the base. Using sensors installed along the nearby DMZ and reconnaissance flights to pinpoint targets, 24,000 tactical fighter-bomber sorties and 2,700 B-52 strategic bomber sorties were flown between the start of the operation and March 31, 1968, when it was terminated. This airpower played a major role in the successful defense of Khe Sanh when it came under attack on January 21 and was subsequently besieged for 66 days until finally broken on April 7.
1969 – 25 crew members of the U.S. aircraft carrier Enterprise were killed and 85 injured in an explosion that ripped through the ship off Hawaii.
2005 – The Huygens probe lands on Saturn's moon Titan near the Xanadu region. This was the first landing ever accomplished in the outer solar system. It touched down on land, although the possibility that it would touch down in an ocean was also taken into account in its design. The probe was designed to gather data for a few hours in the atmosphere, and possibly a short time at the surface. It continued to send data for about 90 minutes after touchdown. It remains the most distant landing of any man-made craft.
Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day
ANDERSON, EVERETT W.
Rank and organization: Sergeant, Company M, 15th Pennsylvania Cavalry. Place and date: At Crosbys Creek, Tenn., 14 January 1864. Entered service at: Philadelphia, Pa. Birth: Louisiana. Date of issue: 3 December 1894. Citation: Captured, single-handed, Confederate Brig. Gen. Robert B. Vance during a charge upon the enemy.
ELISE, WILLIAM
Rank and organization: First Sergeant, Company K, 3d Wisconsin Cavalry. Place and date: At, Ark., 14 January 1865. Entered service at: Little Rock, Ark. Birth: England. Date of issue: 8 March 1865. Citation: Remained at his post after receiving three wounds, and only retired, by his commanding officer's orders, after being wounded the fourth time.
HOWARD, SQUIRE E.
Rank and organization: First Sergeant, Company H, 8th Vermont Infantry. Place and date: At Bayou Teche, La., 14 January 1863. Entered service at: Townshend, Vt. Birth: Jamaica, Vt. Date of issue: 29 January 1894. Citation: Voluntarily carried an important message through the heavy fire of the enemy to bring aid and save the gunboat Calhoun.
PALMER, WILLIAM J.
Rank and organization. Colonel, 15th Pennsylvania Cavalry. Place and date: At Red Hill, Ala., 14 January 1865. Entered service at. Philadelphia, Pa. Born. 16 September 1836, Leipsic, Kent County, Del. Date of issue. 24 February 1894. Citation: With less than 200 men, attacked and defeated a superior force of the enemy, capturing their fieldpiece and about 100 prisoners without losing a man.
*WARREN, JOHN E., JR.
Rank and organization: First Lieutenant, U.S. Army, Company C, 2d Battalion, (Mechanized), 22d Infantry, 25th Infantry Division. Place and date: Tay Ninh Province, Republic of Vietnam, 14 January 1969. Entered service at: New York, N.Y . Born: 16 November 1946, Brooklyn, N.Y. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity in action at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty. 1st Lt. Warren, distinguished himself at the cost of his life while serving as a platoon leader with Company C. While moving through a rubber plantation to reinforce another friendly unit, Company C came under intense fire from a well-fortified enemy force. Disregarding his safety, 1st Lt. Warren with several of his men began maneuvering through the hail of enemy fire toward the hostile positions. When he had come to within 6 feet of one of the enemy bunkers and was preparing to toss a hand grenade into it, an enemy grenade was suddenly thrown into the middle of his small group. Thinking only of his men, 1st Lt. Warren fell in the direction of the grenade, thus shielding those around him from the blast. His action, performed at the cost of his life, saved 3 men from serious or mortal injury. First Lt. Warren's ultimate action of sacrifice to save the lives of his men was in keeping with the highest traditions of the military service and reflects great credit on him, his unit, and the U.S. Army.
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AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for January 14, 2021 FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY
14 January
1943: The Casablanca Conference opened, where plans for a combined bomber offensive against Germany were established. Lt Gen Ira C. Eaker promoted a daylight-bombing offensive for U. S. forces. (5) (21)
1945: B-29s based in China bombed an enemy airfield on Formosa, while 54 Superfortresses hit the important airfield at Kagi. (24)
1957: The USAF signed a $74 million contract on the F-102A Delta Dagger supersonic all-weather jet. (4)
1960: In Florida, Eglin AFB conducted the first test launch of a rocket-borne transmitter. (6)
1961: Maj William R. Payne flew a 43rd Bombardment Wing B-58 Hustler from Carswell AFB, Tex., in a flight that broke three records. Over a 1,000-kilometer course without a payload and with payloads of 1,000 and 2,000 kilograms, the B-58 averaged 1,284.73 miles per hour. Major Payne later won the Thompson Trophy, an annual award for supremacy in closed circuit flying. (1)
1977: The Department of Defense directed the Air Force to begin full-scale production of the Air Launched Cruise Missile. (6)
1999: The National Air and Space Administration delayed the first X-33 flight for 18 months, following the failure of its liquid hydrogen tank. This action basically ended the development of the single-stage-to-orbit X-33 project at Edwards AFB, Calif., as a Space Shuttle replacement. (3)
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Thanks to Brett
STRATFOR SNIPPETS
U.K., Ukraine: London Considering Supplying Challenger 2 Main Battle Tank to Ukraine
What Happened: Discussions have been taking place "for a few weeks" about delivering the British army's Challenger 2 main battle tank to Ukraine, Reuters reported Jan. 9. Sky News cited one unnamed source saying the United Kingdom could offer around 10 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Why It Matters: It is unclear whether London will supply the tanks until it reaches a broader agreement with other key NATO allies such as France, Germany and the United States to also supply main battle tanks. The Western nations are likely to reach such an agreement eventually, as Ukraine needs to replace its older and increasingly scarce Russian and Soviet-era equipment. Western main battle tanks pose little escalation risk given that the West has already supplied other modern vehicles to Ukraine and the tanks are unlikely to be provided quickly enough and in sufficient quantity to ensure Ukrainian gains on the battlefield, for which other Western weapons would be needed. However, Moscow will still claim that any deal to provide Ukraine with tanks escalates the war and risks drawing NATO into direct combat with Russia.
Background: If the deal goes through, it would be the first time a Western country has given Ukraine modern main battle tanks to fight Russian forces. In a joint statement on Jan. 5, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden announced that both countries will send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, which followed a similar announcement from France's President Emmanuel Macron. The commander of Ukraine's armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, has claimed that Ukraine will need 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers to launch a new offensive against Russia.
France: Conservative Opposition Backs Macron's Plan for Pension Reform
What Happened: The president of France's conservative Republicans party (LR), Eric Ciotti, said his party will support French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal to reform France's pension system provided that certain conditions are met, Les Echos reported Jan. 8. Some of the party's requests include raising the statutory retirement age to 64 (as opposed to Macron's plan to raise it to 65) and granting a minimum pension of 1,200 euros ($1,288) for new entrants and retroactively for current retirees to receive lower pensions.
Why It Matters: The French government does not control a majority of seats in the National Assembly, which means Paris needs support from LR to pass its pension reform. The reform would put France closer to other European countries that have in recent years increased their retirement age to adapt to higher life expectancies. But the reform is unpopular in France, and trade unions, left-wing political parties and other groups will protest it, which means large-scale strikes and demonstrations are likely in the coming months.
Background: Reforming the pension system was one of Macron's central electoral promises because the system may become unsustainable in the coming decades. The French government is expected to unveil its legislative proposal for a reform on Jan. 10.
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Blocks Tax Revenue Transfer to Palestinian Authority
What Happened: Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the right-wing Religious Zionism party ordered the ministry to redirect some $40 million in tax revenue from the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, to the families of those killed by militant attacks inside Israel, The Times of Israel reported Jan. 8. Meanwhile, Israeli Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir of the right-wing Otzma Yehudit party ordered police to tear down Palestinian flags in public places, though it was not clear whether or not Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai, a career official, would follow the orders.
Why It Matters: Israel will likely interrupt future disbursements of tax revenue to the Palestinian Authority in response to Palestinian violence or reports of the Palestinian Authority making "martyrs payments" to the families of those killed fighting Israel. This will slow the West Bank's economy and hurt the Palestinian Authority's ability to pay civil servant salaries. An economic crisis in the West Bank would likely spark protests that turn violent, while aggressive police action against Palestinian Authority symbols (such as flags) could cause clashes between police and Palestinian protestors.
Background: Smotrich is reacting to the Jan. 5 release of a Palestinian man after he served over 40 years in an Israeli prison for killing a soldier in 1980. The Palestinian Authority is already struggling to balance its budget after the international community, led by the United States and Gulf Arab states, dramatically cut aid to the Palestinians over the past few years.
China: COVID-19 U-Turn Explanations Evince Beijing's Worries About Unrest
What Happened: Liang Wannian, the head of China's expert COVID-19 response team at the National Health Commission, held an interview with state broadcaster China Central Television on Jan. 8 to explain that China's reversal of its "zero-COVID" policy was well-planned, despite popular opinion, the South China Morning Post reported Jan. 9. On the same day, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, the People's Daily, published a lengthy essay describing how there had been differing opinions about the best policy for COVID-19 and that Beijing had consulted many experts before making this decision.
Why It Matters: These official explanations for China's policy reversal are an ongoing response to public anger about China's management of COVID-19, highlighting the persistent risk of new protests. These protests could disrupt factory activity and at worst risk international sanctions. Officials' poor reasoning for the policy reversal suggests it was indeed sudden and ill-planned, highlighting the difficulty for Beijing in managing a hostile foreign environment paired with a restive domestic front.
Background: Liang claimed on the one hand that medical resources in every country will inevitably be overwhelmed by outbreaks, and on the other that China had prepared its medical resources prior to the policy reversal well. He also admitted many elderly people had died in the latest wave.
U.K., EU: London and Brussels Reach Deal to Share Trade Data
What Happened: The United Kingdom agreed to give the European Union access to a British database providing real-time information on goods entering Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom, The Guardian reported Jan. 9. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will hold separate talks with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and republican Sinn Fein party during the week of Jan. 9 about government formation.
Why It Matters: This agreement is a significant step toward ending disputes between the European Union and the United Kingdom over the Northern Ireland Protocol, which established customs controls at the Irish Sea as part of the 2020 EU-U.K. Brexit deal. While London and Brussels are interested in resolving the dispute, significant disagreements remain, including over phytosanitary controls at the Irish Sea and the role of the European Court of Justice in the arbitration of the protocol. Failure to reach a compromise on the protocol would increase the risk of a trade war between the United Kingdom and the European Union. A resolution to the Northern Ireland Protocol dispute would bode well for the creation of a coalition government in Northern Ireland, as the DUP refuses to form a government coalition with Sinn Fein unless the Northern Ireland Protocol is abolished or substantially modified. But if the DUP and Sinn Fein fail to form a government coalition by Jan. 19 (and if the British government does not extend the government formation deadline past March or April) a new regional election will take place in Northern Ireland in mid-2023.
Background: London has repeatedly threatened to unilaterally ignore the Northern Ireland Protocol, while Brussels has threatened to retaliate with trade and financial measures. Brussels and London would like to reach a final deal regarding the protocol before the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement (which ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland) on April 10.
Turkey, Syria: Russia Agrees to U.N. Extension of Humanitarian Lifeline to Syria's Rebel-Held Idlib Province
What Happened: Russia joined the U.N. Security Council in a unanimous vote to keep a key aid crossing open from Turkey to Syria's rebel-held Idlib province, in a reversal of previous abstentions and votes to block aid, AP reported Jan. 10. Russia previously said it wanted to see aid go through territory held by the Syrian government rather than Idlib.
Why It Matters: Russia's reversal signals that Moscow is shifting away from its strategy of restricting U.N. aid to Idlib province in a bid to pressure rebel groups to reconcile with the government. Instead, Russia likely hopes that recent moves toward Turko-Syrian normalization will decrease Turkey's support for Syrian rebels, which would increase the prospect of Syrian and Russian military offensives against Idlib. However, a full-scale normalization deal between Syria and Turkey remains distant, as Turkey wants to retain its buffer zone along their shared border in order to protect itself from Syria-based militant groups.
Background: In late 2022, Turkey began to send signals it was ready to reconcile with Syria, whose government it has opposed since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, as Ankara shifted to focus more on Kurdish militants rather than the overall rebellion against Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Idlib rebels have criticized the move, which they see as a drift toward Turkey pushing them to reconcile and lay down their arms against the government.
Nigeria: Electoral Commission Warns Violence Could Cancel or Postpone February Elections
What Happened: Nigeria's February election could be postponed or canceled if the current level of insecurity persists, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Africa News reported Jan. 9.
Why It Matters: Insecurity across Nigeria is likely to dampen electoral participation, but postponed or canceled polls would prolong political uncertainty and could trigger unrest over the government's inadequate response to violence. It appears likely that the INEC's warning is intended to trigger greater political and financial support in order to hold elections on schedule, but it nonetheless exhibits the gravity of the worsening security situation.
Background: The INEC has recorded at least 50 attacks on its officers and/or voting infrastructure since November 2022; a jihadist insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest and central regions, increased criminal activity in urban centers (like Lagos and Abuja), and separatist violence in the southeast have worsened over current President Muhammadu Buhari's tenure.
Rwanda, Congo: Kagame Says Rwanda Will No Longer Accept Congolese Refugees
What Happened: Rwandan President Paul Kagame said in a Jan. 9 public address that Rwanda "cannot keep hosting refugees" from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 10. Other reports suggest that, in addition to closing Rwanda's border to future refugees, Kagame is also threatening to evict the tens of thousands of Congolese refugees who are currently residing in Rwanda.
Why It Matters: If Rwanda moves forward with the threats, it will likely spark another diplomatic flashpoint with Congo that could invite more condemnations and accusations from Congo and the international community regarding Rwanda's alleged support for the M23 rebel group, as well as slow any future dialogue facilitated by the ongoing Luanda peace process in Angola. Moreover, given that approximately 72,000 refugees are currently in Rwanda and thousands more are still fleeing violence in eastern Congo, a border closure and eviction would increase the already massive internally displaced population in Congo. This would worsen the humanitarian crisis and increase civilian exposure to the violence there perpetrated by pro-government forces and over 120 rebel groups.
Background: Rwanda has long been accused of supporting the M23 rebel group, which has resurged in eastern Congo over 2022 and made significant territorial gains in Congo's North Kivu province. In November 2022, Rwanda and Congo agreed to mutually support a cease-fire between M23 and Congolese forces, but hostilities have since resumed, though some reports suggest M23 may be withdrawing from some of its occupied territories to comply with the demands of the Luanda peace process (though the group is not officially a party in those talks).
China: Beijing Bans Visas for Japan and South Korea
What Happened: China's embassy in Seoul, South Korea, announced that it was suspending the issuance of short-term visas to South Koreans for "business, tourism, medical care, transit, and personal matters," claiming the restriction could be lifted if South Korea stops its "discriminative" treatment of Chinese travelers, Reuters reported on Jan. 10. The Chinese embassy in Tokyo, Japan, confirmed on the same day that China had also stopped issuing business and tourist visas for Japanese citizens.
Why It Matters: China intends the bans to deter other countries from restricting the movement of Chinese travelers, as well as to pressure Japan and South Korea, whose economies are heavily dependent on China, to retract their travel restrictions on Chinese travelers. At the same time, the visa suspensions contradict Beijing's latest diplomatic goodwill campaign, which is intended to revive trade relations with South Korea and Japan, as well as other neighbors. The retaliatory measures show that Beijing continues to prioritize political issues — like maintaining a positive domestic image regarding its post-COVID-19 reopening in the eyes of disgruntled citizens — over foreign relations.
Background: South Korea and Japan placed restrictions on Chinese travelers as a means of curbing the potential spread of new variants of COVID-19 as China experiences its largest infection wave yet. Other, particularly Western, countries have acted similarly.
Nepal: Prime Minister Dahal Secures Vote of Confidence
What Happened: Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who leads the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center), was confirmed in his post after he secured a vote of confidence in parliament, Reuters reported Jan. 10.
Why It Matters: Dahal's government is composed of an alliance between left- and right-leaning parties after the November 2022 general elections resulted in a hung parliament, and this ideological diversity will make it difficult for the government to agree on foreign policy and issues of Nepalese sovereignty. For example, while Dahal's communist party is seemingly pro-China, other parties in his coalition will motivate the government to also maintain relations with India and other regional partners.
Background: Each new prime minister in Nepal must prove their majority through a confidence vote before they are confirmed.
Sri Lanka: President Orders Spending Cuts as Economic Crisis Continues
What Happened: Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe instructed his Cabinet to slash 5% of the allocated budget to all ministries due to low funds, ColomboPage reported Jan. 10. Additionally, a minister suggested that the payment of salaries to public sector employees could be delayed in January and February.
Why It Matters: These announcements signal that Sri Lanka's economic situation will continue to worsen, and austerity measures will continue to limit the government's ability to provide relief to citizens, maintaining the risk of political instability. Sri Lanka's economic situation will ease once debt restructuring talks move forward, as this will unlock financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund; other international institutions and bilateral lenders will likely then follow suit.
Background: Although Sri Lanka's government has imposed higher taxes as austerity measures, tax collection is expected to be low in at least the first half of 2023.
Russia: Moscow Approves Rail Maintenance Plan as Cargo Shipments Fall in 2022
What Happened: Russia's fully state-owned, vertically integrated national railway operator Russian Railways disclosed that cargo shipments by train fell 3.8% year-on-year in 2022 to 1.23 billion tons, Reuters reported Jan. 9. The disclosure came the same day that the Russian government approved a 7.6 trillion ruble ($110 billion) 2023-2035 rail track maintenance and overhaul plan for the operator, the funding mechanisms for which were not identified.
Why It Matters: Russia's declining rail cargoes are a concrete indicator confirming Russia's economic contraction, which is likely to continue in 2023. While Russian Railways' initial proposal foresaw the government funding the maintenance and modernization of rail infrastructure, amid Russia's budgetary straits Russian Railways will likely have to finance the majority of the program itself by increasing rates and fees. This will make Russia even less competitive as a transit hub at precisely the time when it is facing increased competition from other transit routes, including the Trans-Caspian Corridor. Russia will try to stay attractive by reducing cargo transit times from China to Europe, but Moscow's rail support plan could be in vain, as the country's cargo transit is declining anyway due to sanctions and risks associated with Russia's struggling economy. The situation could eventually result in Chinese investors gaining a greater stake in Russia's railway sector.
Background: The 2022 decline was the largest decrease in Russia's rail traffic since 2009. In 2022, the transport of coal (the top cargo for Russian Railways) fell by 4.6%, while timber shipments fell the most at 24.8% year-on-year.
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