To All,
Good Sunday morning September 10, 2023
I hope that your weekend is going well. A bit long today but lots to unpack. Remember peruse at your leisure and there is no test at the end
The 22nd Anniversary of 911 is tomorrow. There are a number of writings and TV shows that summarize what happened. We should watch these and remember because what happened in Afghanistan last year and what is going on lately in our country will embolden them to come back. With our current policy of immigration they may be here already.We are not ready.
Regards,
Skip
Today in Naval and Marine Corps History Thanks to NHHC
September 10
1813 During the War of 1812, Commodore Oliver H. Perry leads his fleet at the Battle of Lake Erie, flying his "Don't give up the ship" flag on the brig USS Lawrence, which is destroyed during battle. Rowing in open boat to Niagara with survivors, Perry brings the fleet into action and wins the engagement. Reporting on British squadron defeat, he writes: "We have met the enemy and they are ours...."
1846 John Y. Mason becomes the 18th Secretary of the Navy, serving until March 1849. This term is marked by efforts to sustain the Navy's force in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific coast, to construct new steamers and an effort to obtain warships thorough the subsidization of civilian mail steamships.
1851 The paddle frigate USS Mississippi carries Gov. Louis Kossuth and the other refugees of the overthrown government of the Hungarian Republic from Dardanelles to Gibraltar.
1861 During the Civil War, USS Lexington and USS Conestoga support an armed advance at Lucas Bend, Mo. While supporting the advance, the vessels damage the Confederate gunboat, CSS Jackson, and silence a Confederate battery.
1944 Submarine USS Sunfish (SS 281) torpedoes and sinks Japanese merchant tanker, Chihaya Maru, east of Quelpart Island.
1945 USS Midway (CVB/CVA/CV 41) is commissioned as the lead ship of its class. USS Midway is the largest ship in the world until 1955. USS Midway serves for 47 years during the Vietnam War and as the Persian Gulf flagship in 1991's Operation Desert Storm. In 1992, USS Midway is decommissioned and is now a museum ship at the USS Midway Museum, in San Diego, CA.
2017 Hurricane Irma makes landfall as a Category 4 storm in the Florida Keys, and makes landfall a second time the same day on Marco Island on the state's Gulf Coast. The Navy responds by sending USS Wasp (LHD 1), USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), USS Oak Hill (LSD 51), USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7), USS New York (LPD 21), USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and 16 aircraft to provide humanitarian assistance that lasts until Sept. 19.
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Today in World History
September 10
1419 John the Fearless is murdered at Montereau, France, by supporters of the dauphin.
1547 The Duke of Somerset leads the English to a resounding victory over the Scots at Pinkie Cleugh.
1588 Thomas Cavendish returns to England, becoming the third man to circumnavigate the globe.
1623 Lumber and furs are the first cargo to leave New Plymouth in North America for England.
1813 The nine-ship American flotilla under Oliver Hazard Perry wrests naval supremacy from the British on Lake Erie by capturing or destroying a force of six English vessels.
1846 Elias Howe patents the first practical sewing machine in the United States.
1855 Sevastopol, under siege for nearly a year, capitulates to the Allies during the Crimean War.
1861 Confederates at Carnifex Ferry, Virginia, fall back after being attacked by Union troops. The action is instrumental in helping preserve western Virginia for the Union.
1912 Jules Vedrines becomes the first pilot to break the 100 m.p.h. barrier.
1914 The six-day Battle of the Marne ends, halting the German advance into France.
1923 In response to a dispute with Yugoslavia, Mussolini mobilizes Italian troops on Serb front.
1961 Jomo Kenyatta returns to Kenya from exile, during which he had been elected president of the Kenya National African Union.
1963 President John F. Kennedy federalizes Alabama's National Guard to prevent Governor George C. Wallace from using guardsmen to stop public-school desegregation.
1967 Gibraltar votes to remain a British dependency instead of becoming part of Spain.
1974 Guinea-Bissau (Portuguese Guinea) gains independence from Portugal.
1981 Pablo Picasso's painting Guernica is returned to Spain and installed in Madrid's Prado Museum. Picasso stated in his will that the painting was not to return to Spain until the Fascists lost power and democracy was restored.
2001 Contestant Charles Ingram cheats on the British version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, wins 1 million pounds.
2003 Sweden's foreign minister, Anna Lindh, is stabbed while shopping and dies the next day.
2007 Nawaz Sharif, former prime minister of Pakistan, returns after 7 years in exile, following a military coup in October 1999.
2008 The Large Hadron Collider, the world's largest and most powerful particle accelerator—described as the biggest scientific experiment in history—is powered up in Geneva, Switzerland.
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ROLLING THUNDER REMEMBERED Thanks to the Bear … Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…
Skip… For The List for Sunday, 10 September 2023… Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻
OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…
From the archives of rollingthunderremembered.com post for 10 September 1968…
Bad idea: Let strategic forces go to pot while waging an endless conventional war…
Thanks to Micro
From Vietnam Air Losses site for Sunday, September 10
September 10th: https://www.vietnamairlosses.com/loss.php?id=787
This following work accounts for every fixed wing loss of the Vietnam War and you can use it to read more about the losses in The Bear's Daily account. Even better it allows you to add your updated information to the work to update for history…skip Vietnam Air Losses Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at: https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.
This is a list of all Helicopter Pilots Who Died in the Vietnam War . Listed by last name and has other info https://www.vhpa.org/KIA/KIAINDEX.HTM
MOAA - Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Servicemembers Killed in the Vietnam War
The site works, find anyone you knew in "search" feature. https://www.vvmf.org/Wall-of-Faces/ )
Wall of Faces Now Includes Photos of All Service members Killed in the Vietnam War
By: Kipp Hanley
AUGUST 15, 2022
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These things started breaking down right out of the box
Thanks to Carl
(Very lengthy article about the sad history of the LCS! I knew Mabus was a horrible SECNAV, but he was even worse! CDR Salamander has been writing about the LCS problems for years.)
The Inside Story of How the Navy Spent Billions on the "Little Crappy Ship"
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• One Navy secretary and his allies in Congress fought to build more littoral combat ships even as they broke down at sea and their weapons systems failed. The Navy wound up with more ships than it wanted, at an estimated lifetime cost that could reach $100 billion or more.
• The Navy's haste to deliver ships took precedence over combat ability. Without functioning weapons systems the vessels are like a "box floating in the ocean," one former officer said.
• Sailors and officers complained they spent more time fixing the ships than sailing them. The stress led many to seek mental health care.
• Top Navy commanders placed pressure on subordinates to sail the ships even when the crews and vessels were not fully prepared to go to sea.
• Several major breakdowns in 2016 exposed the limits of the ships and their crews, each adding fresh embarrassment to a program meant to propel the Navy into a more technologically advanced future.
Littoral combat ships were supposed to launch the Navy into the future. Instead they broke down across the globe and many of their weapons never worked. Now the Navy is getting rid of them. One is less than five years old.
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From the archives
Thanks to Barrel
I think I would invest in a larger caliber…
Don't Mess With Mama & her Daughter
Gun fight during store robbery......Tough Oklahoma ladies. GOTTA LOVE A HAPPY ENDING!!!!!!!!
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/112/951/221/playable/2c9fc9533bae7c53.mp4
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Thanks to interesting Facts
8 Child Prodigies Who Changed the World
We've all seen our share of talented children — the ambidextrous baseball pitchers, the ones who knock out "Für Elise" on the piano with surprising ease, or impress with a recitation of obscure facts from their favorite subjects.
Chances are, we're witnessing something promising but hardly unusual; adept kids emerge in every generation. However, once in a blue moon, a youngster unleashes such a mind-blowing show of talent that global recognition becomes a distinct possibility. Here are eight such prodigies who quickly dispensed with the training wheels before zooming to the top of their respective fields.
1 of 8
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
Intrigued by the harpsichord at age 3, Austrian Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart accelerated through lessons and delivered his first musical composition in 1761 at age 5. That was enough for his father, who sent young Mozart and his older sister — also a gifted musician — on a tour of European cities over the next decade. Mozart thrived despite the grueling traveling conditions, dashing off his first symphony at age eight and his first operas not long after. At age 14, he transcribed Gregorio Allegri's "Miserere" from memory after hearing it performed at the Sistine Chapel, and returned a few weeks later to make only minor corrections to his notes. Mozart, of course, went on to become one of the greatest composers of the classical period, and the early realization of his abilities allowed him the time to create more than 600 works despite an early death at age 35.
2 of 8
Shirley Temple
Few child stars in history have as much notoriety as Shirley Temple. When she was 4 years old, Temple was already lighting up the screen in a series of film shorts called Baby Burlesks (1932). By age seven, she had already appeared in more than 10 feature films and earned a special juvenile Academy Award, and that was before she became Hollywood's No. 1 box office draw for four years running. Temple eventually aged out of her bread-and-butter roles as America's dimple-cheeked sweetheart, and her film career was over by the time she legally became an adult. Fortunately, she avoided the tragedies that plagued many of the child stars who followed in her footsteps by launching a successful second act as a prominent diplomat. Temple, who eventually went by her married name, Shirley Temple Black, was a delegate to the U.N. General Assembly from 1969 to 1970, served as U.S. ambassador to Ghana from 1974 to 1976, was the chief of protocol for President Gerald Ford, and served as ambassador to Czechoslovakia from 1989 to 1992, among other diplomatic roles.
3 of 8
Bobby Fisher
Born in Chicago, Illinois in 1943, Bobby Fisher began playing chess at age 6 after his big sister purchased a $1 set. His talent had blossomed by age 13 when Fisher defeated former U.S. champion Donald Byrne in the "game of the century." He went on to become the youngest national champion at age 14, the game's youngest grandmaster at age 15, and the first American to claim the world championship. Unfortunately after these early successes, an increasingly erratic Fisher became better known for his bigoted rants and troubles with the law, though his place in history is secure thanks to the early show of brilliance that popularized the insular game of kings.
4 of 8
Sor Juana Inés de la Cruz
There weren't many pathways to success for girls born to unwed parents in 17th-century Mexico, but Sor Juana Inés de la Cruz managed to transcend her origins with a dazzling mind and a deft pen. Largely self-taught, she wrote her first dramatic poem at age eight, studied the Greek classics, and was instructing children in Latin by age 13. A few years later, she joined the court of the Viceroy Marquis de Mancera, where she famously wowed a panel of professors with her expertise in numerous subjects. Sor Juana then entered a convent, where she enjoyed the freedom to pen numerous plays, poems, and carols, as well as the proto-feminist manifesto Respuesta a sor Filotea de la Cruz. A clash with authority figures forced her to abandon her creative pursuits shortly before her death in 1695, but she endures as one of the most important literary figures of the New Spanish Baroque.
5 of 8
John Stuart Mill
English philosopher John Stuart Mill's legacy as one of the great writers and thinkers of the 19th century was forged by a childhood devoted to academia. Undertaking a rigorous curriculum, Mill was studying ancient Greek by age three, wrote a history of ancient Rome by age six, and mastered Latin by age 8. The training left him positioned to aid his philosopher father's intellectual pursuits, but it also produced an inner turmoil that manifested in a nervous breakdown and a period of depression in his early 20s. It wasn't until he started reading poetry that Mill began understanding the feelings that had been repressed since childhood, paving the way for his groundbreaking works on utilitarianism, intellectual freedom, capitalism, and gender equality.
6 of 8
Jascha Heifetz
In 1903, at just 2 years old, Jascha Heifetz began learning the violin and rapidly developed fluency with the instrument that would carry him from his native Russia to all corners of the world. He made his formal public debut at age eight, performed before a reported 8,000 people at age 10, and played with the Berlin Philharmonic as an 11-year-old. A seasoned pro by his teenage years, Heifetz made his long-awaited Carnegie Hall debut at 16 and launched a prolific recording career shortly afterward. Heifetz was also a gifted pianist, and he enjoyed success as a Tin Pan Alley composer under the pseudonym of Jim Hoyl, though he remained most beloved for the violin wizardry that was apparent from the very beginning.
7 of 8
John von Neumann
While not nearly as well-remembered as fellow European emigree and scholar Albert Einstein, John von Neumann was also a certifiable genius who made an enormous imprint on the world around him. Born in 1903 in Budapest, Hungry, his turbo-charged intellect was apparent by the early stages of grade school. Von Neumann could converse in ancient Greek and multiply two eight-digit numbers in his head by age 6 and within two years he was already learning calculus. His dad tried to dissuade his son from a career in mathematics over fears that it was an unsustainable career, but von Neumann not only proved he could make a comfortable living in the field, he also showed his training could be applied to the development of game theory, personal computers, weather forecasting, and other real-world applications.
8 of 8
Willie Mosconi
Billiards legend Willie Mosconi got his start playing the game in his father's Philadelphia pool hall, even as his father tried to steer him toward a stage career. After the boy kept sneaking in to practice with a potato and broom handle, a resigned papa figured he could make the most of his son's determination. In 1919, at age 6, Mosconi more than held his own in a match against world champion Ralph Greenleaf, and at age 11, he became the juvenile champ. From there, there was no slowing the man The New York Times called the Babe Ruth of his sport, who once sunk a record 526 shots in a row and won the world billiards title 13 times over 15 years.
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Yesterday's article on the 1000 plane raid join-ups has brought more information and stories…skip
Thanks to Dr. Rich
Thanks to John T. ...
What did they do to the lead aircraft to make them stand out??
On Sep 9, 2023, at 7:52 AM, John Tillman wrote
Truly amazing there weren't more mid-airs.
Wonder how long the gaudily painted form up bombers were used.
——-///——-
Thanks to Dr. Rich
The Mighty Eighth" - more ..
Thanks to Ed ...
… and in case anyone has is curious about the award-winning screenplay based on the story, a link to the first 12 pages is at the bottom:
TheStoryOfBaby
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==
On 9/9/2023 9:58 AM, Richard Sugden, MD wrote:
Thanks to Ed …
Rich,
The mere assembly of 1000 bomber raids is, indeed, hair-raising!
And imagine the German citizens in 1945 witnessing the endless streams above them!!
My uncle, Oscar Sampson, died before I knew this entire story.
His adventure, as part of the 92nd BG, of how and why he escaped from Switzerland (sic) is mentioned in 8 books so far.
Sampson was a co-pilot in the 92nd BG, out of Podington, England.
John Steichen, the crew's surviving navigator, gave me much of the story, and described his first mission, with a different crew, when the pilot told him, "Give me a heading to the 'flasher' ".
John replied, "What's a 'flasher'? "
It must have been a different name for the 'buncher'.
Ed
For those interested, the whole story:
http://jmisys.com/WWII/page_one.html
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This Day in U S Military History
September 10
1813 – In the first unqualified defeat of a British naval squadron in history, U.S. Captain Oliver Hazard Perry leads a fleet of nine American ships to victory over a squadron of six British warships at the Battle of Lake Erie during the War of 1812. The battle was closely contested for hours, and Perry's flagship Lawrence was reduced to a defenseless wreck. He then transferred to the Niagara and sailed directly into the British line, firing broadsides and forcing the British to surrender. Perry had won a complete victory at the cost of 27 Americans killed and 96 wounded; British casualties were 40 dead and 94 wounded. After the battle, Perry sent a famous dispatch to U.S. General William Henry Harrison that read, "We have met the enemy, and they are ours." The Battle of Lake Erie forced the British to abandon Detroit, ensuring U.S. control over Lake Erie and the territorial northwest.
1964 – Following the Tonkin Gulf incidents, in which North Vietnamese torpedo boats attacked U.S. destroyers, and the subsequent passage of the Tonkin Gulf Resolution empowering him to react to armed attacks, President Lyndon Johnson authorizes a series of measures "to assist morale in South Vietnam and show the Communists [in North Vietnam] we still mean business." These measures included covert action such as the resumption of the DeSoto intelligence patrols and South Vietnamese coastal raids to harass the North Vietnamese. Premier Souvanna Phouma of Laos was also asked to allow the South Vietnamese to make air and ground raids into southeastern Laos, along with air strikes by Laotian planes and U.S. armed aerial reconnaissance to cut off the North Vietnamese infiltration along the route that became known as the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Eventually, U.S. warplanes would drop over 2 million tons of bombs on Laos as part of Operations Steel Tiger and Tiger Hound between 1965 and 1973.
2005 – Operation Restoring Rights begins in which approximately 5,000 soldiers from the 3rd Division of the Iraqi Security Force in conjunction with 3,500 troops from the U.S. Army's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment and the 325th Airborne Infantry Regiment, 82nd Airborne Division entered the city of Tal Afar. The operation lasted until October and resulted in 10,000 pounds of explosives being uncovered and destroyed. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi accused the American military of using "poisonous gases" on Tal Afar in an audiotape received and posted on an Islamic website. The United States denied using chemical weapons in Tal Afar saying such reports were propaganda created by Abu-Mus'ab al-Zarqawi and were false and without merit. There was an incident in which US troops wore gas masks after discovering chlorine-based chemicals. The operation tested a new strategy of "clear, hold, build", in which areas would be purged of insurgents and then occupied and then rebuilt to win support from local people before being handed over to the Iraqi security forces. An ambitious reconstruction effort was immediately implemented. New sewers were dug and the fronts of shops, destroyed in the assault, were replaced within weeks. Numerous police stations were built or rebuilt in the town by an Anglo-American construction team led by Huw Thomas. In March 2006, U.S. President George W. Bush pointed to Tal Afar as a success story, where one could "see the outlines of the Iraq we've been fighting for". The operation was considered one of the first successful counterinsurgency operations in Iraq. Colonel H.R. McMaster, commander of the operation became an advisor to General David Petraeus in the planning and execution of the 2007 troop surge.
2010 – The Battle of the Palm Grove, a 4 day engagement, took place during the Iraq War when elements of the Second Advise and Assist Brigade (Stryker Brigade Combat Team), 25th ID of the US Army supported 200 Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police in a search and sweep operation against 15-25 insurgents planting IEDs in Hudaidy, Diyala Province. During the fighting, Apache attack helicopters and Air Force F-16 fighters were called in. The fighter jets dropped two 500-lb. bombs, but it seemed to no effect. After three days of clashes, the insurgent force managed to withdraw without suffering any casualties, while up to 33 members of the Iraqi security forces were killed or wounded and even two U.S. soldiers were also injured. The battle showed the continuing struggle of the Iraqi security forces with their abilities to take control of the security in the country, without the U.S. military. In the words of an Iraqi lieutenant, If it wasn't for the American air support and artillery we would never have dreamed of entering that orchard. It was also the last major battle of the war involving U.S. forces against insurgent elements.
Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day
*CRAIG, GORDON M.
Rank and organization: Corporal, U.S. Army, Reconnaissance Company, 1st Cavalry Division. Place and date: Near Kasan, Korea 10 September 1950. Entered service at. Brockton, Mass. Born: 1 August 1929, Brockton, Mass. G.O. No.: 23, 25 April 1951. Citation: Cpl. Craig, 16th Reconnaissance Company, distinguished himself by conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity above and beyond the call of duty in action against the enemy. During the attack on a strategic enemy-held hill his company's advance was subjected to intense hostile grenade mortar, and small-arms fire. Cpl. Craig and 4 comrades moved forward to eliminate an enemy machine gun nest that was hampering the company's advance. At that instance an enemy machine gunner hurled a hand grenade at the advancing men. Without hesitating or attempting to seek cover for himself, Cpl. Craig threw himself on the grenade and smothered its burst with his body. His intrepid and selfless act, in which he unhesitantly gave his life for his comrades, inspired them to attack with such ferocity that they annihilated the enemy machine gun crew, enabling the company to continue its attack. Cpl. Craig's noble self-sacrifice reflects the highest credit upon himself and upholds the esteemed traditions of the military service.
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AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for September 10, 2020 FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY
10 September
1927: E. J. Hill and A. G. Schlosser set a FAI distance record for subclass A-7 balloons (1,600 to 2,200 cubic meters) in the Gordon Bennett International Balloon Race by flying 745 miles from Detroit, Mich., to Baxley, Ga. Georges Blanchett and Dr. George LeGallee also set a 49-hour duration record in the same event by flying to Waverly, Ga. His record went into the books for three subclasses: A-7, A-8 and A-9 (2,200 to 3,000 and 3,000 to 4,000 cubic meters). (9)
1942: The Secretary of War formed the Women's Auxiliary Ferrying Squadron. Then in October, female pilots began ferrying aircraft from production sites to airfields in the US. (18)
1944: Over 1,000 Eighth Air Force bombers, escorted by hundreds of fighters, raided aircraft factories, motor transport parks, engine plants, a jet engine plant, and German airfields. (4) The C-82 prototype made its first flight at Fairchild's plant at Hagerstown, Md. It was the first aircraft designed in World War II to carry cargo exclusively. (12)
1945: The USS Midway, first of the 45,000-ton class carriers, commissioned at Newport News. (24)
1950: KOREAN WAR. After USN Task Force 77 withdrew its close air support of the Eighth Army (see 3 September), General Stratemeyer asked General MacArther to direct all close air support requests to the Fifth Air Force. If unable to meet a request, Fifth Air Force would forward it to FEAF headquarters for coordination with the Commander, Naval Forces, Far East. (28)
1951: KOREAN WAR. South of Pyongyang, a 3 ARS H-5 helicopter, with fighter escort, rescued an F-80 pilot, Capt Ward M. Millar, 7 FBS. He suffered two broken ankles during his ejection from the jet, but escaped after two months as a prisoner of war and then evaded recapture for three weeks. The helicopter delivered Millar to Seoul. (28)
1953: First Douglas C-124C Globemaster delivered to MATS.
1956: First flight of the F-107.
1960: Operation SKY SHIELD. NORAD tested the defense readiness of American and Canadian radar and electronic systems. (24)
1964: Agreements between the Departments of Treasury, Defense, Interior, Commerce, the FAA, and NASA established the Joint Navigation Satellite Committee (JNSC). This committee evaluated requirements for a nonmilitary satellite system for air-sea navigation, traffic control, emergency and rescue operations, and related functions.
1965: The USAF launched the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) weather satellite, which enabled the Air Weather Service to gather global weather data. (2)
1969: Project Rulison occurred as the second in the Atomic Energy Commission's Operation Plowshare to explore peaceful uses of atomic energy. The first event, Cabriolet, involved a cratering experiment that took place on 26 January 1968 at the Nevada Test Site.
1974: Last Minuteman I transferred from SAC inventory to be replaced by Minuteman III. This action completed a modernization program to replace Minuteman I after 11 years of service in SAC.
1980: TYPHOON ORCHID. The typhoon caused severe flooding along the eastern coast of South Korea. An HH-3E helicopter from Osan AB rescued 229 people from swirling waters southeast of Osan. (16) (26)
1988: Through 15 September, MAC wings flew 100 tons of relief supplies and a field hospital to help victims of a flood in Bangladesh. The flood covered 3/4s of the country and almost all of the capital city, Dhaka, killing 1,200 people and leaving 28 million inhabitants homeless. (26)
1993: Boeing rolled out its 1000th 747 (747-400 model) commercial jet at Seattle. (20)
2003: A B-2A successfully dropped 80 independently targeted JDAM GBU-38 "smart" munitions against 80 separate targets at the Utah Test and Training Range to test a new Smart Bomb Rack Assembly (SBRA). The SBRA allowed the B-2 to carry, target, release, and control up to 80 GPS-guided weapons rather than its normal load of 16 weapons. (3)
2005: The first-ever C-130 combat mission by an all-female crew was flown from a forward location in Southwest Asia with 151 Marines and their equipment. The crew included Capt Carol J. Mitchell, aircraft commander; 1st Lt Siobhan Couturier, pilot; Capt Anita T. Mack, navigator; SSgt Josie E. Harshe, flight engineer; and loadmasters TSgt Sigrid M. Carrero-Perez and SrA Ci Ci Alonzo. The six women were all assigned to the 43 AW at Pope AFB and were deployed to the 737th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron to fly troops and cargo in and out of Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Horn of Africa. (22)
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From the archives
Economy"
Bill Gates has said that when it comes to understanding energy realities "we need to bring math to the problem." He's right.
Sunday, July 7, 2019
A week doesn't pass without a mayor, governor, policymaker or pundit joining the rush to demand, or predict, an energy future that is entirely based on wind/solar and batteries, freed from the "burden" of the hydrocarbons that have fueled societies for centuries. Regardless of one's opinion about whether, or why, an energy "transformation" is called for, the physics and economics of energy combined with scale realities make it clear that there is no possibility of anything resembling a radically "new energy economy" in the foreseeable future. Bill Gates has said that when it comes to understanding energy realities "we need to bring math to the problem."
He's right. So, in my recent Manhattan Institute report, "The New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking," I did just that.
Herein, then, is a summary of some of the bottom-line realities from the underlying math. (See the full report for explanations, documentation, and citations.)
Realities About the Scale of Energy Demand
1. Hydrocarbons supply over 80 percent of world energy: If all that were in the form of oil, the barrels would line up from Washington, D.C., to Los Angeles, and that entire line would grow by the height of the Washington Monument every week.
2. The small two-percentage-point decline in the hydrocarbon share of world energy use entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on alternatives over that period; solar and wind today supply less than two percent of the global energy.
3. When the world's four billion poor people increase energy use to just one-third of Europe's per capita level, global demand rises by an amount equal to twice America's total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in the number of electric vehicles to 400 million on the roads by 2040 would displace five percent of global oil demand.
5. Renewable energy would have to expand 90-fold to replace global hydrocarbons in two decades. It took a half-century for global petroleum production to expand "only" ten-fold.
6. Replacing U.S. hydrocarbon-based electric generation over the next 30 years would require a construction program building out the grid at a rate 14-fold greater than any time in history.
7. Eliminating hydrocarbons to make U.S. electricity (impossible soon, infeasible for decades) would leave untouched 70 percent of U.S. hydrocarbons use—America uses 16 percent of world energy.
Since 1995, total world energy use rose by 50 percent, an amount equal to adding two entire United States' worth of demand.
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8. Efficiency increases energy demand by making products & services cheaper: since 1990, global energy efficiency improved 33 percent, the economy grew 80 percent and global energy use is up 40 percent.
9. Efficiency increases energy demand: Since 1995, aviation fuel use/passenger-mile is down 70 percent, air traffic rose more than 10-fold, and global aviation fuel use rose over 50 percent.
10. Efficiency increases energy demand: since 1995, energy used per byte is down about 10,000-fold, but global data traffic rose about a million-fold; global electricity used for computing soared.
11. Since 1995, total world energy use rose by 50 percent, an amount equal to adding two entire United States' worth of demand.
12. For security and reliability, an average of two months of national demand for hydrocarbons are in storage at any time. Today, barely two hours of national electricity demand can be stored in all utility-scale batteries plus all batteries in one million electric cars in America.
13. Batteries produced annually by the Tesla Gigafactory (world's biggest battery factory) can store three minutes worth of annual U.S. electric demand.
14. To make enough batteries to store two day's worth of U.S. electricity demand would require 1,000 years of production by the Gigafactory (world's biggest battery factory).
15. Every $1 billion in aircraft produced leads to some $5 billion in aviation fuel consumed over two decades to operate them. Global spending on new jets is more than $50 billion a year—and rising.
16. Every $1 billion spent on data centers leads to $7 billion in electricity consumed over two decades. Global spending on data centers is more than $100 billion a year—and rising.
Realities about Energy Economics
17. Over a 30-year period, $1 million worth of utility-scale solar or wind produces 40 million and 55 million kWh respectively: $1 million worth of shale well produces enough natural gas to generate 300 million kWh over 30 years.
18. It costs about the same to build one shale well or two wind turbines: the latter, combined, produces 0.7 barrels of oil (equivalent energy) per hour, the shale rig averages 10 barrels of oil per hour.
19. It costs less than $0.50 to store a barrel of oil, or its equivalent in natural gas, but it costs $200 to store the equivalent energy of a barrel of oil in batteries.
20. Cost models for wind and solar assume, respectively, 41 percent and 29 percent capacity factors (i.e., how often they produce electricity). Real-world data reveal as much as ten percentage points less for both. That translates into $3 million less energy produced than assumed over a 20-year life of a 2-MW $3 million wind turbine.
If solar power scaled like computer-tech, a single postage-stamp-size solar array would power the Empire State Building. That only happens in comic books.
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21. In order to compensate for episodic wind/solar output, U.S. utilities are using oil- and gas-burning reciprocating engines (big cruise-ship-like diesels); three times as many have been added to the grid since 2000 as in the 50 years prior to that.
22. Wind-farm capacity factors have improved at about 0.7 percent per year; this small gain comes mainly from reducing the number of turbines per acre leading to a 50 percent increase in average land used to produce a wind-kilowatt-hour.
23. Over 90 percent of America's electricity, and 99 percent of the power used in transportation, comes from sources that can easily supply energy to the economy any time the market demands it.
24. Wind and solar machines produce energy an average of 25 percent–30 percent of the time, and only when nature permits. Conventional power plants can operate nearly continuously and are available when needed.
25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of natural gas & coal, the two fuels that produce 70 percent of U.S. electricity. But electric rates haven't gone down, rising instead 20 percent since 2008. Direct and indirect subsidies for solar and wind consumed those savings.
Energy Physics… Inconvenient Realities
26. Politicians and pundits like to invoke "moonshot" language. But transforming the energy economy is not like putting a few people on the moon a few times. It is like putting all of humanity on the moon—permanently.
27. The common cliché: an energy tech disruption will echo the digital tech disruption. But information-producing machines and energy-producing machines involve profoundly different physics; the cliché is sillier than comparing apples to bowling balls.
28. If solar power scaled like computer-tech, a single postage-stamp-size solar array would power the Empire State Building. That only happens in comic books.
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery the size of a book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner to Asia. That only happens in comic books.
EVs using Chinese batteries will create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing oil-burning engines.
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30. If combustion engines scaled like computers, a car engine would shrink to the size of an ant and produce a thousand-fold more horsepower; actual ant-sized engines produce 100,000 times less power.
31. No digital-like 10x gains exist for solar tech. Physics limit for solar cells (the Shockley-Queisser limit) is a max conversion of about 33 percent of photons into electrons; commercial cells today are at 26 percent.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech. Physics limit for wind turbines (the Betz limit) is a max capture of 60 percent of energy in moving air; commercial turbines achieve 45 percent.
33. No digital-like 10x gains exist for batteries: maximum theoretical energy in a pound of oil is 1,500 percent greater than max theoretical energy in the best pound of battery chemicals.
34. About 60 pounds of batteries are needed to store the energy equivalent of one pound of hydrocarbons.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined, moved and processed for every pound of battery fabricated.
36. Storing the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil, which weighs 300 pounds, requires 20,000 pounds of Tesla batteries ($200,000 worth).
37. Carrying the energy equivalent of the aviation fuel used by an aircraft flying to Asia would require $60 million worth of Tesla-type batteries weighing five times more than that aircraft.
38. It takes the energy equivalent of 100 barrels of oil to fabricate a quantity of batteries that can store the energy equivalent of a single barrel of oil.
39. A battery-centric grid and car world means mining gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, rare earths, cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete.
40. China dominates global battery production with its grid 70 percent coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese batteries will create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing oil-burning engines.
41. One would no more use helicopters for regular trans-Atlantic travel—doable with elaborately expensive logistics—than employ a nuclear reactor to power a train or photovoltaic systems to power a nation.
This article is republished with permission from Economics 21.
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China: Trade Figures Show Potential Improvement, but Recovery Remains Uneven
What Happened: China's trade levels for August showed improvement over July but are still down year over year, Reuters reported on Sept. 7. This comes after China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose for the third straight month in August, although the services PMI dropped for the fifth straight month.
Why It Matters: The August trade and manufacturing PMI data suggest China's export doldrums may have bottomed out, but the services PMI data suggest domestic consumption remains uneven. The data in September-December will be crucial to understanding the sustainability of China's industrial production and consumption recoveries. However, low base effects from the COVID-19 lockdowns of October-December 2022 will obscure trends in yearly data, making month-on-month trade indicators and PMIs key figures to watch. A true recovery (or at least an economic bottoming out) could bode well for East and Southeast Asian economic recoveries, but individual recoveries will depend on export baskets.
Background: China's exports were down 8.8% year over year in August versus a forecasted 9.2% drop and a drop of 14.5% in July, while imports were down 7.3% year over year in August versus a forecasted 9.0% drop and a 12.4% drop in July. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI's new orders sub-index rose for a third month to 50.2, while the new export orders sub-index rose slightly to 46.7, breaking a five-month dip.
Mexico: Morena Nominates Sheinbaum as Presidential Candidate
What Happened: Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum secured the ruling Morena party's presidential nomination with 39.4% of the preferences, El Pais reported on Sept. 6. However, Former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who garnered 25.8% of the preferences, urged Morena to conduct a fresh selection of its 2024 presidential candidate, citing alleged irregularities in the polling process.
Why It Matters: Sheinbaum's win guarantees that the Morena presidential nominee will continue current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's economic and political vision of high spending on welfare and major public infrastructure projects. However, Sheinbaum may pursue more clean energy projects (likely under state-owned energy companies) in adherence to her policies as Mexico City mayor. Lopez Obrador is highly likely to serve as a special advisor to Sheinbaum should she win in 2024 and will likely maintain a high profile in the media in an effort to maintain control over Mexico's political arena. Meanwhile, Ebrard's comments signal that he may break from Morena.
Background: Mexico will hold general elections in June 2024. The Broad Front for Mexico opposition coalition chose Xochitl Galvez as its presidential nominee on Aug. 30, essentially guaranteeing that Mexico will elect its first female president in 2024.
EU, U.K.: Agreement Ends Dispute Over Horizon Science Research Program
What Happened: The British government announced that it will rejoin the European Union's flagship 95.5 billion euro ($103 billion) Horizon science research program, Reuters reported on Sept. 7. Under the deal, the United Kingdom will also join the EU earth observation program Copernicus, but not the bloc's Euratom nuclear research scheme.
Why It Matters: The agreement ends a two-year dispute between the European Union and the United Kingdom over science funding, marking another important step toward closer bilateral relations following the March signing of the Windsor Framework agreement. The deal will further improve ties between leading research hubs in the European Union and the United Kingdom by allowing British researchers to apply for grants and bid for projects under the multi-billion Horizon program through 2027. In a victory for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the United Kingdom will not have to pay for the time it was unable to access the program and will be compensated if its scientists receive less money than the country has contributed.
Background: Under the 2020 EU-U.K. Trade and Cooperation Agreement, the United Kingdom was allowed to continue accessing the Horizon program. However, Brussels eventually blocked the country's membership due to a parallel dispute over post-Brexit trade arrangements. The United Kingdom was one of Horizon's largest beneficiaries before leaving the bloc.
Sub-Saharan Africa: G-20 Expected to Grant Membership to the African Union
What Happened: The Group of 20 is planning to grant permanent membership to the African Union (AU), Reuters reported on Sept. 7.
Why It Matters: AU membership in the G-20 will give African countries struggling with debt a stronger platform from which to voice concerns of the collective Global South. However, the forum is still dominated by rich countries and is unlikely to drastically shift its response to debt relief.
Background: The AU would have the same status as the European Union, which is the only regional bloc with full membership in the G-20.
Nigeria: Court Rejects Challenges to Tinubu's Election, but Opposition Vows to Fight On
What Happened: A Nigerian appeals court dismissed all three petitions challenging the election of President Bola Tinubu, Reuters reported on Sept. 7. The country's two primary opposition leaders — Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party — have said they will appeal the rulings at the Supreme Court.
Why It Matters: The rulings in favor of Tinubu were widely expected, serving as a rubber-stamp on his election and presidency despite legitimate allegations of electoral interference, as is typical in Nigerian elections. While opposition leaders will still likely appeal the rulings and may attempt to incite protests in reaction to the appeals court's dismissals over the coming days, they are unlikely to trigger more widespread unrest given that most Nigerians have accepted the outcome of the election.
Background: Opposition candidates filed legal challenges against Tinubu's election directly after his victory in the Feb. 25 election, but the court has only just begun to read its rulings.
U.S.: California Governor Signs Executive Order Covering AI Usage and Risks
What Happened: California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order to develop a process for evaluating and deploying artificial intelligence (AI) within the state government, Politico reported Sept. 6.
Why It Matters: Though the order's impact thus far is limited largely to California's state government, it is likely the first of a set of patchwork state laws that will regulate AI in the United States. A broader movement across states to adopt similar legislation would help hedge against the risks AI poses to various industries and populations. However, a patchwork system may also lead to confusion and discrepancies in regulations across state lines, posing compliance challenges for businesses, especially those that operate in multiple states. Other challenges to widespread implementation may arise in state courts if California's AI regulations become applicable to the private sector.
Background: The move comes amid the generative AI boom, which has characterized much of 2023 and prompted questions globally about how to best regulate the novel, rapidly growing technology and hedge against its myriad risks while continuing to reap its benefits. Much of this growth in AI is concentrated in California, as the state houses a major tech hub.
U.S.: Senators to Propose Bipartisan Framework for Regulating AI
What Happened: Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Republican Sen. Josh Hawley will unveil a broad framework to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) during a Sept. 12 hearing on AI, The New York Times reported on Sept. 7. The framework includes licensing and auditing requirements for AI, the creation of an independent office to oversee AI, data transparency requirements, safety standards, and the establishment of corporate liability for privacy and civil rights violations.
Why It Matters: It will take months, if not years, for Congress to pass legislation to regulate AI, as multiple parts of the Blumenthal-Hawley framework are likely to be contentious. For instance, Google and IBM have opposed the establishment of an agency for overseeing AI. Nevertheless, state-level regulation of AI will likely progress more quickly, as indicated by California Gov. Gavin Newsom's Sept. 6 executive order to study the risks of generative AI.
Background: Hawley has also criticized Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is organizing the "AI insight forum" for lawmakers, for giving technology executives too much weight in private conversations about AI regulation.
EU, Australia: Europe's Gas Prices Increase as LNG Strikes Begin in Australia
What Happened: Workers at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Australia began industrial action, the Financial Times reported on Sept. 8. Gas futures on Europe's Dutch TTF benchmark rose by 16% to 35.4 euros per megawatt hour ($11.1 MMBtu) in response to the news.
Why It Matters: The price jump highlights the volatility affecting Europe's natural gas markets despite record-high inventories (now at 94% of capacity) amid very tight global supply and demand balances. While Europe barely imports any Australian LNG itself, disruptions to the two key facilities — which together account for 5-7% of global supply — would force Asian buyers to source LNG from outside the region, thus intensifying competition with Europe on the global spot market. There has been little sign of competition picking up so far, mostly thanks to lower-than-usual demand in Asia, but a two-week stoppage should industrial action continue would remove roughly 1 million tons of LNG from the global market. Once the heating season builds demand in Europe and Asia, any future sign of demand or supply shocks may result in severe price spikes.
Background: Workers at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities in Australia will first engage in limited strikes, halting work for up to 11 hours, according to unions. If Chevron and the unions do not reach an agreement by Sept. 14, a complete two-week strike will commence. No further talks are planned for now. Europe relies heavily on global LNG imports to replace missing volumes of Russian pipeline gas following Moscow's supply cut-offs. The market is set to remain extremely tight until 2025, when new significant supplies from the United States and Qatar will come on stream.
Lebanon: Clashes Resume in Ein el-Hilweh Refugee Camp
What Happened: Renewed armed fighting broke out between Islamist militants and members of the secular Palestinian group Fatah in Lebanon's Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp, AP reported on Sept. 8. The clashes erupted after the Islamists refused to turn over suspects in the July assassination of a Fatah official, and at least 20 people have been wounded so far, though no fatalities have been reported.
Why It Matters: The renewed fighting follows a month-long truce between Fatah and the Islamist militants after fighting broke out from July 30 to Aug. 3. Further clashes are likely, as Fatah militants are slated to launch raids to search for suspects. Further fighting may require the Lebanese military to intervene, which would stretch the military's ability to deal with other threats such as sectarian tensions.
Background: Ein el-Hilweh is Lebanon's largest Palestinian refugee camp, and Fatah generally administers its day-to-day affairs (including providing security) under an agreement with the Lebanese government. The camp has been the site of intra-Palestinian clashes in years past.
Global: U.N. Global Stocktake Technical Report Finds Huge Gap Between Climate Action and Goals
What Happened: In its Sept. 8 release of the global stocktake — the first report designed to check in on the progress nations are making toward achieving the Paris Agreement's goals — the United Nations warned that signatories needed "to increase ambition across all fronts, taking an all-of-society approach to make progress towards the Paris Agreement goals and respond to the climate crisis." The Global Stocktake found that emissions levels were inconsistent with modeled pathways toward the Paris Agreement's scenarios for a 1.5 or 2-degree Celsius rise in global temperatures.
Why It Matters: The global stocktake will be a major focal point of negotiations at the 2023 U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from Nov. 30-Dec. 12. However, negotiators will likely struggle to come to a strong agreement on what to do in response to the growing gap between climate ambition and current emissions reduction strategies. The European Union and the West will likely call for more concrete agreements to phase out fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the Global South will likely use the report to pressure Western countries to devote more financial resources to the energy transition and climate change mitigation in poorer countries.
Background: Other key topics under discussion at COP28 are likely to be the loss and damage fund to which attendees agreed in 2022, as well as phasing out fossil fuel emissions.
U.S.: Pegasus Spyware Incident Highlights Risks of Zero-Click Vulnerabilities
What Happened: An unknown threat actor used a zero-click vulnerability to deliver the NSO Group's Pegasus spyware to the Apple device of an employee of a civil society organization in Washington, D.C., according to a report published by Canada-based digital rights group The Citizen Lab on Sept. 7. The hack was purportedly discovered last week and reported to Apple, which has since released a patch for the vulnerability.
Why It Matters: Threat actors have used the NSO Group's zero-click Pegasus spyware (which does not require any interaction from the targeted device) in countless instances to spy on individuals including politicians, business executives, journalists, lawyers and human rights activists globally. This spying can yield compromising information that enables threat actors to coerce or influence targeted individuals, which can undermine free speech, political dissidence and other democratic activities.
Background: The NSO Group has been in operation since 2010 and has licensed Pegasus to multiple foreign law enforcement and intelligence services, purportedly to combat terrorism, organized crime and other national security concerns. In November 2021, the United States government sanctioned the NSO Group and another Israeli spyware firm, citing the widespread misuse of such tools. In March 2023, the White House signed an executive order that restricted the U.S. government from using spyware posing counterintelligence and security risks.
North Korea: New Nuclear-Armed Submarine to Raise South Korea's Deterrence Concerns
What Happened: North Korea's military revealed a nuclear-armed submarine, and state media said the country aims to equip all of its existing diesel-engine, medium-sized submarines with nuclear attack capabilities and to develop nuclear-powered submarines in the future, Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 8.
Why It Matters: If Pyongyang's claims of this vessel's capabilities are accurate, the submarine will enhance North Korea's second strike capability and drive South Korea further into its security partnerships with the United States and Japan. This may result in more U.S. naval shows of force near the peninsula, raising China's threat perception vis-a-vis coastal security. A fully nuclear-armed North Korean submarine fleet would also raise its threat profile to Japan, given these diesel (non-nuclear-powered) submarines would primarily serve as a regional deterrent force.
Background: Pyongyang is working on developing a robust triad of nuclear weapon attack vectors: stationary and mobile land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and aircraft-launched missiles, though this last vector remains relatively underdeveloped.
Ethiopia: Government Expects Surplus Wheat Following Agricultural Initiative
What Happened: Ethiopian wheat output will increase by 27% this season, according to Agriculture Minister Girma Amente, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 8.
Why It Matters: The increase in output is due to a government initiative to boost production and wean Ethiopia off food imports following hikes in global food prices related to the Russia-Ukraine war. While increases in agricultural outputs will aid Ethiopia's human and economic development in the years to come, millions of Ethiopians are still food insecure — and in extreme cases facing starvation — due to regional conflicts and blockades.
Background: The Agriculture Ministry expects a wheat harvest of approximately 19.5 million tons during the current season, compared with 15.4 million tons last season. The government plans to expand the area for wheat production by 37% for the season that began in June, while irrigated wheat will increase by 54% and rain-fed production will increase by 29%.
France: Top Court Approves Abaya, Qamis Ban From Schools
What Happened: France's Conseil D'Etat approved Education Minister Gabriel Attal's decision to ban abayas and qawamis, which are loose clothing items sometimes worn by Muslim pupils, from schools in line with the country's 2004 law on religious clothing in schools, Radio France Internationale reported on Sept. 7.
Why It Matters: The Conseil D'Etat's upholding of the ban, together with the French public's strong support for it, means the government will likely continue to firmly enforce the ban as a means of strengthening its popularity. However, this is likely to prompt tension near schools with a higher-than-average proportion of Muslim pupils, heighten hacktivist threats and the risk of attacks by radicalized individuals, and may also lead to protests in front of French embassies in some Muslim countries. The vocal contestation of the ban by some French Muslims may strengthen support for far-right parties, which could compel the government to tighten an upcoming immigration reform.
Background: Advocacy organization Action for the Rights of Muslims challenged the government's abaya ban in the Conseil D'Etat. While polling from Ifop shows that 81% of the French public approves the ban of abayas and qamis from schools, the government's decision has stirred controversy on social media and in parts of the Muslim world.
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