TheList 6960

The List 6960     TGB

To All,

Good Wednesday Morning September 25, 2024. Same weather different day. Lots going on here inside and out.

A shout out to Admiral Box on his birthday today reminded by some friends/ Bubbas.

Regards,

skip

Make it a good Day

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

This day in Naval and Marine Corps History (thanks to NHHC)

Here is a link to the NHHC website: https://www.history.navy.mil/.   Go here to see the director's corner for all 83 H-Grams 

Today in Naval and Marine Corps History

September 25

1863 Commodore Henry H. Bell reports to Secretary of the Navy Gideon Welles from New Orleans about the yellow fever outbreak onboard steamers coming into port.

1925 USS S-51 sinks after being rammed by SS City of Rome off Block Island, R.I., killing 33 of her crew.

1943 USS Skill (AM 115) is sunk by German submarine (U 593) in Gulf of Salerno. Only 32 of her men survive from the 103 officers and men on board.

1944 USS Searaven (SS 196) is attacked by a Japanese small craft off southwest tip of Etorofu, Kurils. USS Barbel (SS 316) sinks Japanese merchant cargo ship, Bushu Maru, off Togara Gunto. Additionally, USS Guardfish (SS 217) sinks Japanese merchant cargo ship, No.2, Miyakawa Maru, in the Yellow Sea off Chinnampo. Also, on this day,USS Thresher (SS 200) sinks Japanese merchant cargo ship, Nissei Maru, in the Yellow Sea.

1952 USS Taylor (DD 468) is fired on by a shore battery in the vicinity of Wonsan, Korea. Counter-battery fire by USS Taylor silences the enemy guns.

1957 In project Stratoscope, Office of Naval Research obtains sharp photographs of sun's corona from first balloon-borne telescope camera.

1982 USS Houston (SSN 713) is commissioned at Naval Station Norfolk. For two months in1989, the boat participated in the filming of The Hunt for Red October off the coasts of Washington and California.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

Today in World History September 25

 

1396    The last great Christian crusade, led jointly by John the Fearless of Nevers and King Sigismund of Hungary, ends in disaster at the hands of Sultan Bayezid I's Ottoman army at Nicopolis.

1598    In Sweden, King Sigismund is defeated at Stangebro by his uncle Charles.

1775    British troops capture Ethan Allen, the hero of Ticonderoga, when he and a handful of Americans try to invade Canada.

1789    Congress proposes 12 new amendments to the Constitution.

1804    The 12th Amendment is ratified, changing the procedure of choosing the president and vice-president.

1846    American General Zachary Taylor's forces capture Monterey, Mexico.

1909    The first National Aeronautic Show opens at Madison Square Garden.

1915    An allied offensive is launched in France against the German Army.

1918    Brazil declares war on Austria.

1937    German Chancellor Adolf Hitler meets with Italian Premier Benito Mussolini in Munich.

1938    President Franklin Roosevelt urges negotiations between Hitler and Czech President Edvard Benes over the Sudetenland.

1942    The War Labor Board orders equal pay for women in the United States.

1943    The Red Army retakes Smolensk from the Germans who are retreating to the Dnieper River in the Soviet Union.

1959    President Dwight Eisenhower and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev begin Camp David talks.

1974    Scientists warn that continued use of aerosol sprays will cause ozone depletion, which will lead to an increased risk of skin cancer and global weather changes.

1981    Sandra Day O'Connor, the first female Supreme Court Justice, is sworn in.

1983    Maze Prison escape, County Antrim, Northern Ireland; 38 IRA prisoners escape in the largest prison breakout in British history; known among Irish republicans as the Great Escape.

1992    NASA launches Mars Observer probe; it fails 11 months later.

1996    Ireland's last Magdalene laundry closes; begun as asylums to rehabilitate "fallen women," they increasingly took on prison-like qualities.

2008    China launches Shenzhou 7 spacecraft; crew performs China's first extra-vehicular activity (EVA).

2009    US President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy jointly accuse Iran of building a secret nuclear enrichment facility.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

ROLLING THUNDER REMEMBERED Thanks to the Bear … Bear🇺🇸⚓️🐻

OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (1965-1968)…

Thanks to Micro

From Vietnam Air Losses site for Tuesday, September 25

 

September 25th:  https://www.vietnamairlosses.com/loss.php?id=818

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

Thanks to the Bear

I have provided access to archive entries covering Commando Hunt operations for the period November 1968 through mid-September 1969. These posts are permanently available at the following link.

https://www.rollingthunderremembered.com/commando-hunt-post-list/

 

(To remind folks that these are from the Vietnam Air Losses site that Micro put together. You click on the url below and can read what happened each day to the aircraft and its crew. .Micro is the one also that goes into the archives and finds these inputs and sends them to me for incorporation in the List. It is a lot of work and our thanks goes out to him for his effort.

From Vietnam Air Losses site for "for 25 September  

25-Sep:  https://www.vietnamairlosses.com/loss.php?id=818

 Vietnam Air Losses

Access Chris Hobson and Dave Lovelady's work at:  https://www.VietnamAirLosses.com.

 

This is a list of all Helicopter Pilots Who Died in the Vietnam War . Listed by last name and has other info 

https://www.vhpa.org/KIA/KIAINDEX.HTM

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

Maurice was a good friend for many years  Skip

Thanks to Litning

I just got this! "Maurice" was a classmate, good friend, and F8 driver!

Litning

 

-----Original Message-----

From: USNA Class of 1967 <replies@smtp.usna.com>

To: "Mr. Jean P. Phelps, Jr." <litning@cox.net>

Sent: Tue, 24 Sep 2024 6:12 PM

Subject: Sad News

 

Classmates,

I have the sad duty to report the passing of Larry Morris on Sunday, September 22.

I learned of Larry's death from Dave Santoro and Del Giffin. Larry's sister Laurel Morris Bennet had notified both as she knew Del since she lives just 5 miles from Del in Idaho (Meridian/Boise), and Larry had moved about two years ago from NJ to Dillsburg, PA, just a few miles from Dave and Mary Santoro.

Laurel said Larry had fallen down stairs and suffered severe chest injuries and died quickly. As Larry was single he wasn't discovered for over a day.

Larry's wishes were to be cremated and inurned at the USNA columbarium, so Lauren (we as needed) is working with the USNA Memorials coordiantor on arrangements.

Larry's sister Laurel is at 208-880-9518.

I will send more information as we learn it.

As you all may or may not know, Larry had taken up stained glass art as a hobby. Del said he had become very accomplished. Recently he, accompanied by several 1st companymates, donated his piece of glass depicting the '67 1st Company's logo "Caveman"  in a small ceremony to the midshipmen of the 1st Company for their wardroom. A more detailed story will be given by Scribe in the upcoming Shipmate '67 column.

Please keep Larry's family in your prayers.

Dave

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

For all of us that remember 51 Years ago and what we were doing to help make this happen…..skip From The List archives Hand Salute!!!!

Thanks to Eagle

 

One of my most memorable missions from Vietnam was being on BARCAP when the first C 141 came out with the boys on it. 

Hey Fingers has a nice part of this one.

EAGLE

Memories--------------------------------

 

No matter what one thinks of Nixon now - watch this!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=LemllfcAY8A&sns=em

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

Thanks to History Facts

 

Yellow pencils used to be sold as a luxury item.

 

SCIENCE & INDUSTRY

 

Today, yellow pencils are just normal, generic pencils, but when they were popularized in the late 19th century, they were considered the height of luxury. Before then, lacquered pencils were often a sign of low-quality wood that needed to be covered up, and they were usually finished in darker colors such as black or maroon. A decent pencil, meanwhile, would either be plain or varnished wood. But that all changed with the introduction of luxury pencils made with the finest, purest graphite, which came from a mine on the border of China and Siberia.

 

The German pencil manufacturer Faber (now Faber-Castell) was the first company to get its hands on graphite from the region, and it allowed for extremely fine-tuned pencil formulas, with 16 different degrees of hardness and softness. This was a big deal in the pencil world, and Faber boasted in its catalogs that "Siberian graphite" was "a household word amongst artists, engineers, designers and draftsmen generally." Around the same time, pencil-maker Franz von Hardtmuth decided to develop an expensive luxury pencil to compete with Faber's Siberian graphite. He created a pencil with 17 grades of hardness — one more than Faber's — and started dressing it up to bring to market. The new pencil got 14 coats of yellow lacquer and tips sprayed in gold paint, and was named the Koh-I-Noor 1500, after the famed large diamond.

 

Yellow was an auspicious color: It was known as the Chinese color of health and good fortune, so it winked at the sought-after Asian graphite, although it's unclear where Hardtmuth's graphite actually came from. Combined with the pencil's black tip, it also displayed the colors of the Austro-Hungarian flag. The Koh-I-Noor 1500 pencil hit the market in 1888, and, even with the higher price tag, it was a smash hit. Other pencil companies, particularly those eager to associate themselves with Asian graphite, also started painting their pencils yellow; by 1895, even Faber had a "Yellow Siberian" pencil. The American-made Dixon Ticonderoga No. 2 pencil — the yellow one ubiquitous in classrooms today — debuted in 1913.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

A couple from Interesting Facts

The QWERTY Keyboard Was Designed to Prevent Typewriter Jams

Before accidentally deleting a document was the worst thing that could happen to a piece of writing, typewriter jams were feared above all else. A number of brilliant minds did their utmost to alleviate this problem, but it was a newspaper editor in Kenosha, Wisconsin, who had perhaps the most positive impact on how we type today. Christopher Latham Sholes worked on several typewriter models, beginning in 1867, and eventually settled on the "QWERTY" design that is still in use today. (If the name has you confused, look at the first six letters on the top row of your keyboard, left to right.)

If that arrangement seems counterintuitive, it's quite literally by design. This particular array of letters was meant to slow writers down, since one of the many causes of typewriter jams was typing too fast; for instance, the letters "s" and "t" were separated because "st" is among the most common combinations of letters. Seasoned typists eventually got used to the layout and continued to punch out dozens of words per minute anyway, but other advances in typewriter design eventually helped make jams far less common. By the time the modern computer keyboard overtook the typewriter, keyboards were far more durable (though you still wouldn't want to spill a drink on one!). 

 

Couches and Sofas Aren't the Same Thing

Though usually used interchangeably, these are technically two different pieces of furniture — and the distinction lies in the words themselves. "Couch" comes to us from French, namely coucher — "to lie down" — whereas we have the Arabic word suffah to thank for "sofa." In the most traditional sense, a sofa would be a wooden bench that comes complete with blankets and cushions and is intended for sitting. eBay's selling guide used to distinguish between the two by defining a couch as "a piece of furniture with no arms used for lying." Though it may be a distinction without a difference these days, purists tend to think of sofas as a bit more formal and couches as something you'd take a nap on and let your pets hang out on.

 

The Computer Mouse Also Had a Different Animal Name

Whether you think the plural should be mice or mouses — some dictionaries accept both! — there's no denying which animal the ubiquitous device is named after. Or is there? It turns out that early versions were named turtles, as the gadget's hard, protective shell covers the important parts within. (You can even buy ones intentionally shaped like a turtle.) That said, the current name is so well known that it's the same in several languages — many don't even translate it into their own word for "mouse."

 

High Heels Were Originally for Men

High heels have long been a symbol of femininity, but that wasn't always the case. The shoes, which are thought to date all the way back to the 10th century, were invented for a practical rather than sartorial reason: horseback riding. Anyone who's placed their feet in stirrups while sitting atop a noble steed knows that it can be difficult to actually keep your feet inside them, and some enterprising equine enthusiast eventually realized that an extended heel allowed for a more secure fit.

In addition to leisure, horseback riding was a crucial element of warfare, meaning that there was a time when entire armies rode into battle wearing high heels. Eventually people realized that this kind of footwear was pleasing to the eye, and in the 17th century high heels became a gender-neutral fashion statement — especially among those who wanted to show off their upper-class credentials (heels were associated with horses, and only the wealthy tended to own them). As for how heels became linked to women, it wasn't haute couture but rather pin-up photography that brought them back en vogue.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

From the list archives…..Maybe it did not stop???

Project Mkultra: One of the Most Shocking CIA Programs of All Time

 

http://gizmodo.com/project-mkultra-one-of-the-most-shocking-cia-programs-1370236359

Project Mkultra: One of the Most Shocking CIA Programs of All Time When the extent of the U.S. government's domestic spying program was revealed this past summer, many were surprised and outraged: how could a government which so prizes liberty of its citizens covertly collect data on its own people?

Yet, sadly, this is not the first time Uncle Sam, without permission or notice, secretly gathered information on its people and wasn't even close to the greatest atrocity. For that, there are numerous other examples such as when the government intentionally poisoned certain alcohol supplies they knew people would drink, killing over 10,000 American citizens and sickening many thousands others. (Despite this, the program continued for some time, though it was hotly debated in Congress when the death tolls started rolling in.) One other such "interesting" program, was from 1953 to 1964, when the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducted dozens of experiments on the effects of biological and chemical agents on American citizens without their knowledge in Project MKUltra. These covert tests included subjecting the unwitting subjects to hallucinogenic drugs and other chemicals, among other things.

It is difficult to find official documents about this program; however, in 1976 and 1977, the U.S. Senate conducted investigations and even held a joint committee hearing on Project MKUltra, then published much of what was discovered; you will not believe what they found out.

MKULtra's Purpose

According to the hearing report, the project was intended to "develop a capability in the covert use of biological and chemical materials."[1] The motivation was also defensive, in that many were afraid during the Cold War that the Russians and Chinese had already developed weapons in this area. As the project's proponents noted:

The development of a comprehensive capability in this field of covert chemical and biological warfare gives us a thorough knowledge of the enemy's theoretical potential, thus enabling us to defend ourselves against a foe who might not be as restrained in the use of these techniques as we are.[2] Officially authorized in 1953, by 1955, project creep had expanded the CIA's authority under MKUltra to include the following:

Discovery of the following materials and methods [including those]:

which will promote the intoxicating affect of alcohol; which will render the induction of hypnosis easier or otherwise enhance its usefulness; which will enhance the ability of individuals to withstand privation, torture and coercion during interrogation and so called "brain-washing;"

which will produce amnesia for events preceding and during their use; [which will produce] shock and confusion over extended periods of time and capable of surreptitious use; and which will produce physical disablement such as paralysis of the legs, acute anemia, etc.[3] LSD experiments Senator Edward Kennedy dominated the hearing. In his opening remarks, he noted there was:

an "extensive testing and experimentation" program which included covert drug tests on unwitting citizens "at all social levels, high and low, native Americans and foreign." Several of these tests involved the administration of LSD to "unwitting subjects in social situations."[4] For many of these drug tests, especially early on, there were "no medical personnel on hand either to administer the drugs or observe their effects." Often, the randomly selected subjects had "become ill for hours or days, including hospitalization in at least one case."[5] Even more troubling, some of the tests proved lethal, but that did not stop the CIA from continuing their experimentation:

The deaths of two Americans can be attributed to these programs; other participants in the testing programs may still suffer from the residual effects. . . . The fact that they were continued for years after the danger of surreptitious administration of LSD to unwitting individuals was known, demonstrate fundamental disregard for the value of human life.[6] One of these lives belonged to Dr. Frank Olson, himself a researcher with the U.S. Army who studied "developing techniques for offensive use of biological weapons . . . [and] biological research for the CIA."[7] Along with a group of 9 other such scientists, he attended a conference in a cabin at Deep Creek Lake, Maryland in November 1953. Once there, ironically, CIA operatives spiked the researchers' Cointreau with LSD. Only after the scientists had finished their drinks were they informed that they had been drugged.[8] Most of the researchers handled the experience well and had no aftereffects, but not Dr. Olson. He never recovered from the ordeal and shortly after the experiment, began to show "symptoms of paranoia and schizophrenia."[9] Dr. Olson's superior and the CIA who ran the experiment arranged for him to get treatment in New York City. While spending the night in a hotel room with the CIA officer, and after requesting a wake-up call for the next morning, Dr. Olson somehow managed to fall to his death. As the CIA officer (Lashbrook) reported:

At approximately 2:30 a.m. Saturday, November 28, Lashbrook was awakened by a loud "crash of glass." . . . . Olson "had crashed through the closed window blind and the closed window and he fell to his death from the window of our room on the 10th floor."[10] There is no indication that any investigation of foul play, particularly by the CIA officer (who was both responsible for the experiment and alone in the hotel room with Olson) was ever conducted.

Universities, Prisons and Hospitals Conducted Experiments In the hearing, Senator Kennedy noted that many otherwise respectable institutions were fraudulently incorporated into MKUltra projects:

What we are basically talking about is . . . the perversion and corruption of many of our outstanding research centers in this country, with CIA funds, where some of our top researchers were unwittingly involved in research sponsored by the Agency in which they had no knowledge of the background or the support for[11] According to the hearing report, "eighty-six universities or institutions were involved,"[12] and "185 non-government researchers and assistants" worked on these projects.[13] "Physicians, toxicologists, and other specialists in mental [and] narcotics" were lured into MKUltra through the provision of grants that were "made under ostensible research foundation auspices, thereby concealing the CIA's interest from the specialist's institution."[14] For some of the 12 hospitals that participated in Project MKUltra, tests were conducted on terminal cancer patients – presumably because the experiments were anticipated to have long-lasting detrimental, if not lethal, effects.[15] Sadly, to get the hospitals (and perhaps the patients) to agree to these experiments, the CIA often paid the institution. For example, Subproject 23, authorized in August 1955, worked as follows:

The project engineer . . . authorized the contractor to pay the hospital's expenses of certain persons suffering from incurable cancer for the privilege of studying the effects of these chemicals during their terminal illnesses.[16] Likewise, many of the experiments conducted at the three prisons were done secretly: "We also know now that some unwitting testing took place on criminal sexual psychopaths." [17] Not all testing was done unwittingly, although that did not make it any more ethical. For example, in a prison experiment conducted by the National Institute of Mental Health Addiction Research Center at the Lexington Rehabilitation Center (a prison for convicted drug addicts), prisoners who volunteered to participate in a hallucinogenic drug experiment were promised (and received) doses of "the drug of their addiction."[18] Miscellaneous Other Experiments An unknown number of other experiments in "such areas as effects of electro-shock, harassment techniques for offensive use . . [and] gas propelled sprays and aerosols" to be used as "assassination delivery systems" were also being conducted.[19] In addition, MKUltra scientists were authorized to research "additional avenues to the control of human behavior" including "radiation . . .[and] paramilitary devices and materials."[20] Heinous Covert Experiments: By the Numbers Project MKUltra consisted of 149 subprojects "many of which appear to have some connection with research into behavioral modification, drug acquisition and testing or administering drugs surreptitiously,"[21] including as follows:

"6 subprojects involving tests on unwitting subjects were conducted."

8 subprojects involving hypnosis, including 2 that also used drugs were performed.

7 subprojects included the use of drugs or chemicals.

4 subprojects used "magician's art . . . e.g., surreptitious delivery of drug-related materials."

9 subprojects studied sleep research (read: deprivation) and psychotherapy's influence on behavior.

6 subprojects studied the effects on human tissue of "exotic pathogens and the capability to incorporate them in effective delivery systems."[22] The CIA Lost or Destroyed All Records of Project MKUltra Sadly, but not surprisingly, almost no records remain of the 10 years of covert activity. As Senator Kennedy noted:

Perhaps most disturbing of all was the fact that the extent of experimentation on human subjects was unknown. The records of all these activities were destroyed in 1973, at the instruction of then CIA Director Richard Helms.[23] Notably, however, some records were overlooked during the CIA's destruction because new records were found in 1977, as noted by Senator Kennedy:

We believed that the record, incomplete as it was, was as complete as it was going to be. Then one individual, through a Freedom of Information request, accomplished what two U.S. Senate committees could not. He spurred the agency into finding additional records . . . . The records reveal a far more extensive series of experiments than had previously been thought.[24] Nonetheless, these records still leave an incomplete record of the program.

No Accountability

Two lawsuits arising out of MKUltra activities made it to the Supreme Court, but both protected the government over citizen's rights:

In 1985, the Court held in CIA vs. Simms that the names of the institutions and researchers who participated in Project MKUltra were exempt from revelation under the Freedom of Information Act due to the CIA's need to protect its "intelligence sources."

In 1987, in United States v. Stanley, the Court held that a serviceman who had volunteered for a chemical weapons experiment, but who was actually tested with LSD, was barred from bringing a claim under the Federal Tort Claims Act.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

Thanks to Mud

    This is an all time favorite

S/F,

 - Mud

 In a message dated 9/22/2021 7:15:30 AM Central Standard Time, xyz@aol.com writes:

 

    This is indeed worth about two minutes to read.  I think this comes under the heading, "Lest We Forget".  Robert E. Lee was undoubtedly the most loved general by those under his command in this country's history.

Subject: Robert E. Lee

Robert E Lee is one of very few cadets to pass through the US Military Academy at West Point without a single demerit. In the Mexican War General Winfield Scott called him "the greatest soldier I've ever seen." As an Army Engineer he re-routed the Mississippi River and saved the city of St Louis. When he inherited slaves from his father in law, he educated them and set them free, and he referred to slavery as "a political and moral evil". He turned down Lincoln's offer to Command the US Army that would invade the South and his home State of Virginia even though leading that Army would have certainly brought him international fame and likely the presidency. He instead offered his sword to Virginia and fought against that invasion for four years leading an Army that was vastly outnumbered, out supplied and out fed. After the war, as the most beloved figure on either side of the war, he turned down all of the opportunities that would have enriched him by refusing to sell his family name. He chose instead to take a job with meager pay at Washington College because he knew that rebuilding the country meant that we needed to raise men of high honor and character. His first act as President of the College was to build a Chapel.

On Lee's last visit to Richmond, a lady approached General Lee with an infant in her arms and asked "Would you please hold my baby?" General Lee took the child, looked the woman in the eye and said "you must teach him to deny himself." Biographer Douglas Southall Freeman pointed out that this one statement characterized the entirety of how General Lee lived.

As the end of his life was approaching Robert E Lee was asked, with all of his accomplishments, what should his headstone say. He answered "that I am a poor sinner, trusting in Christ alone for my salvation."

That a monument to this man has been taken down is a monument itself. The barren space where his memorial stood is a testament to the depraved depths to which the morality and character of our society has fallen.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

This Day in U S Military History

25 September

1789 – The first Congress of the United States approves 12 amendments to the U.S. Constitution, and sends them to the states for ratification. The amendments, known as the Bill of Rights, were designed to protect the basic rights of U.S. citizens, guaranteeing the freedom of speech, press, assembly, and exercise of religion; the right to fair legal procedure and to bear arms; and that powers not delegated to the federal government were reserved for the states and the people. Influenced by the English Bill of Rights of 1689, the Bill of Rights was also drawn from Virginia's Declaration of Rights, drafted by George Mason in 1776. Mason, a native Virginian, was a lifelong champion of individual liberties, and in 1787 he attended the Constitutional Convention and criticized the final document for lacking constitutional protection of basic political rights. In the ratification process that followed, Mason and other critics agreed to approve the Constitution in exchange for the assurance that amendments would immediately be adopted. In December 1791, Virginia became the 10th of 14 states to approve 10 of the 12 amendments, thus giving the Bill of Rights the two-thirds majority of state ratification necessary to make it legal. Of the two amendments not ratified, the first concerned the population system of representation, while the second prohibited laws varying the payment of congressional members from taking effect until an election intervened. The first of these two amendments was never ratified, while the second was finally ratified more than 200 years later, in 1992.

1804 – The 12th Amendment was ratified. The Twelfth Amendment (Amendment XII) to the United States Constitution provides the procedure for electing the President and Vice President. It replaced Article II, Section 1, Clause 3, which provided the original procedure by which the Electoral College functioned. Problems with the original procedure arose in the elections of 1796 and 1800. The Twelfth Amendment refined the process whereby a President and a Vice President are elected by the electors of the Electoral College. The amendment was proposed by the Congress on December 9, 1803

1948 – Iva Toguri D'Aquino (b.1916), a Japanese-American suspected of being wartime radio propagandist "Tokyo Rose," arrived in SF aboard the General Hodges and was taken away by FBI agents. On Sep 9, 1949, she was found guilty of speaking into a microphone concerning the loss of US ships. She was sentenced to 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine. She was released in 1956 and pardoned by Pres. Ford in 1977.

1959 – A US Navy P5M seaplane that had ditched off the Oregon coast was located through radio contact by a U.S. Coast Guard UF-1G Albatross aircraft. After sighting 10 survivors in two rafts 110 miles off shore, the Albatross crew directed the CGC Yocona to the scene, where a successful night rescue was made.

 

Medal of Honor Citations for Actions Taken This Day

 

RICKENBACKER, EDWARD V. (Air Mission)

Rank and organization: First Lieutenant, U.S. Army Air Corps, 94th Aero Squadron, Air Service. Place and date: Near Billy, France, 25 September 1918. Entered service at: Columbus, Ohio. Born: 8 October 1890, Columbus, Ohio. G.O. No.: 2, W.D., 1931. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity above and beyond the call of duty in action against the enemy near Billy, France, 25 September 1918. While on a voluntary patrol over the lines, 1st Lt. Rickenbacker attacked 7 enemy planes (5 type Fokker, protecting two type Halberstadt). Disregarding the odds against him, he dived on them and shot down one of the Fokkers out of control. He then attacked one of the Halberstadts and sent it down also.

 

*NEW, JOHN DURY

Rank and organization: Private First Class, U.S. Marine Corps. Born: 12 August 1924, Mobile, Ala. Accredited to: Alabama. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving with the 2d Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division, in action against enemy Japanese forces on Peleliu Island, Palau Group, 25 September 1944. When a Japanese soldier emerged from a cave in a cliff directly below an observation post and suddenly hurled a grenade into the position from which 2 of our men were directing mortar fire against enemy emplacements, Pfc. New instantly perceived the dire peril to the other marines and, with utter disregard for his own safety, unhesitatingly flung himself upon the grenade and absorbed the full impact of the explosion, thus saving the lives of the 2 observers. Pfc. New's great personal valor and selfless conduct in the face of almost certain death reflect the highest credit upon himself and the U.S. Naval Service. He gallantly gave his life for his country.

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

AMERICAN AEROSPACE EVENTS for September 25, FIRSTS, LASTS, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS. THANKS TO HAROLD "PHIL" MYERS CHIEF HISTORIAN AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE AGENCY

 25 September

1918: MEDAL OF HONOR. While on a voluntary patrol, Lt Edward V. Rickenbacker attacked seven German aircraft near Billy, France. Despite the odds, he dived on them and shot one of the Fokkers out of control and then attacked one of the Halberstadts and also shot it down. For this action, he later received the Medal of Honor (see 6 November 1930). (4) (24)

1920: Harry E. Honeywell won the Birmingham National Balloon Race by landing at Chatham, Ontario, for a distance of 699 miles. (24)

1932: Through 27 September, Lt Cmdr Thomas G. W. Settle and Lt Wilfred Bushnell (USN) participated in an international balloon race. They set a FAI distance record of 963.124 miles for subclass A-7, A-8, and A-9 balloons (1,600-2,200; 2,200-3,000; and 3,000-4,000 cubic meters) by flying their balloon traveled from Basle, Switzerland, to Daugieliski, Poland. (9) (24)

1950: KOREAN WAR. FEAF flew flare missions over Seoul all night, which allowed USMC night fighters to attack N. Korean troops fleeing the city. FEAF Combat Cargo Command delivered a battalion of 187th Airborne Regiment paratroopers to Kimpo to protect the U.S. Army's X Corps' northern flank as it moved out from Inchon. (28)

1951: KOREAN WAR. Nearly 100 MiG-15s attacked 36 F-86s flying a fighter sweep mission over the Sinanju area. Sabre pilots destroyed five MiGs in aerial combat, the daily high for the month. (28)

1957: First TM-76A Mace missile flown from the Air Force Missile Development Center at Holloman AFB to Wendover AFB, Utah, by overland test corridor.

1958: Capt Ronald J. Layton flew an F-101 Voodoo 2,000 miles from Bermuda Island to Fort Worth in 3 hours 9 minutes to set a record for nonstop, nonrefueled flight in a supersonic jet. (24) The 703 SMW, the first Titan I unit, activated at Lowry AFB. (6)

1960: Cmdr John F. Davis (USN) flew an F4H-1 Phantom II to 1,390 MPH for 100 kilometers over a closed-circuit course. He beat the existing world record by more than 200 MPH.

1974: The Northrop F-5F two-place fighter made a 43-minute first flight at Edwards AFB, during which the aircraft reached Mach 0.8 and 43,000 feet.

1981: A B-52G, with the Offensive Avionics System, arrived at Edwards AFB for Integrated Weapons System testing. (3)

1997: The OC-135B treaty verification aircraft flew over Edwards AFB. The specialized aircraft, from Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, and manned by a joint USAF and Turkish crew, conducted the overflight sortie as part of a test run for the Open Skies program as part of the international Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). (3)

1997: Astronaut David A. Wolf, a former Indiana Air Guard flight surgeon, launched into orbit on the Space Shuttle Atlantis (STS-86). He then served as a long duration crewmember on the Russian MIR Space Station, returning to earth on the Space Shuttle Endeavour (STS-89) on 31 January 1998. It was his second space flight. (32)

2007: FIRST MQ-9 REAPER MISSION. The MQ-9 Reaper flew its first operational mission in Afghanistan for Operation ENDURING FREEDOM. The Reaper, a larger and heavily-armed brother of the MQ-1 Predator, provided intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities and an ability to attack time-sensitive targets quickly and precisely. Like the Predator, the Air Force launched, recovered, and maintained the Reaper at deployed locations, while the pilots and sensor operators at Creech AFB, Nev., remotely operated the aircraft. By this date, Reaper operators had not dropped weapons on enemy positions. (AFNEWS, "Reaper UAV Now Flying in Afghanistan," 11 Oct 2007).

 

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

Thanks to Brett…A trip around the world's happenings

 

Stratfor snippets - Russia/China/Japan, China/U.S, France, UAE, Philippines, Nigeria, Germany, Ukraine/U.S., Kenya, Ghana, UAE/U.S., U.S./Mexico, Bolivia, Somalia, Russia/Ukraine, China

 

Russia, China, Japan: Military Incursions Forestall Efforts to Ease Tensions

What Happened: A raft of recent Chinese and Russian air and sea incursions near Japanese territory have triggered diplomatic rebukes and the scrambling of Japanese military assets, Jiji reported on Sept. 23. The latest incident involved a Russian aircraft entering Japan's airspace near Hokkaido three times on Sept. 23, marking the first such incursion since 2019.

Why It Matters: Despite Tokyo recently sending delegations to China to lower tensions, and despite Beijing's lifting of a fish import ban on Japan last week, these military incursions by China and Russia will likely sully efforts to ease China-Japan tensions. These incidents come just ahead of Japan's Sept. 27 election for the next prime minister and thus will likely further drive the public to support a candidate that will defend Japan's national security. However, there is still a chance for a modest easing of China-Japan tensions, especially if former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi wins the premiership or if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency again, as Koizumi has commented on the necessity of holding talks with China, and Trump's transactionalist approach to military partnerships would increase Tokyo's sense of the need to balance relations with China.

Background: On Sept. 13, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft circumnavigated Japan, the first such instance since 2019. On Sept. 18, a Chinese aircraft carrier entered Japan's territorial waters for the first time in Okinawa prefecture. On Aug. 26, a Chinese surveillance aircraft violated Japanese territorial airspace for the first time, off of southwestern Nagasaki prefecture.

 

China, U.S.: Washington Announces Ban on Sensitive Chinese Technology in Vehicles

What Happened: The U.S. Commerce Department will propose a new rule on Sept. 23 banning the use of vehicle connectivity systems — including Bluetooth, cellular, satellite and WiFi modules — and automated driving systems produced by entities with "sufficient nexus to [China] or Russia," the White House said in a fact sheet published the same day. The restrictions on software would take effect in Model Year 2027, while the restrictions on hardware would take effect in Model Year 2030 or on Jan. 1, 2029, for vehicles without a model year.

Why It Matters: Although public comment may lead to modified timelines and coverages, the ban is likely to go into effect, demonstrating that Washington's national security concerns about Chinese technology are broadening throughout critical and emerging technologies and infrastructure. The United States will likely announce similar rules — which go well beyond tariffs — in other sectors, including parts of the transportation and communications sectors. Washington is also likely to lobby its allies and partners globally to implement similar restrictions, similar to the way the United States has pressured them to restrict the use of Huawei 5G equipment in their mobile networks. China will likely retaliate against the ban, possibly by starting its own security review of U.S. products in vehicles. While Beijing generally avoids taking retaliatory measures that hurt its economy, pressuring foreign automakers dovetails with China's strategy to boost domestic auto production, giving China an added incentive to retaliate.

Background: The software ban covers both vehicle connectivity systems and ADS software, while the hardware ban covers certain VCS hardware equipment. The ban builds on an executive order earlier in 2024 aiming to strengthen U.S. cybersecurity at ports where Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes are used, and it also compliments tariffs on such cranes.

 

France: New Cabinet Meets for First Time, Promises Austerity Measures

What Happened: French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's new Cabinet (which was announced on Sept. 21 and consists mostly of conservative and center-right politicians) met for the first time, AP reported on Sept. 23. On Sept. 22, Barnier told France 2 that his government would prioritize restoring France's public finances by cutting spending and increasing taxes, though not for "people with low incomes, or wage earners, or the middle-income class."

Why It Matters: Having chosen his Cabinet members, Barnier's next challenge will be to deliver his general policy speech to the National Assembly on Oct. 1, when he is expected to unveil his plan for a 2025 budget, although some media reports claim the speech could be moved to Oct. 9. While Barnier has already hinted that he will increase taxes, this is a delicate issue for some members of his government (most notably the conservative Les Republicains party) who are opposed to widespread tax hikes. In the meantime, spending cuts will also prove problematic because the left-wing opposition, as well as unions and other segments of the French electorate, would likely protest them. Against this backdrop, there is a real chance that the National Assembly fails to agree on a budget, which would force Macron to take unilateral action to bypass the legislature to avoid a government shutdown, which would come at the expense of significant social unrest.

Background: France held early legislative elections in June and July, which resulted in a fragmented National Assembly without a clear majority. After weeks of negotiations, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as prime minister, with the main goal of reducing France's fiscal deficit, which reached 5.5% of gross domestic product in 2023, while government debt currently exceeds 110% of GDP. Since Barnier's appointment, the left-wing opposition has threatened to trigger a no-confidence motion against the new prime minister.

 

UAE: Abu Dhabi in Talks With Samsung, TSMC on Building Semiconductor Fabrication Plants

What Happens: The United Arab Emirates is courting South Korea's Samsung and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, to build advanced semiconductor fabrication plants in the Gulf nation, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 23. Separately, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is set to visit the White House on Sept. 23 to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden, and artificial intelligence is expected to be one of the top items on the agenda, as the United States has expressed concerns about the United Arab Emirates' relationship with China and Chinese AI companies.

Why It Matters: The construction of advanced fabrication plants that the United Arab Emirates could use for AI and other high-tech purposes would be a boon for the country's long-term economic development and diversification strategy, which focuses on technological development. The United Arab Emirates' large domestic energy reserves make the country attractive for data processing and semiconductor fabrication plants, but the country will need to overcome limited water resources and labor talent pools. The United Arab Emirates' high investment potential from its sovereign wealth funds has also led AI leaders like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to court the country for investing in ambitious AI and chipmaking projects, like Altman's desired multi-trillion dollar initiative for data centers and semiconductor fabrication plants to underpin AI's growth.

Background: TSMC executives reportedly recently visited the United Arab Emirates to discuss building a semiconductor fabrication plant comparable to its most advanced facilities in Taiwan. Samsung senior officials have also recently visited the country.

 

Philippines: 2025 Defense Budget Slashed

What Happened: The Philippine House of Representatives approved the 2025 defense budget at $4.5 billion, a reduction from 2024, the South China Morning Post reported on Sept. 23. The Philippines will reduce all aspects of military spending in 2025 except for support and logistics, which will gain funding, and research and development, which will stay the same.

Why It Matters: The reductions will not immediately impact the Philippines' South China Sea dispute with China, but they may raise medium- and long-term concerns. For example, the new budget exclusively allocates funds to pay down existing systems, not to order additional hardware, which could hamper Manila's capacity to effectively monitor and respond to incursions by Chinese vessels as the dispute evolves. The lack of funds will also disrupt the country's military modernization program, making the acquisition of big-ticket items like 40 multirole fighter jets less likely, as well as impeding infrastructure, logistics and fortification upgrades. Additionally, the slashed budget speaks to Manila's inherent fiscal constraints as it reorients its military doctrine and posture from an inward counter-insurgency focus to an outward stance to oppose China. This development also exposes the Philippines' overreliance on the United States for defense procurement as it awaits a proposed U.S. bill that could grant it $2.5 billion in defense aid.

Background: The Philippines' Defense Ministry proposed an approximately $5.2 billion defense budget in July. The 2024 defense budget was around $5.5 billion. The U.S. Senate introduced in April a bipartisan bill proposing to provide the Philippines with $500 million per year for five years, but the bill remains in legislative limbo.

 

Nigeria: Ruling APC Declared Winner of Edo State Election, PDP Rejects Results

What Happened: Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission, or INEC, announced that the candidate for the ruling All Progressives Congress party, or APC, had won Edo state's Sept. 21 gubernatorial election, The Punch reported on Sept. 22. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party, or PDP, rejected the election results, citing widespread irregularities in the conduct of the election and the counting of votes, and PDP supporters held demonstrations in Benin City on Sept. 22.

Why It Matters: The PDP will likely challenge the outcome of the vote in court, but the precedent of Nigeria's 2023 elections suggests that a cancellation or rerun of the gubernatorial election is unlikely. PDP supporters will likely stage additional demonstrations over the coming days, possibly triggering a crackdown from security forces. The APC's ability to secure control of Edo state will help President Bola Tinubu consolidate his position within Nigeria's power structure and shore up his patronage network, which will provide his administration political space to maintain his current pace of economic reforms, such as the progressive removal of fuel subsidies.

Background: The INEC's official results show that the APC gathered 291,667 votes against 247,274 for the PDP. Voting irregularities have included allegations of widespread vote-buying by the APC, voter intimidation and suppression, as well as Nigerian police expelling electoral observers from the INEC's vote-counting center in Benin City.

 

Germany: SPD Scrapes Past AfD in Brandenburg State Elections

What Happened: Germany's incumbent center-left Social Democratic Party, or SPD, made a last-minute comeback in Brandenburg state's Sept. 22 election, winning 30.9% of votes, narrowly followed by the opposition far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, with 29.2%, DW reported on Sept. 23. Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party, or FDP, and the Greens (the other members of Germany's federal governing coalition, besides the SPD) failed to enter Brandenburg's state parliament after falling below the 5% threshold.

Why It Matters: The election results are more indicative of a rejection of the AfD than of support for the SPD, signaling the unpopularity of the federal government ahead of Germany's October 2025 federal election. The SPD's narrow win in Brandenburg will provide SPD member German Chancellor Olaf Scholz a temporary reprieve from party pressure, but the SPD will likely increasingly push him to make way for an alternative candidate less affiliated with the coalition government as the election approaches. Germany's popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is the most likely candidate to take his place. In the meantime, Scholz must contend with a nationally growing AfD and infighting in the governing coalition, which has grown after the FDP blamed its recent state election losses on the weakness of the governing coalition, warning it may withdraw before the end of 2024.

Background: After weeks of polling at around 20%, the SPD was expected to come second in Brandenburg's election. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance — Reason and Fairness party, or BSW, came in third with 13.5% of the vote, ahead of the Christian Democratic Union, which had its worst result in state history at 12.1%. The SPD will thus default to a coalition with the BSW, as parties continue to unanimously exclude the AfD from coalitions. The state elections drew a record-high voter turnout of 72.9%.

 

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Will Share 'Victory Plan' During U.S. Visit

What Happened: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the United States for an extended visit, where he will present a "victory plan" to U.S. President Joe Biden on Sept. 26, The Kyiv Independent reported on Sept. 22. The plan reportedly has four main points, including continued international financial assistance, the continuation of the Ukrainian army's operation in Russia's Kursk region, and the delivery of specific modern weapon systems to Ukraine that the West is currently not supplying.

Why It Matters: The plan will likely push for more U.S. support to secure Kyiv's battlefield position and increase its negotiating leverage over Russia in the long term, underscoring the impossibility of any serious peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months. Most essential to the plan will be a "security guarantee" from NATO partners, either through a concrete plan toward membership or bilateral guarantees analogous to those included in NATO membership, until Ukraine enters the alliance formally. However, Ukraine and Washington are unlikely to make significant progress on this topic for the foreseeable future.

Background: Zelensky said Biden will be the first foreign leader to see the plan in its entirety, but Zelensky will also discuss the plan with presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and members of Congress. On June 13, Biden and Zelensky signed a bilateral security agreement in which the United States agreed to "consult" Kyiv in the event of a future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, but the agreement did not include security guarantees.

 

Kenya: Censure Motion Filed Against Deputy President Gachagua

What Happened: Senator for the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition Danson Mungatana introduced a censure motion against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Nation reported on Sept. 23. This comes after Gachagua urged President William Ruto to prevent a looming impeachment motion against him or face the fracturing of the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Why It Matters: The censure motion will increase tensions between Gachagua and Ruto, but unlike an impeachment motion it cannot result in Gachagua being removed from office. Nonetheless, the censure motion will enable Ruto and allies to assess the balance of power in the Senate between pro-Ruto and pro-Gachagua lawmakers, and it raises the likelihood of impeachment against Gachagua before the 2027 general election. In the short term, Ruto will likely leverage the censure motion to discourage his allies from introducing an impeachment motion against Gachagua, as the start of an impeachment procedure could undermine Ruto's ability to pass fiscal consolidation measures that the International Monetary Fund may request to complete the seventh review of Kenya's 2021 IMF support program. The launch of an impeachment motion against Gachagua would carry an elevated risk splitting Kenya Kwanza, which would make Ruto heavily dependent on the Orange Democratic Movement party, or ODM, to pass legislation in the National Assembly, potentially delaying policymaking, as the ODM could condition its support for Ruto on specific policy concessions.

Background: Tensions between Ruto and Gachagua have been ongoing for over a year but escalated following Ruto's Cabinet reshuffle in July, which included leading ODM figures in the government. Gachagua has sought to position himself as the leader of the influential Mount Kenya region, and his allies have claimed that the region was underrepresented in the new Cabinet.

Ghana: At Least 42 Demonstrators Arrested Amid Clashes With Police

What Happened: The Ghanaian police confirmed the arrest of 42 protesters from the Democracy Hub civil society group following clashes with security forces during three days of protests, according to a Sept. 22 police statement posted on X (formerly Twitter). The protesters were accused of unlawfully blocking roads, damaging property, attacking officers and causing significant disruption.

Why It Matters: While the three-day protests have ended, unresolved grievances related to corruption, poor public services and the arrest of protesters will likely fuel anti-government sentiment. Future protests will grow more likely ahead of the Dec. 7 general election and would likely provoke another police crackdown and arrests, as seen in recent demonstrations. Protest activities, including roadblocks, would likely cause significant delays for travelers, especially as Ghana approaches the peak tourist season in December, potentially disrupting supply chains.

Background: Democracy Hub organized the Sept. 21-23 protests to highlight various socio-economic issues in Ghana, including unemployment, corruption, and the need for judicial independence and enhanced public service delivery.

 

UAE, U.S.: United Arab Emirates Becomes "Major Defense Partner" of the United States

What Happened: Following the meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and the United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Biden recognized the United Arab Emirates as a "major defense partner" and expanded military cooperation, including through joint training and exercises amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Al Jazeera reported Sept. 23.

Why It Matters: The designation will likely further increase U.S. military resources and training to the United Arab Emirates to increase the United Arab Emirates's capabilities; however, the United Arab Emirates is unlikely to align with and support the United States on its regional military operations that involve confronting Iranian regional allies and proxies for fear of retaliation. Within the next few years, the United Arab Emirates will likely be elevated to strategic trade authorization tier 1 or 2 status, which will enable it to have wider access to U.S. military and dual-use technologies. This designation is a further sign that the Biden administration will deprioritize the United Arab Emirates's human rights records in favor of boosting military cooperation and increasing support. With such signaling that U.S. military aid will likely come with fewer conditions, the United Arab Emirates may resume discussions for the purchase of F-35 fighter jets. Furthermore, the designation will likely incentivize the United Arab Emirates to increase research and development investment for joint military technologies with the United States.

Background: The United Arab Emirates is the second country to receive this designation from the United States after India was designated as a "major defense partner" in 2016. The U.S. military has around 5,000 personnel at the Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi. Nevertheless, the United Arab Emirates has previously restricted U.S. operations based out of its airbase; in February 2024, the United Arab Emirates restricted the United States from conducting retaliatory strikes on Iranian regional allies and proxies from the Al Dhafra Air Base out of concern that the United Arab Emirates would be targeted in response.

 

Germany: FDP Chief Lindner Warns of 'Autumn of Decisions,' Hints at Coalition Collapse

What Happened: Free Democratic Party (FDP) chairman and current finance minister Christian Lindner announced an "autumn of decisions" that could include his party exiting the coalition should cooperation with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Greens continue to fail on immigration, economic growth and the federal budget by Dec. 21, Euractiv reported Sept. 23. The FDP is divided over these red lines and timelines: Vice Chairman Kubicki advocates for a stricter two to three-week deadline, while others oppose it, calling it "political suicide."

Why It Matters: The FDP will increasingly face a conflict between the courage to remain in government and fulfill its responsibilities and the courage to leave to protect its policy integrity. This tension is likely to come to a head by the end of the year or even sooner if internal disagreements worsen. On the one hand, the FDP could continue in the coalition until next year's federal elections in September, ceding to policy stalemate as well as poor polling that would likely result in no longer being part of the next Bundestag. An FDP exit from the coalition is more likely, however, as the party hopes that their core voter base of medium-sized businesses will appreciate their boldness, rewarding them with votes that would help them cross the 5% threshold to join the Bundestag. At this stage, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would be able to continue governing with a minority in parliament but could call early elections to escape policy paralysis. In the meantime, the FDP's governing partners — the center-left SPD and the Greens — are unlikely to yield to the FDP's pressure, for both stand significantly better in national polling. SPD Chancellor Scholz's calculus will rather be more readily informed by pressure from the highest nationally-polling center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that offers the SPD its best prospects of remaining in a governing coalition until next year as parties continue to unanimously exclude the prospect of coalescing with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Background: This is not the first time the FDP has toyed with the idea of leaving the coalition, although it is the first time public demands have been made. These demands come on the heels of crushing defeats in three consecutive state elections in the East, where the FDP lost all its parliamentary seats. At the national level, FDP polling stands at 4%, which is below the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag.

 

U.S., Mexico: Trump Threatens Tariffs on John Deere for Moving Production to Mexico

What Happened: At a campaign event, former U.S. President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to place 200% tariffs on John Deere equipment made in Mexico that was previously made in the United States, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 23. On Sept. 24, Trump is expected to call for foreign companies to move manufacturing to the United States or be subject to large tariffs, adding that he will personally recruit companies to move manufacturing to the United States.

Why It Matters: If Trump wins the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, he will gain significant leeway when it comes to investigating foreign countries' and companies' behaviors and setting tariffs as a remedy. However, these tools are designed to place tariffs on individual countries or a set of goods, not on specific companies. This limitation means that if Trump tries to place tariffs on John Deere's products — or any other company's — simply because they are manufactured outside the United States, the tariffs would be unlikely to survive a court challenge. As a result, Trump would likely focus on placing tariffs on a larger set of imported goods that cover those companies' — and other companies' — goods. Regardless, Trump's criticism of manufacturing in Mexico increases the already high likelihood that July 2026 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement negotiations would be contentious if Trump is elected president. While the overall agreement would likely survive negotiations under a Trump administration, Trump could trigger the withdrawal process to increase negotiating leverage against Canada and Mexico, driving up uncertainty for companies looking to expand investment in those countries.

Background: Unlike during his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump has not made broad tariff threats against Mexico or frequently threatened to pull out of the free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. Instead, his rhetoric has focused on Chinese vehicles produced in Mexico. Since the agreement was initially signed in 2018, the U.S.-Mexico bilateral trade in goods deficit has ballooned from $77.7 billion to $152.5 billion in 2023.

 

Bolivia: Unrest and Political Instability Risks To Increase Amid Protests

What Happened: Former Bolivian President Evo Morales gathered thousands of protesters in La Paz after a 190-kilometer-long (118-mile-long) march and gave President Luis Arce 24 hours to make Cabinet changes and address the country's socio-economic crisis, El Deber reported on Sept. 24. Pro- and anti-government demonstrators clashed at least four times during the week-long march, and Morales said demonstrations will continue as long as demands remain unmet.

Why It Matters: Morales will continue to leverage his popularity to pressure Arce to address economic issues and let him run for president in November 2025. However, Arce will remain unable to address the country's shortages of fuel, medicine and dollars amid persisting legislative gridlock in Congress, which will fuel growing demonstrations and political instability in the coming months. The increased tension between pro- and anti-government groups is likely to result in occasional clashes and harsh police repression, and the killing of demonstrators or the arrest of social movement leaders could trigger more violence. Businesses will also face increased operational disruption from road blockages across the country.

Background: Morales is competing with Arce for the nomination of the ruling Movement for Socialism party, or MAS, even though Bolivia's constitutional court ruled in December 2023 that the former president cannot run for reelection in 2025. The situation has led to a rift within the ruling party, which has fueled legislative gridlock and dozens of anti-government demonstrations throughout 2024. Bolivia also faced a failed coup attempt in June.

 

Somalia: Egypt Proceeds With New Heavy Weapons Shipment to Mogadishu

What Happened: Egypt delivered a new consignment of heavy weapons to Somalia, including anti-aircraft guns and artillery, Reuters reported on Sept. 23. Ethiopia and Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland condemned the move and expressed concerns that the weapons would fall into the hands of jihadist militants.

Why It Matters: Egypt is set to press ahead with additional deployments of heavy weapons and troops to Somalia in the coming months as part of its bilateral and multilateral commitments to Mogadishu, which will likely embolden Somalia's federal government at home and abroad. Domestically, Somalia's federal government will likely prove more assertive in its disputes with South West, Jubaland and Puntland states, which could result in localized clashes in these areas. Federal government forces could also ramp up their intimidation tactics against Ethiopian troops based in Somalia, which could trigger localized skirmishes and pull Ethiopian troops into clashes between Somalia's federal and state governments. These clashes would set the stage for a proxy conflict within Somalia pitting Egypt against Ethiopia, further escalating regional tensions. These clashes would also markedly raise the likelihood of a severe military escalation between Ethiopia and Somalia and could prompt Mogadishu to provide military support to rebel groups inside Ethiopia.

Background: Egypt is due to participate in the African Union's new peacekeeping Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, which will begin in early 2025, replacing the current African Union Mission in Somalia. Egypt is expected to deploy 5,000 troops to the country as part of AUSSOM, with speculation that it will deploy a further 5,000 troops on a bilateral basis. Somalia's federal government has urged Ethiopia to withdraw its 8,000-11,000 troops due to the dispute over Ethiopia's port deal with Somaliland, but Somalia's South West and Jubaland states have opposed these calls, causing tensions with the federal government.

 

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Commence Storm of Vuhledar

What Happened: Russian forces began storming the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, entering the town for the first time, Reuters reported on Sept. 24. Russian troops are simultaneously encircling the town, which had been heavily fortified by Ukrainian forces, from the west and northeast, and the Ukrainian position there is likely to fall in the coming days.

Why It Matters: Vuhledar is strategically significant due to its location at the nexus of the southern Zaporizhzhia front and the eastern Donbas front. As the closest Ukrainian-controlled town to Ukraine's Russia-controlled city of Mariupol and the Sea of Azov, Kyiv uses the area to attempt to strike Russian rail and other transportation infrastructure linking southern Ukraine to Russia. The town's loss, along with possible further Russian advances in the sector against less well fortified positions, will relieve Russian logistical stress in southern Ukraine and enable Russia to move forces between the fronts more safely. The loss of Vuhledar will therefore fuel questions in Ukraine over whether the forces used in Ukraine's August incursion into Russia's Kursk region could have been better used to reinforce Ukraine's beleaguered units in Donbas at key positions like Vuhledar.

Background: Russian forces have continued to take ground in the Donbas in recent weeks, gaining ground toward Toretsk and Pokrovsk farther north in the Donetsk region. Vuhledar had been the location of numerous failed major Russian offensive operations since 2022.

 

China: Monetary Stimulus Not Enough To Spur Growth

What Happened: China's central bank announced a raft of measures to support the economy, including cutting the reserve requirement ratios for banks by 50 basis points and pledging a further 25-50 basis point cut later in 2024, Reuters reported on Sept. 24. The bank also dropped the seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%, which Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng said he expects will be followed by a 0.3% drop in the medium-term lending facility and a 0.2%-0.25% drop in the loan prime rate and deposit rates.

Why It Matters: This raft of monetary policy measures shows Beijing's heavy concern about China's weak economic recovery. However, credit demand remains low, so these measures are unlikely to significantly boost business or household consumption or revive housing purchases without fiscal support measures. Even so, Beijing remains hesitant to roll out such fiscal measures given local government debt issues and the harm they would do to state plans to evolve China's economy into a more stable and healthy growth model reliant on domestic consumption and investment into productive industries and less reliant on housing market speculation.

Background: The central bank also pledged to guide commercial banks to drop mortgage rates by 0.5%, lowered the minimum downpayment for second-time home-buyers from 25% to 15%, and allowed commercial banks to use 100% (up from 60%) of the 300 billion yuan ($42.66 million) in re-lending loan facility to finance loans for state-owned enterprises to acquire unsold apartments and turn them into affordable housing.

 s

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SkipsList" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to skipslist+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/skipslist/CACTjsm2DT_QPphDcbaX7FruTJHMLQjjRHs3pHGUdfGGHzWhu1g%40mail.gmail.com.